bayesRatings

Bills at Steelers

NFL · Sunday, Nov 30 · 3:25 PM CT · Acrisure Stadium · Final BUF 26 – PIT 7
← NFL / Nov 30, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BUF03131026
PIT07007
Team box
BUF·PIT
372
total yards
166
123
passing yards
108
249
rushing yards
58
26
first downs
10
8-15
third downs
3-9
2
turnovers
2
41:59
time of possession
18:01
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Josh AllenBUF15/2312311
Aaron RodgersPIT10/2111700
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
James Cook IIIBUF321440
Jaylen WarrenPIT10351
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
James Cook IIIBUF3330
Darnell WashingtonPIT2450

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +19
BUF +19
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PIT 7 · BUF 19lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BUF 56%, PIT 44% · Updated Nov 30, 2025

Expected margin
BUF by 2.8
Expected score
BUF 26.9 – 24.2 PIT
Expected total
51.1
BillsThe matchupSteelers
−129Our fair odds+129
26.9Expected points24.2
+0.66Power rating+0.07
28.3Points / game24.9
22.9Allowed / game23.9
382Total yards / game292
6.1Yards / play5.1
235Passing yards / game195
7−4Season record6−5
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BUF chance · PIT chance
Our model fair56.3%43.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BUFBuffalo Bills−12956%————
PITPittsburgh Steelers+12944%————
SpreadBUF by 2.8
BUFBuffalo Bills−2.8our margin————
PITPittsburgh Steelers+2.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 51.1
Over51.1our total————
Under51.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Buffalo Bills by 2.8 expected
Buffalo Bills by 39 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 38 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 37 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 36 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 35 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 34 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 33 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 32 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 31 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 30 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 29 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 28 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 27 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 26 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 25 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 24 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 23 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 22 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 21 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 20 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 19 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 18 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 17 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 16 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 15 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 14 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 13 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 12 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 11 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 10 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 9 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 8 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 7 points: 5%Buffalo Bills by 6 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 5 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 4 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 3 points: 9%Buffalo Bills by 2 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 1 point: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 2 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 3 points: 7%Pittsburgh Steelers by 4 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 5 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 6 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 7 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 8 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 9 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 10 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 11 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 12 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 13 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 14 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 15 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 16 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 17 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 18 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 19 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 20 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 21 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 22 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 23 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 24 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 25 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 26 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 27 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 28 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 29 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 30 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 31 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 32 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 33 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 34 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 35 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 36 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 37 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 38 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 39 points: <1%
← BUF wins byPIT wins by →
Buffalo Bills wins by 3 or more54%
Buffalo Bills wins by 7 or more35%
Buffalo Bills wins by 10 or more27%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

51.1 expected
16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 44.565%
Total over 51.546%
Total over 58.530%
Total from 45 to 5835%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
BUFJosh Allen · last 3 games: 68% completions, 292 yds/game, 5 TD, 5 INTstarted
PITAaron Rodgers · last 3 games: 62% completions, 160 yds/game, 3 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BUF·PIT
Nov 20, 2025 at HOU
last game
Nov 23, 2025 at CHI
9 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
BUF·PIT
+0.66
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
28.3
points / game
24.9
22.9
points allowed / game
23.9
7−4
season record
6−5
5−1
home record
4−2
2−3
away record
2−3
L1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
382
total yards / game
292
6.1
yards / play
5.1
235
passing yards / game
195
147
rushing yards / game
97
21.6
first downs / game
17.6
1.4
turnovers / game
1.1

Rating Trend

BUF · PIT · 36 days
Buffalo BillsPittsburgh Steelers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · PIT 1−2
Jan 15, 2024at BUFBUF 31 − 17post
Oct 9, 2022at BUFBUF 38 − 3
Sep 12, 2021at BUFPIT 23 − 16

BUF · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Nov 20, 2025at HOU19 − 23L
Nov 16, 2025vs TB44 − 32W
Nov 9, 2025at MIA13 − 30L
Nov 2, 2025vs KC28 − 21W
Oct 26, 2025at CAR40 − 9W
Oct 13, 2025at ATL14 − 24L
Oct 5, 2025vs NE20 − 23L
Sep 28, 2025vs NO31 − 19W
Sep 18, 2025vs MIA31 − 21W
Sep 14, 2025at NYJ30 − 10W

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Nov 23, 2025at CHI28 − 31L
Nov 16, 2025vs CIN34 − 12W
Nov 9, 2025at LAC10 − 25L
Nov 2, 2025vs IND27 − 20W
Oct 26, 2025vs GB25 − 35L
Oct 16, 2025at CIN31 − 33L
Oct 12, 2025vs CLE23 − 9W
Sep 28, 2025vs MIN24 − 21W
Sep 21, 2025at NE21 − 14W
Sep 14, 2025vs SEA17 − 31L