bayesRatings

Eagles at Bills

NFL · Sunday, Dec 28 · 3:25 PM CT · Highmark Stadium (Old) · Final PHI 13 – BUF 12
← NFL / Dec 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHI760013
BUF0001212
Team box
PHI·BUF
190
total yards
331
108
passing yards
211
82
rushing yards
120
11
first downs
20
3-13
third downs
6-15
0
turnovers
1
24:45
time of possession
35:15
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jalen HurtsPHI13/2711010
Josh AllenBUF23/3526200
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Saquon BarkleyPHI19680
James Cook IIIBUF20740
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
A.J. BrownPHI5680
Brandin CooksBUF41010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BUF +13
PHI +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BUF 0 · PHI 13lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 42%, BUF 58% · Updated Dec 28, 2025

Expected margin
BUF by 2.2
Expected score
BUF 25.7 – 23.4 PHI
Expected total
49.1
EaglesThe matchupBills
+141Our fair odds−141
23.4Expected points25.7
+0.70Power rating+0.82
23.3Points / game28.9
19.3Allowed / game22.9
320Total yards / game373
5.4Yards / play6.0
198Passing yards / game214
10−5Season record11−4
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · BUF chance
Our model fair41.5%58.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles+14142%————
BUFBuffalo Bills−14158%————
SpreadBUF by 2.2
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles+2.2our margin————
BUFBuffalo Bills−2.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 49.1
Over49.1our total————
Under49.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Buffalo Bills by 2.2 expected
Philadelphia Eagles by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 28 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 25 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 24 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 23 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 17 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 15 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 14 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 13 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 12 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 11 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 10 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 9 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 8 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 7 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 6 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 5 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 4 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 3 points: 8%Philadelphia Eagles by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Buffalo Bills by 1 point: 2%Buffalo Bills by 2 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 3 points: 7%Buffalo Bills by 4 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 5 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 6 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 7 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 8 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 9 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 10 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 11 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 12 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 13 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 14 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 15 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 16 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 17 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 18 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 19 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 20 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 21 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 22 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 23 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 24 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 25 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 26 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 27 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 28 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 29 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 30 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 31 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 32 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 33 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 34 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 35 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 36 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 37 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 38 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 39 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 40 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 41 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 42 points: <1%
← PHI wins byBUF wins by →
Buffalo Bills wins by 3 or more49%
Buffalo Bills wins by 7 or more33%
Buffalo Bills wins by 10 or more25%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

49.1 expected
15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 2%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 42.566%
Total over 49.546%
Total over 56.530%
Total from 43 to 5636%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
PHIJalen Hurts · last 3 games: 65% completions, 200 yds/game, 5 TD, 4 INTstarted
BUFJosh Allen · last 3 games: 71% completions, 191 yds/game, 6 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·BUF
Dec 20, 2025 at WSH
last game
Dec 21, 2025 at CLE
7 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
PHI·BUF
+0.70
rating (0 = average)
+0.82
23.3
points / game
28.9
19.3
points allowed / game
22.9
10−5
season record
11−4
5−2
home record
6−1
5−3
away record
5−3
W2
streak
W4
6−4
last 10
7−3
320
total yards / game
373
5.4
yards / play
6.0
198
passing yards / game
214
122
rushing yards / game
159
18.5
first downs / game
21.6
0.9
turnovers / game
1.2

Rating Trend

PHI · BUF · 50 days
Philadelphia EaglesBuffalo Bills
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · BUF 0−1
Nov 26, 2023at PHIPHI 37 − 34

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Dec 20, 2025at WSH29 − 18W
Dec 14, 2025vs LV31 − 0W
Dec 8, 2025at LAC19 − 22L
Nov 28, 2025vs CHI15 − 24L
Nov 23, 2025at DAL21 − 24L
Nov 16, 2025vs DET16 − 9W
Nov 10, 2025at GB10 − 7W
Oct 26, 2025vs NYG38 − 20W
Oct 19, 2025at MIN28 − 22W
Oct 9, 2025at NYG17 − 34L

BUF · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Dec 21, 2025at CLE23 − 20W
Dec 14, 2025at NE35 − 31W
Dec 7, 2025vs CIN39 − 34W
Nov 30, 2025at PIT26 − 7W
Nov 20, 2025at HOU19 − 23L
Nov 16, 2025vs TB44 − 32W
Nov 9, 2025at MIA13 − 30L
Nov 2, 2025vs KC28 − 21W
Oct 26, 2025at CAR40 − 9W
Oct 13, 2025at ATL14 − 24L