bayesRatings

Bills at Patriots

NFL · Sunday, Dec 14 · 12:00 PM CT · Gillette Stadium · Final BUF 35 – NE 31
← NFL / Dec 14, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BUF07141435
NE14100731
Team box
BUF·NE
349
total yards
385
181
passing yards
139
168
rushing yards
246
22
first downs
19
8-14
third downs
5-10
0
turnovers
1
35:21
time of possession
24:39
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Josh AllenBUF19/2819330
Drake MayeNE14/2315501
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
James Cook IIIBUF221072
TreVeyon HendersonNE141482
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Khalil ShakirBUF5650
Mack HollinsNE4410

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NE +21
BUF +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NE 21 · BUF 4lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BUF 55%, NE 45% · Updated Dec 14, 2025

Expected margin
BUF by 1.5
Expected score
BUF 24.8 – 23.3 NE
Expected total
48.1
BillsThe matchupPatriots
−122Our fair odds+122
24.8Expected points23.3
+0.77Power rating+0.30
28.9Points / game27.0
22.5Allowed / game18.5
384Total yards / game363
6.1Yards / play5.9
226Passing yards / game250
9−4Season record11−2
6−4Last 1010−0

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BUF chance · NE chance
Our model fair54.9%45.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BUFBuffalo Bills−12255%————
NENew England Patriots+12245%————
SpreadBUF by 1.5
BUFBuffalo Bills−1.5our margin————
NENew England Patriots+1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 48.1
Over48.1our total————
Under48.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Buffalo Bills by 1.5 expected
Buffalo Bills by 38 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 37 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 36 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 35 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 34 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 33 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 32 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 31 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 30 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 29 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 28 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 27 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 26 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 25 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 24 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 23 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 22 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 21 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 20 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 19 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 18 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 17 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 16 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 15 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 14 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 13 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 12 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 11 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 10 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 9 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 8 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 7 points: 5%Buffalo Bills by 6 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 5 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 4 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 3 points: 9%Buffalo Bills by 2 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New England Patriots by 1 point: 2%New England Patriots by 2 points: 3%New England Patriots by 3 points: 7%New England Patriots by 4 points: 2%New England Patriots by 5 points: 2%New England Patriots by 6 points: 4%New England Patriots by 7 points: 4%New England Patriots by 8 points: 2%New England Patriots by 9 points: 1%New England Patriots by 10 points: 2%New England Patriots by 11 points: 1%New England Patriots by 12 points: 1%New England Patriots by 13 points: 1%New England Patriots by 14 points: 1%New England Patriots by 15 points: 1%New England Patriots by 16 points: 1%New England Patriots by 17 points: 2%New England Patriots by 18 points: 1%New England Patriots by 19 points: <1%New England Patriots by 20 points: 1%New England Patriots by 21 points: 1%New England Patriots by 22 points: <1%New England Patriots by 23 points: 1%New England Patriots by 24 points: 1%New England Patriots by 25 points: <1%New England Patriots by 26 points: <1%New England Patriots by 27 points: <1%New England Patriots by 28 points: <1%New England Patriots by 29 points: <1%New England Patriots by 30 points: <1%New England Patriots by 31 points: <1%New England Patriots by 32 points: <1%New England Patriots by 33 points: <1%New England Patriots by 34 points: <1%New England Patriots by 35 points: <1%New England Patriots by 36 points: <1%New England Patriots by 37 points: <1%New England Patriots by 38 points: <1%
← BUF wins byNE wins by →
Buffalo Bills wins by 3 or more51%
Buffalo Bills wins by 7 or more32%
Buffalo Bills wins by 10 or more24%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

48.1 expected
14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 1%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 41.566%
Total over 48.546%
Total over 55.529%
Total from 42 to 5536%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
BUFJosh Allen · last 3 games: 72% completions, 209 yds/game, 4 TD, 3 INTstarted
NEDrake Maye · last 3 games: 71% completions, 286 yds/game, 4 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BUF·NE
Dec 7, 2025 vs CIN
last game
Dec 1, 2025 vs NYG
6 days
days of rest
12 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
BUF·NE
+0.77
rating (0 = average)
+0.30
28.9
points / game
27.0
22.5
points allowed / game
18.5
9−4
season record
11−2
6−1
home record
5−2
3−3
away record
6−0
W2
streak
W10
6−4
last 10
10−0
384
total yards / game
363
6.1
yards / play
5.9
226
passing yards / game
250
158
rushing yards / game
113
22.0
first downs / game
20.5
1.4
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

BUF · NE · 42 days
Buffalo BillsNew England Patriots
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NE 4−6
Oct 5, 2025at BUFNE 23 − 20
Jan 5, 2025at NENE 23 − 16
Dec 22, 2024at BUFBUF 24 − 21
Dec 31, 2023at BUFBUF 27 − 21
Oct 22, 2023at NENE 29 − 25
Jan 8, 2023at BUFBUF 35 − 23
Dec 1, 2022at NEBUF 24 − 10
Jan 15, 2022at BUFBUF 47 − 17post
Dec 26, 2021at NEBUF 33 − 21
Dec 6, 2021at BUFNE 14 − 10

BUF · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Dec 7, 2025vs CIN39 − 34W
Nov 30, 2025at PIT26 − 7W
Nov 20, 2025at HOU19 − 23L
Nov 16, 2025vs TB44 − 32W
Nov 9, 2025at MIA13 − 30L
Nov 2, 2025vs KC28 − 21W
Oct 26, 2025at CAR40 − 9W
Oct 13, 2025at ATL14 − 24L
Oct 5, 2025vs NE20 − 23L
Sep 28, 2025vs NO31 − 19W

NE · Last 10

10−0 · streak W10
Dec 1, 2025vs NYG33 − 15W
Nov 23, 2025at CIN26 − 20W
Nov 13, 2025vs NYJ27 − 14W
Nov 9, 2025at TB28 − 23W
Nov 2, 2025vs ATL24 − 23W
Oct 26, 2025vs CLE32 − 13W
Oct 19, 2025at TEN31 − 13W
Oct 12, 2025at NO25 − 19W
Oct 5, 2025at BUF23 − 20W
Sep 28, 2025vs CAR42 − 13W