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Commanders at Eagles

NFL · Sunday, Jan 4 · 3:25 PM CT · Lincoln Financial Field · Final WSH 24 – PHI 17
← NFL / Jan 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
WSH01001424
PHI0710017
Team box
WSH·PHI
274
total yards
307
131
passing yards
227
143
rushing yards
80
25
first downs
18
6-11
third downs
6-14
2
turnovers
1
34:09
time of possession
25:51
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Josh JohnsonWSH14/2213111
Tanner McKeePHI21/4024111
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Chris Rodriguez Jr.WSH16651
Tank BigsbyPHI16751
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Terry McLaurinWSH4570
DeVonta SmithPHI3520

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +7
WSH +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHI 7 · WSH 7lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 19%, PHI 81% · Updated Jan 4

Expected margin
PHI by 11.9
Expected score
PHI 28.9 – 17.1 WSH
Expected total
46.0
CommandersThe matchupEagles
+429Our fair odds−429
17.1Expected points28.9
−0.57Power rating+0.74
20.8Points / game22.6
27.1Allowed / game18.8
322Total yards / game312
5.6Yards / play5.3
187Passing yards / game192
4−12Season record11−5
1−9Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · PHI chance
Our model fair18.9%81.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Commanders+42919%————
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles−42981%————
SpreadPHI by 11.9
WSHWashington Commanders+11.9our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles−11.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 46.0
Over46.0our total————
Under46.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Eagles by 11.9 expected
Washington Commanders by 49 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 48 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 47 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 46 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 45 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 44 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 43 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 42 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 41 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 40 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 39 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 38 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 37 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 36 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 35 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 34 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 33 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 32 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 31 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 30 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 29 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 28 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 27 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 26 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 25 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 24 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 23 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 22 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 21 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 20 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 19 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 18 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 17 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 16 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 15 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 14 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 13 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 12 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 11 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 10 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 9 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 8 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 7 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 6 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 5 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 4 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 3 points: 5%Washington Commanders by 2 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 1 point: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 2 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 3 points: 6%Philadelphia Eagles by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 6 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 7 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 8 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 9 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 10 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 11 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 12 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 13 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 14 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 15 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 17 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 18 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 20 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 21 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 23 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 24 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 25 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 26 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 27 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 28 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 29 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 30 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 31 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 32 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 34 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 35 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 36 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 37 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 38 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 40 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 42 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 44 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 45 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 46 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 47 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 48 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 49 points: <1%
← WSH wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 3 or more75%
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 7 or more60%
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 10 or more52%
Within 3 points either way18%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

46.0 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 39.566%
Total over 46.546%
Total over 53.529%
Total from 40 to 5338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
WSHJosh Johnson · last 3 games: 62% completions, 86 yds/game, 0 TD, 1 INTstarted
PHITanner McKee · last 3 games: 69% completions, 119 yds/game, 4 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·PHI
Dec 25, 2025 vs DAL
last game
Dec 28, 2025 at BUF
9 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 16+ games
WSH·PHI
−0.57
rating (0 = average)
+0.74
20.8
points / game
22.6
27.1
points allowed / game
18.8
4−12
season record
11−5
2−6
home record
5−2
2−6
away record
6−3
L2
streak
W3
1−9
last 10
7−3
322
total yards / game
312
5.6
yards / play
5.3
187
passing yards / game
192
134
rushing yards / game
119
18.6
first downs / game
18.0
1.3
turnovers / game
0.9

Rating Trend

WSH · PHI · 53 days
Washington CommandersPhiladelphia Eagles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 8−2
Dec 20, 2025at WSHPHI 29 − 18
Jan 26, 2025at PHIPHI 55 − 23post
Dec 22, 2024at WSHWSH 36 − 33
Nov 14, 2024at PHIPHI 26 − 18
Oct 29, 2023at WSHPHI 38 − 31
Oct 1, 2023at PHIPHI 34 − 31
Nov 14, 2022at PHIWSH 32 − 21
Sep 25, 2022at WSHPHI 24 − 8
Jan 2, 2022at WSHPHI 20 − 16
Dec 21, 2021at PHIPHI 27 − 17

WSH · Last 10

1−9 · streak L2
Dec 25, 2025vs DAL23 − 30L
Dec 20, 2025vs PHI18 − 29L
Dec 14, 2025at NYG29 − 21W
Dec 7, 2025at MIN0 − 31L
Nov 30, 2025vs DEN26 − 27L
Nov 16, 2025at MIA13 − 16L
Nov 9, 2025vs DET22 − 44L
Nov 2, 2025vs SEA14 − 38L
Oct 27, 2025at KC7 − 28L
Oct 19, 2025at DAL22 − 44L

PHI · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Dec 28, 2025at BUF13 − 12W
Dec 20, 2025at WSH29 − 18W
Dec 14, 2025vs LV31 − 0W
Dec 8, 2025at LAC19 − 22L
Nov 28, 2025vs CHI15 − 24L
Nov 23, 2025at DAL21 − 24L
Nov 16, 2025vs DET16 − 9W
Nov 10, 2025at GB10 − 7W
Oct 26, 2025vs NYG38 − 20W
Oct 19, 2025at MIN28 − 22W