bayesRatings

Patriots at Bengals

NFL · Sunday, Nov 23 · 12:00 PM CT · Paycor Stadium · Final NE 26 – CIN 20
← NFL / Nov 23, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NE0173626
CIN3100720
Team box
NE·CIN
392
total yards
307
285
passing yards
187
107
rushing yards
120
21
first downs
20
5-13
third downs
3-13
1
turnovers
1
33:14
time of possession
26:46
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Drake MayeNE22/3529411
Joe FlaccoCIN19/3718311
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
TreVeyon HendersonNE18660
Chase BrownCIN191070
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Hunter HenryNE71151
Andrei IosivasCIN4610

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +10
NE +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CIN 10 · NE 10lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NE 59%, CIN 41% · Updated Nov 23, 2025

Expected margin
NE by 5.3
Expected score
NE 30.3 – 25.0 CIN
Expected total
55.3
PatriotsThe matchupBengals
−141Our fair odds+141
30.3Expected points25.0
+0.16Power rating−0.50
26.5Points / game22.8
18.7Allowed / game33.4
357Total yards / game307
5.9Yards / play5.1
244Passing yards / game226
9−2Season record3−7
9−1Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NE chance · CIN chance
Our model fair58.6%41.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NENew England Patriots−14159%————
CINCincinnati Bengals+14141%————
SpreadNE by 5.3
NENew England Patriots−5.3our margin————
CINCincinnati Bengals+5.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 55.3
Over55.3our total————
Under55.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New England Patriots by 5.3 expected
New England Patriots by 40 points: <1%New England Patriots by 39 points: <1%New England Patriots by 38 points: <1%New England Patriots by 37 points: <1%New England Patriots by 36 points: <1%New England Patriots by 35 points: <1%New England Patriots by 34 points: 1%New England Patriots by 33 points: <1%New England Patriots by 32 points: <1%New England Patriots by 31 points: 1%New England Patriots by 30 points: <1%New England Patriots by 29 points: <1%New England Patriots by 28 points: 2%New England Patriots by 27 points: <1%New England Patriots by 26 points: 1%New England Patriots by 25 points: 1%New England Patriots by 24 points: 2%New England Patriots by 23 points: 2%New England Patriots by 22 points: 1%New England Patriots by 21 points: 2%New England Patriots by 20 points: 1%New England Patriots by 19 points: 1%New England Patriots by 18 points: 1%New England Patriots by 17 points: 3%New England Patriots by 16 points: 2%New England Patriots by 15 points: 1%New England Patriots by 14 points: 4%New England Patriots by 13 points: 1%New England Patriots by 12 points: 1%New England Patriots by 11 points: 1%New England Patriots by 10 points: 3%New England Patriots by 9 points: 1%New England Patriots by 8 points: 2%New England Patriots by 7 points: 5%New England Patriots by 6 points: 4%New England Patriots by 5 points: 3%New England Patriots by 4 points: 3%New England Patriots by 3 points: 9%New England Patriots by 2 points: 2%New England Patriots by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 1 point: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 2 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 3 points: 6%Cincinnati Bengals by 4 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 5 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 6 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 7 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 8 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 9 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 10 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 11 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 12 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 13 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 14 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 15 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 16 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 17 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 18 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 19 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 20 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 21 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 22 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 23 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 24 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 25 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 26 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 27 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 28 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 29 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 30 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 31 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 32 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 33 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 34 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 35 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 36 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 37 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 38 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 39 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 40 points: <1%
← NE wins byCIN wins by →
New England Patriots wins by 3 or more61%
New England Patriots wins by 7 or more43%
New England Patriots wins by 10 or more34%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

55.3 expected
19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: <1%27 points: <1%28 points: <1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 2%38 points: 1%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 2%44 points: 2%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 3%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 2%68 points: 2%69 points: 2%70 points: 1%71 points: 2%72 points: 1%73 points: 2%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: 1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 48.564%
Total over 55.548%
Total over 62.532%
Total from 49 to 6232%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NEDrake Maye · last 3 games: 64% completions, 270 yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INTstarted
CINJoe Flacco · last 3 games: 62% completions, 297 yds/game, 7 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NE·CIN
Nov 13, 2025 vs NYJ
last game
Nov 16, 2025 at PIT
9 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 10+ games
NE·CIN
+0.16
rating (0 = average)
−0.50
26.5
points / game
22.8
18.7
points allowed / game
33.4
9−2
season record
3−7
4−2
home record
2−3
5−0
away record
1−4
W8
streak
L3
9−1
last 10
3−7
357
total yards / game
307
5.9
yards / play
5.1
244
passing yards / game
226
113
rushing yards / game
81
20.5
first downs / game
19.1
1.1
turnovers / game
1.6

Rating Trend

NE · CIN · 32 days
New England PatriotsCincinnati Bengals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · CIN 1−1
Sep 8, 2024at CINNE 16 − 10
Dec 24, 2022at NECIN 22 − 18

NE · Last 10

9−1 · streak W8
Nov 13, 2025vs NYJ27 − 14W
Nov 9, 2025at TB28 − 23W
Nov 2, 2025vs ATL24 − 23W
Oct 26, 2025vs CLE32 − 13W
Oct 19, 2025at TEN31 − 13W
Oct 12, 2025at NO25 − 19W
Oct 5, 2025at BUF23 − 20W
Sep 28, 2025vs CAR42 − 13W
Sep 21, 2025vs PIT14 − 21L
Sep 14, 2025at MIA33 − 27W

CIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Nov 16, 2025at PIT12 − 34L
Nov 2, 2025vs CHI42 − 47L
Oct 26, 2025vs NYJ38 − 39L
Oct 16, 2025vs PIT33 − 31W
Oct 12, 2025at GB18 − 27L
Oct 5, 2025vs DET24 − 37L
Sep 29, 2025at DEN3 − 28L
Sep 21, 2025at MIN10 − 48L
Sep 14, 2025vs JAX31 − 27W
Sep 7, 2025at CLE17 − 16W