bayesRatings

Cowboys at Raiders

NFL · Monday, Nov 17 · 7:15 PM CT · Allegiant Stadium · Final DAL 33 – LV 16
← NFL / Nov 17, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL3217233
LV630716
Team box
DAL·LV
381
total yards
236
267
passing yards
209
114
rushing yards
27
24
first downs
17
4-10
third downs
3-12
1
turnovers
1
33:36
time of possession
26:24
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Dak PrescottDAL25/3326840
Geno SmithLV27/4223811
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Javonte WilliamsDAL22930
Geno SmithLV4140
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
George PickensDAL91441
Brock BowersLV7720

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LV +22
DAL +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LV 3 · DAL 22lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 54%, LV 46% · Updated Nov 17, 2025

Expected margin
DAL by 1.1
Expected score
DAL 24.1 – 23.0 LV
Expected total
47.1
CowboysThe matchupRaiders
−120Our fair odds+120
24.1Expected points23.0
−0.33Power rating−0.80
29.2Points / game15.4
30.8Allowed / game24.4
378Total yards / game273
5.9Yards / play4.8
258Passing yards / game185
3−5−1Season record2−7
3−6−1Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · LV chance
Our model fair54.5%45.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Cowboys−12054%————
LVLas Vegas Raiders+12046%————
SpreadDAL by 1.1
DALDallas Cowboys−1.1our margin————
LVLas Vegas Raiders+1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 47.1
Over47.1our total————
Under47.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Dallas Cowboys by 1.1 expected
Dallas Cowboys by 38 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 37 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 36 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 35 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 34 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 33 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 32 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 31 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 30 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 29 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 28 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 27 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 26 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 25 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 24 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 23 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 22 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 21 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 20 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 19 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 18 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 17 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 16 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 15 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 14 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 13 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 12 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 11 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 10 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 9 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 8 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 7 points: 5%Dallas Cowboys by 6 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 5 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 4 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 3 points: 9%Dallas Cowboys by 2 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 1 point: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 2 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 3 points: 7%Las Vegas Raiders by 4 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 5 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 6 points: 4%Las Vegas Raiders by 7 points: 4%Las Vegas Raiders by 8 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 9 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 10 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 11 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 12 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 13 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 14 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 15 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 16 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 17 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 18 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 19 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 20 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 21 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 22 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 23 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 24 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 25 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 26 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 27 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 28 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 29 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 30 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 31 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 32 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 33 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 34 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 35 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 36 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 37 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 38 points: <1%
← DAL wins byLV wins by →
Dallas Cowboys wins by 3 or more50%
Dallas Cowboys wins by 7 or more31%
Dallas Cowboys wins by 10 or more23%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

47.1 expected
13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 1%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 40.566%
Total over 47.546%
Total over 54.529%
Total from 41 to 5437%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
DALDak Prescott · last 3 games: 64% completions, 234 yds/game, 4 TD, 3 INTstarted
LVGeno Smith · last 3 games: 68% completions, 165 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·LV
Nov 3, 2025 vs ARI
last game
Nov 6, 2025 at DEN
13 days
days of rest
10 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
DAL·LV
−0.33
rating (0 = average)
−0.80
29.2
points / game
15.4
30.8
points allowed / game
24.4
3−5−1
season record
2−7
2−1−1
home record
1−3
1−4
away record
1−4
L2
streak
L3
3−6−1
last 10
2−8
378
total yards / game
273
5.9
yards / play
4.8
258
passing yards / game
185
121
rushing yards / game
87
23.0
first downs / game
16.3
1.2
turnovers / game
1.6

Rating Trend

DAL · LV · 30 days
Dallas CowboysLas Vegas Raiders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · LV 1−0
Nov 25, 2021at DALLV 36 − 33

DAL · Last 10

3−6−1 · streak L2
Nov 3, 2025vs ARI17 − 27L
Oct 26, 2025at DEN24 − 44L
Oct 19, 2025vs WSH44 − 22W
Oct 12, 2025at CAR27 − 30L
Oct 5, 2025at NYJ37 − 22W
Sep 28, 2025vs GB40 − 40T
Sep 21, 2025at CHI14 − 31L
Sep 14, 2025vs NYG40 − 37W
Sep 4, 2025at PHI20 − 24L
Jan 5, 2025vs WSH19 − 23L

LV · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Nov 6, 2025at DEN7 − 10L
Nov 2, 2025vs JAX29 − 30L
Oct 19, 2025at KC0 − 31L
Oct 12, 2025vs TEN20 − 10W
Oct 5, 2025at IND6 − 40L
Sep 28, 2025vs CHI24 − 25L
Sep 21, 2025at WSH24 − 41L
Sep 15, 2025vs LAC9 − 20L
Sep 7, 2025at NE20 − 13W
Jan 5, 2025vs LAC20 − 34L