bayesRatings

Eagles at Cowboys

NFL · Sunday, Nov 23 · 3:25 PM CT · AT&T Stadium · Final PHI 21 – DAL 24
← NFL / Nov 23, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHI1470021
DAL0771024
Team box
PHI·DAL
339
total yards
473
276
passing yards
348
63
rushing yards
125
19
first downs
25
5-12
third downs
5-12
2
turnovers
2
30:58
time of possession
29:02
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jalen HurtsPHI27/3928910
Dak PrescottDAL23/3635421
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jalen HurtsPHI7332
Javonte WilliamsDAL20870
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
A.J. BrownPHI81101
George PickensDAL91461

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +21
PHI +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 3 · PHI 21lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 70%, DAL 30% · Updated Nov 23, 2025

Expected margin
PHI by 6.2
Expected score
PHI 31.3 – 25.1 DAL
Expected total
56.4
EaglesThe matchupCowboys
−238Our fair odds+238
31.3Expected points25.1
+0.99Power rating−0.23
23.4Points / game29.6
20.1Allowed / game29.3
300Total yards / game379
5.2Yards / play5.9
185Passing yards / game259
8−2Season record4−5−1
8−2Last 104−5−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · DAL chance
Our model fair70.4%29.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles−23870%————
DALDallas Cowboys+23830%————
SpreadPHI by 6.2
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles−6.2our margin————
DALDallas Cowboys+6.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 56.4
Over56.4our total————
Under56.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Eagles by 6.2 expected
Philadelphia Eagles by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 34 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 31 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 28 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 26 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 25 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 24 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 23 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 21 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 20 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 17 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 16 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 14 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 13 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 12 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 11 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 10 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 9 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 8 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 7 points: 5%Philadelphia Eagles by 6 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 5 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 4 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 3 points: 9%Philadelphia Eagles by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 1 point: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 2 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 3 points: 6%Dallas Cowboys by 4 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 5 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 6 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 7 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 8 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 9 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 10 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 11 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 12 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 13 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 14 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 15 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 16 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 17 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 18 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 19 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 20 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 21 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 22 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 23 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 24 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 25 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 26 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 27 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 28 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 29 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 30 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 31 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 32 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 33 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 34 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 35 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 36 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 37 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 38 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 39 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 40 points: <1%
← PHI wins byDAL wins by →
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 3 or more64%
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 7 or more46%
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 10 or more37%
Within 3 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

56.4 expected
20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: <1%27 points: <1%28 points: <1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 2%38 points: 1%39 points: 1%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 2%44 points: 2%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 3%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 2%68 points: 2%69 points: 2%70 points: 1%71 points: 2%72 points: 1%73 points: 2%74 points: 2%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: 1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: 1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%97 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 49.565%
Total over 56.549%
Total over 63.533%
Total from 50 to 6332%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
PHIJalen Hurts · last 3 games: 59% completions, 166 yds/game, 5 TD, 0 INTstarted
DALDak Prescott · last 3 games: 66% completions, 235 yds/game, 5 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·DAL
Nov 16, 2025 vs DET
last game
Nov 17, 2025 at LV
6 days
days of rest
5 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 10+ games
PHI·DAL
+0.99
rating (0 = average)
−0.23
23.4
points / game
29.6
20.1
points allowed / game
29.3
8−2
season record
4−5−1
4−1
home record
2−1−1
4−1
away record
2−4
W4
streak
W1
8−2
last 10
4−5−1
300
total yards / game
379
5.2
yards / play
5.9
185
passing yards / game
259
115
rushing yards / game
120
17.2
first downs / game
23.1
0.4
turnovers / game
1.2

Rating Trend

PHI · DAL · 32 days
Philadelphia EaglesDallas Cowboys
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · DAL 4−5
Sep 4, 2025at PHIPHI 24 − 20
Dec 29, 2024at PHIPHI 41 − 7
Nov 10, 2024at DALPHI 34 − 6
Dec 10, 2023at DALDAL 33 − 13
Nov 5, 2023at PHIPHI 28 − 23
Dec 24, 2022at DALDAL 40 − 34
Oct 16, 2022at PHIPHI 26 − 17
Jan 8, 2022at PHIDAL 51 − 26
Sep 27, 2021at DALDAL 41 − 21

PHI · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
Nov 16, 2025vs DET16 − 9W
Nov 10, 2025at GB10 − 7W
Oct 26, 2025vs NYG38 − 20W
Oct 19, 2025at MIN28 − 22W
Oct 9, 2025at NYG17 − 34L
Oct 5, 2025vs DEN17 − 21L
Sep 28, 2025at TB31 − 25W
Sep 21, 2025vs LAR33 − 26W
Sep 14, 2025at KC20 − 17W
Sep 4, 2025vs DAL24 − 20W

DAL · Last 10

4−5−1 · streak W1
Nov 17, 2025at LV33 − 16W
Nov 3, 2025vs ARI17 − 27L
Oct 26, 2025at DEN24 − 44L
Oct 19, 2025vs WSH44 − 22W
Oct 12, 2025at CAR27 − 30L
Oct 5, 2025at NYJ37 − 22W
Sep 28, 2025vs GB40 − 40T
Sep 21, 2025at CHI14 − 31L
Sep 14, 2025vs NYG40 − 37W
Sep 4, 2025at PHI20 − 24L