bayesRatings

Bills at Browns

NFL · Sunday, Dec 21 · 12:00 PM CT · Huntington Bank Field · Final BUF 23 – CLE 20
← NFL / Dec 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BUF7133023
CLE737320
Team box
BUF·CLE
259
total yards
294
95
passing yards
134
164
rushing yards
160
16
first downs
22
2-8
third downs
8-14
0
turnovers
2
24:37
time of possession
35:23
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Josh AllenBUF12/1913000
Shedeur SandersCLE20/2915712
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
James Cook IIIBUF161172
Shedeur SandersCLE4490
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Khalil ShakirBUF4340
Trayveon WilliamsCLE4380

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +13
BUF +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CLE 7 · BUF 13lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BUF 83%, CLE 17% · Updated Dec 21, 2025

Expected margin
BUF by 13.2
Expected score
BUF 29.4 – 16.2 CLE
Expected total
45.6
BillsThe matchupBrowns
−502Our fair odds+502
29.4Expected points16.2
+0.83Power rating−1.16
29.4Points / game16.1
23.1Allowed / game23.7
381Total yards / game264
6.0Yards / play4.3
223Passing yards / game172
10−4Season record3−11
6−4Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BUF chance · CLE chance
Our model fair83.4%16.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BUFBuffalo Bills−50283%————
CLECleveland Browns+50217%————
SpreadBUF by 13.2
BUFBuffalo Bills−13.2our margin————
CLECleveland Browns+13.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 45.6
Over45.6our total————
Under45.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Buffalo Bills by 13.2 expected
Buffalo Bills by 40 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 39 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 38 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 37 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 36 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 35 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 34 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 33 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 32 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 31 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 30 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 29 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 28 points: 7%Buffalo Bills by 27 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 26 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 25 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 24 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 23 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 22 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 21 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 20 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 19 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 18 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 17 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 16 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 15 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 14 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 13 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 12 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 11 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 10 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 9 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 8 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 7 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 6 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 5 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 4 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 3 points: 5%Buffalo Bills by 2 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 1 point: 1%Tie: <1%Cleveland Browns by 1 point: 1%Cleveland Browns by 2 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 3 points: 3%Cleveland Browns by 4 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 5 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 6 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 7 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 8 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 9 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 10 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 11 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 12 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 13 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 14 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 15 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 16 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 17 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 18 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 19 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 22 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 23 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 24 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 25 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 26 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 27 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 28 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 40 points: <1%
← BUF wins byCLE wins by →
Buffalo Bills wins by 3 or more76%
Buffalo Bills wins by 7 or more66%
Buffalo Bills wins by 10 or more61%
Within 3 points either way13%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

45.6 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 38.568%
Total over 45.548%
Total over 52.530%
Total from 39 to 5238%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
BUFJosh Allen · last 3 games: 71% completions, 189 yds/game, 7 TD, 1 INTstarted
CLEShedeur Sanders · last 3 games: 56% completions, 230 yds/game, 4 TD, 4 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BUF·CLE
Dec 14, 2025 at NE
last game
Dec 14, 2025 at CHI
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
BUF·CLE
+0.83
rating (0 = average)
−1.16
29.4
points / game
16.1
23.1
points allowed / game
23.7
10−4
season record
3−11
6−1
home record
2−5
4−3
away record
1−6
W3
streak
L3
6−4
last 10
2−8
381
total yards / game
264
6.0
yards / play
4.3
223
passing yards / game
172
158
rushing yards / game
92
22.0
first downs / game
16.0
1.3
turnovers / game
1.4

Rating Trend

BUF · CLE · 46 days
Buffalo BillsCleveland Browns
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · CLE 0−1
Nov 20, 2022at BUFBUF 31 − 23

BUF · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Dec 14, 2025at NE35 − 31W
Dec 7, 2025vs CIN39 − 34W
Nov 30, 2025at PIT26 − 7W
Nov 20, 2025at HOU19 − 23L
Nov 16, 2025vs TB44 − 32W
Nov 9, 2025at MIA13 − 30L
Nov 2, 2025vs KC28 − 21W
Oct 26, 2025at CAR40 − 9W
Oct 13, 2025at ATL14 − 24L
Oct 5, 2025vs NE20 − 23L

CLE · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Dec 14, 2025at CHI3 − 31L
Dec 7, 2025vs TEN29 − 31L
Nov 30, 2025vs SF8 − 26L
Nov 23, 2025at LV24 − 10W
Nov 16, 2025vs BAL16 − 23L
Nov 9, 2025at NYJ20 − 27L
Oct 26, 2025at NE13 − 32L
Oct 19, 2025vs MIA31 − 6W
Oct 12, 2025at PIT9 − 23L
Oct 5, 2025vs MIN17 − 21L