bayesRatings

Steelers at Bears

NFL · Sunday, Nov 23 · 12:00 PM CT · Soldier Field · Final PIT 28 – CHI 31
← NFL / Nov 23, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PIT7140728
CHI7107731
Team box
PIT·CHI
345
total yards
328
159
passing yards
229
186
rushing yards
99
22
first downs
19
8-14
third downs
7-13
2
turnovers
2
33:09
time of possession
26:51
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Mason RudolphPIT24/3117111
Caleb WilliamsCHI19/3523930
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Kenny GainwellPIT10920
Kyle MonangaiCHI12481
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Calvin Austin IIIPIT4360
DJ MooreCHI5642

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +10
PIT +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHI 10 · PIT 7lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 45%, CHI 55% · Updated Nov 23, 2025

Expected margin
CHI by 0.7
Expected score
CHI 24.2 – 23.5 PIT
Expected total
47.7
SteelersThe matchupBears
+121Our fair odds−121
23.5Expected points24.2
+0.11Power rating+0.02
24.6Points / game25.8
23.2Allowed / game26.4
287Total yards / game374
5.2Yards / play5.8
199Passing yards / game227
6−4Season record7−3
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · CHI chance
Our model fair45.3%54.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Steelers+12145%————
CHIChicago Bears−12155%————
SpreadCHI by 0.7
PITPittsburgh Steelers+0.7our margin————
CHIChicago Bears−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 47.7
Over47.7our total————
Under47.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Bears by 0.7 expected
Pittsburgh Steelers by 40 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 39 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 38 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 37 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 36 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 35 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 34 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 33 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 32 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 31 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 30 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 29 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 28 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 27 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 26 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 25 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 24 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 23 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 22 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 21 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 20 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 19 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 18 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 17 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 16 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 15 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 14 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 13 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 12 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 11 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 10 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 9 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 8 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 7 points: 5%Pittsburgh Steelers by 6 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 5 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 4 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 3 points: 9%Pittsburgh Steelers by 2 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Chicago Bears by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bears by 2 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 3 points: 7%Chicago Bears by 4 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 5 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 6 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 7 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 8 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 9 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 10 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 11 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 12 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 13 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 14 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 15 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 17 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 19 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 23 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 24 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 25 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 28 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 31 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 40 points: <1%
← PIT wins byCHI wins by →
Chicago Bears wins by 3 or more45%
Chicago Bears wins by 7 or more29%
Chicago Bears wins by 10 or more21%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

47.7 expected
13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 1%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 40.567%
Total over 47.548%
Total over 54.530%
Total from 41 to 5437%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
PITMason Rudolph · last 3 games: 78% completions, 70 yds/game, 1 TD, 0 INTstarted
CHICaleb Williams · last 3 games: 55% completions, 231 yds/game, 4 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·CHI
Nov 16, 2025 vs CIN
last game
Nov 16, 2025 at MIN
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 10+ games
PIT·CHI
+0.11
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
24.6
points / game
25.8
23.2
points allowed / game
26.4
6−4
season record
7−3
4−2
home record
3−1
2−2
away record
4−2
W1
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
7−3
287
total yards / game
374
5.2
yards / play
5.8
199
passing yards / game
227
88
rushing yards / game
147
17.2
first downs / game
20.7
1.0
turnovers / game
0.6

Rating Trend

PIT · CHI · 32 days
Pittsburgh SteelersChicago Bears
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · CHI 0−1
Nov 8, 2021at PITPIT 29 − 27

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Nov 16, 2025vs CIN34 − 12W
Nov 9, 2025at LAC10 − 25L
Nov 2, 2025vs IND27 − 20W
Oct 26, 2025vs GB25 − 35L
Oct 16, 2025at CIN31 − 33L
Oct 12, 2025vs CLE23 − 9W
Sep 28, 2025vs MIN24 − 21W
Sep 21, 2025at NE21 − 14W
Sep 14, 2025vs SEA17 − 31L
Sep 7, 2025at NYJ34 − 32W

CHI · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Nov 16, 2025at MIN19 − 17W
Nov 9, 2025vs NYG24 − 20W
Nov 2, 2025at CIN47 − 42W
Oct 26, 2025at BAL16 − 30L
Oct 19, 2025vs NO26 − 14W
Oct 13, 2025at WSH25 − 24W
Sep 28, 2025at LV25 − 24W
Sep 21, 2025vs DAL31 − 14W
Sep 14, 2025at DET21 − 52L
Sep 8, 2025vs MIN24 − 27L