bayesRatings

Bills at Texans

NFL · Thursday, Nov 20 · 7:15 PM CT · Reliant Stadium · Final BUF 19 – HOU 23
← NFL / Nov 20, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BUF6100319
HOU3173023
Team box
BUF·HOU
326
total yards
261
183
passing yards
153
143
rushing yards
108
14
first downs
15
5-16
third downs
2-12
3
turnovers
0
32:22
time of possession
27:38
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Josh AllenBUF24/3425302
Davis MillsHOU16/3015320
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
James Cook IIIBUF171161
Woody MarksHOU16740
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Khalil ShakirBUF81100
Nico CollinsHOU3550

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +7
BUF +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 7 · BUF 6lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BUF 53%, HOU 47% · Updated Nov 20, 2025

Expected margin
BUF by 1.3
Expected score
BUF 22.3 – 21.1 HOU
Expected total
43.4
BillsThe matchupTexans
−113Our fair odds+113
22.3Expected points21.1
+0.72Power rating+0.29
29.2Points / game22.0
22.9Allowed / game16.3
387Total yards / game330
6.3Yards / play5.1
240Passing yards / game222
7−3Season record5−5
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BUF chance · HOU chance
Our model fair53.1%46.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BUFBuffalo Bills−11353%————
HOUHouston Texans+11347%————
SpreadBUF by 1.3
BUFBuffalo Bills−1.3our margin————
HOUHouston Texans+1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 43.4
Over43.4our total————
Under43.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Buffalo Bills by 1.3 expected
Buffalo Bills by 37 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 36 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 35 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 34 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 33 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 32 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 31 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 30 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 29 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 28 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 27 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 26 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 25 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 24 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 23 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 22 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 21 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 20 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 19 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 18 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 17 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 16 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 15 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 14 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 13 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 12 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 11 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 10 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 9 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 8 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 7 points: 5%Buffalo Bills by 6 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 5 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 4 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 3 points: 9%Buffalo Bills by 2 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Houston Texans by 1 point: 2%Houston Texans by 2 points: 3%Houston Texans by 3 points: 7%Houston Texans by 4 points: 2%Houston Texans by 5 points: 2%Houston Texans by 6 points: 4%Houston Texans by 7 points: 4%Houston Texans by 8 points: 2%Houston Texans by 9 points: 1%Houston Texans by 10 points: 2%Houston Texans by 11 points: 1%Houston Texans by 12 points: 1%Houston Texans by 13 points: 1%Houston Texans by 14 points: 1%Houston Texans by 15 points: 1%Houston Texans by 16 points: 1%Houston Texans by 17 points: 2%Houston Texans by 18 points: 1%Houston Texans by 19 points: <1%Houston Texans by 20 points: 1%Houston Texans by 21 points: 1%Houston Texans by 22 points: <1%Houston Texans by 23 points: 1%Houston Texans by 24 points: 1%Houston Texans by 25 points: <1%Houston Texans by 26 points: <1%Houston Texans by 27 points: <1%Houston Texans by 28 points: <1%Houston Texans by 29 points: <1%Houston Texans by 30 points: <1%Houston Texans by 31 points: <1%Houston Texans by 32 points: <1%Houston Texans by 33 points: <1%Houston Texans by 34 points: <1%Houston Texans by 35 points: <1%Houston Texans by 36 points: <1%Houston Texans by 37 points: <1%
← BUF wins byHOU wins by →
Buffalo Bills wins by 3 or more50%
Buffalo Bills wins by 7 or more31%
Buffalo Bills wins by 10 or more24%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

43.4 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 36.568%
Total over 43.547%
Total over 50.529%
Total from 37 to 5039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
BUFJosh Allen · last 3 games: 73% completions, 299 yds/game, 6 TD, 3 INTstarted
HOUDavis Mills · last 3 games: 60% completions, 234 yds/game, 3 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BUF·HOU
Nov 16, 2025 vs TB
last game
Nov 16, 2025 at TEN
3 days
days of rest
3 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 10+ games
BUF·HOU
+0.72
rating (0 = average)
+0.29
29.2
points / game
22.0
22.9
points allowed / game
16.3
7−3
season record
5−5
5−1
home record
3−2
2−2
away record
2−3
W1
streak
W2
7−3
last 10
5−5
387
total yards / game
330
6.3
yards / play
5.1
240
passing yards / game
222
148
rushing yards / game
108
22.4
first downs / game
19.3
1.2
turnovers / game
0.9

Rating Trend

BUF · HOU · 31 days
Buffalo BillsHouston Texans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · HOU 1−1
Oct 6, 2024at HOUHOU 23 − 20
Oct 3, 2021at BUFBUF 40 − 0

BUF · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Nov 16, 2025vs TB44 − 32W
Nov 9, 2025at MIA13 − 30L
Nov 2, 2025vs KC28 − 21W
Oct 26, 2025at CAR40 − 9W
Oct 13, 2025at ATL14 − 24L
Oct 5, 2025vs NE20 − 23L
Sep 28, 2025vs NO31 − 19W
Sep 18, 2025vs MIA31 − 21W
Sep 14, 2025at NYJ30 − 10W
Sep 7, 2025vs BAL41 − 40W

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Nov 16, 2025at TEN16 − 13W
Nov 9, 2025vs JAX36 − 29W
Nov 2, 2025vs DEN15 − 18L
Oct 26, 2025vs SF26 − 15W
Oct 20, 2025at SEA19 − 27L
Oct 5, 2025at BAL44 − 10W
Sep 28, 2025vs TEN26 − 0W
Sep 21, 2025at JAX10 − 17L
Sep 15, 2025vs TB19 − 20L
Sep 7, 2025at LAR9 − 14L