bayesRatings

Bengals at Bills

NFL · Sunday, Dec 7 · 12:00 PM CT · Highmark Stadium (Old) · Final CIN 34 – BUF 39
← NFL / Dec 7, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CIN71401334
BUF3872139
Team box
CIN·BUF
338
total yards
416
276
passing yards
233
62
rushing yards
183
25
first downs
22
10-12
third downs
6-11
2
turnovers
1
28:12
time of possession
31:48
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Joe BurrowCIN25/3628442
Josh AllenBUF22/2825130
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Samaje PerineCIN6310
James Cook IIIBUF18800
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Tee HigginsCIN6922
Dawson KnoxBUF6930

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BUF +11
CIN +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BUF 11 · CIN 11lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 20%, BUF 80% · Updated Dec 7, 2025

Expected margin
BUF by 11.3
Expected score
BUF 34.6 – 23.3 CIN
Expected total
57.9
BengalsThe matchupBills
+389Our fair odds−389
23.3Expected points34.6
−0.37Power rating+0.78
23.3Points / game28.1
31.2Allowed / game21.6
313Total yards / game381
5.1Yards / play6.0
225Passing yards / game225
4−8Season record8−4
2−8Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · BUF chance
Our model fair20.5%79.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Bengals+38920%————
BUFBuffalo Bills−38980%————
SpreadBUF by 11.3
CINCincinnati Bengals+11.3our margin————
BUFBuffalo Bills−11.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 57.9
Over57.9our total————
Under57.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Buffalo Bills by 11.3 expected
Cincinnati Bengals by 49 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 48 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 47 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 46 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 45 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 44 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 43 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 42 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 41 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 40 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 39 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 38 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 37 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 36 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 35 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 34 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 33 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 32 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 31 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 30 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 29 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 28 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 27 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 26 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 25 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 24 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 23 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 22 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 21 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 20 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 19 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 18 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 17 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 16 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 15 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 14 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 13 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 12 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 11 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 10 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 9 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 8 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 7 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 6 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 5 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 4 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 3 points: 5%Cincinnati Bengals by 2 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Buffalo Bills by 1 point: 2%Buffalo Bills by 2 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 3 points: 6%Buffalo Bills by 4 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 5 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 6 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 7 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 8 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 9 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 10 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 11 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 12 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 13 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 14 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 15 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 16 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 17 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 18 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 19 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 20 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 21 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 22 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 23 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 24 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 25 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 26 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 27 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 28 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 29 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 30 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 31 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 32 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 33 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 34 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 35 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 36 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 37 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 38 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 39 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 40 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 41 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 42 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 43 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 44 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 45 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 46 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 47 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 48 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 49 points: <1%
← CIN wins byBUF wins by →
Buffalo Bills wins by 3 or more73%
Buffalo Bills wins by 7 or more59%
Buffalo Bills wins by 10 or more50%
Within 3 points either way19%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

57.9 expected
21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: <1%27 points: <1%28 points: <1%29 points: <1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 1%38 points: 1%39 points: 1%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 1%43 points: 2%44 points: 2%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 2%68 points: 2%69 points: 2%70 points: 2%71 points: 2%72 points: 2%73 points: 2%74 points: 2%75 points: 2%76 points: 2%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: 1%83 points: 1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: 1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: 1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%97 points: <1%98 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 50.566%
Total over 57.550%
Total over 64.534%
Total from 51 to 6432%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CINJoe Burrow · last 3 games: 55% completions, 150 yds/game, 4 TD, 0 INTstarted
BUFJosh Allen · last 3 games: 67% completions, 231 yds/game, 4 TD, 5 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·BUF
Nov 27, 2025 at BAL
last game
Nov 30, 2025 at PIT
9 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
CIN·BUF
−0.37
rating (0 = average)
+0.78
23.3
points / game
28.1
31.2
points allowed / game
21.6
4−8
season record
8−4
2−4
home record
5−1
2−4
away record
3−3
W1
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
6−4
313
total yards / game
381
5.1
yards / play
6.0
225
passing yards / game
225
88
rushing yards / game
156
19.4
first downs / game
22.0
1.5
turnovers / game
1.4

Rating Trend

CIN · BUF · 39 days
Cincinnati BengalsBuffalo Bills
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · BUF 0−2
Nov 5, 2023at CINCIN 24 − 18
Jan 22, 2023at BUFCIN 27 − 10post

CIN · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Nov 27, 2025at BAL32 − 14W
Nov 23, 2025vs NE20 − 26L
Nov 16, 2025at PIT12 − 34L
Nov 2, 2025vs CHI42 − 47L
Oct 26, 2025vs NYJ38 − 39L
Oct 16, 2025vs PIT33 − 31W
Oct 12, 2025at GB18 − 27L
Oct 5, 2025vs DET24 − 37L
Sep 29, 2025at DEN3 − 28L
Sep 21, 2025at MIN10 − 48L

BUF · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Nov 30, 2025at PIT26 − 7W
Nov 20, 2025at HOU19 − 23L
Nov 16, 2025vs TB44 − 32W
Nov 9, 2025at MIA13 − 30L
Nov 2, 2025vs KC28 − 21W
Oct 26, 2025at CAR40 − 9W
Oct 13, 2025at ATL14 − 24L
Oct 5, 2025vs NE20 − 23L
Sep 28, 2025vs NO31 − 19W
Sep 18, 2025vs MIA31 − 21W