bayesRatings

Jets at Patriots

NFL · Thursday, Nov 13 · 7:15 PM CT · Gillette Stadium · Final NYJ 14 – NE 27
← NFL / Nov 13, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NYJ707014
NE0147627
Team box
NYJ·NE
245
total yards
336
105
passing yards
271
140
rushing yards
65
15
first downs
23
8-14
third downs
6-12
1
turnovers
0
28:04
time of possession
31:56
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Justin FieldsNYJ15/2611610
Drake MayeNE25/3428110
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Justin FieldsNYJ11671
TreVeyon HendersonNE19622
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
John Metchie IIINYJ3451
Stefon DiggsNE91050

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NE +14
NYJ +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NE 14 · NYJ 7lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYJ 28%, NE 72% · Updated Nov 13, 2025

Expected margin
NE by 9.2
Expected score
NE 26.4 – 17.2 NYJ
Expected total
43.6
JetsThe matchupPatriots
+258Our fair odds−258
17.2Expected points26.4
−0.64Power rating+0.09
21.7Points / game26.5
26.8Allowed / game19.2
286Total yards / game359
4.7Yards / play5.9
144Passing yards / game241
2−7Season record8−2
3−7Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYJ chance · NE chance
Our model fair27.9%72.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYJNew York Jets+25828%————
NENew England Patriots−25872%————
SpreadNE by 9.2
NYJNew York Jets+9.2our margin————
NENew England Patriots−9.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 43.6
Over43.6our total————
Under43.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New England Patriots by 9.2 expected
New York Jets by 48 points: <1%New York Jets by 47 points: <1%New York Jets by 46 points: <1%New York Jets by 45 points: <1%New York Jets by 44 points: <1%New York Jets by 43 points: <1%New York Jets by 42 points: <1%New York Jets by 41 points: <1%New York Jets by 40 points: <1%New York Jets by 39 points: <1%New York Jets by 38 points: <1%New York Jets by 37 points: <1%New York Jets by 36 points: <1%New York Jets by 35 points: <1%New York Jets by 34 points: <1%New York Jets by 33 points: <1%New York Jets by 32 points: <1%New York Jets by 31 points: <1%New York Jets by 30 points: <1%New York Jets by 29 points: <1%New York Jets by 28 points: <1%New York Jets by 27 points: <1%New York Jets by 26 points: <1%New York Jets by 25 points: <1%New York Jets by 24 points: <1%New York Jets by 23 points: <1%New York Jets by 22 points: <1%New York Jets by 21 points: <1%New York Jets by 20 points: <1%New York Jets by 19 points: <1%New York Jets by 18 points: <1%New York Jets by 17 points: 1%New York Jets by 16 points: 1%New York Jets by 15 points: <1%New York Jets by 14 points: 1%New York Jets by 13 points: <1%New York Jets by 12 points: <1%New York Jets by 11 points: <1%New York Jets by 10 points: 1%New York Jets by 9 points: <1%New York Jets by 8 points: 1%New York Jets by 7 points: 3%New York Jets by 6 points: 2%New York Jets by 5 points: 2%New York Jets by 4 points: 2%New York Jets by 3 points: 6%New York Jets by 2 points: 1%New York Jets by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%New England Patriots by 1 point: 2%New England Patriots by 2 points: 3%New England Patriots by 3 points: 7%New England Patriots by 4 points: 2%New England Patriots by 5 points: 2%New England Patriots by 6 points: 4%New England Patriots by 7 points: 4%New England Patriots by 8 points: 3%New England Patriots by 9 points: 1%New England Patriots by 10 points: 2%New England Patriots by 11 points: 1%New England Patriots by 12 points: 2%New England Patriots by 13 points: 2%New England Patriots by 14 points: 2%New England Patriots by 15 points: 1%New England Patriots by 16 points: 1%New England Patriots by 17 points: 4%New England Patriots by 18 points: 2%New England Patriots by 19 points: 1%New England Patriots by 20 points: 2%New England Patriots by 21 points: 2%New England Patriots by 22 points: 1%New England Patriots by 23 points: 2%New England Patriots by 24 points: 2%New England Patriots by 25 points: 1%New England Patriots by 26 points: 1%New England Patriots by 27 points: 1%New England Patriots by 28 points: 1%New England Patriots by 29 points: 1%New England Patriots by 30 points: 1%New England Patriots by 31 points: 2%New England Patriots by 32 points: 1%New England Patriots by 33 points: <1%New England Patriots by 34 points: 1%New England Patriots by 35 points: 1%New England Patriots by 36 points: 1%New England Patriots by 37 points: 1%New England Patriots by 38 points: 1%New England Patriots by 39 points: <1%New England Patriots by 40 points: <1%New England Patriots by 41 points: <1%New England Patriots by 42 points: <1%New England Patriots by 43 points: <1%New England Patriots by 44 points: <1%New England Patriots by 45 points: <1%New England Patriots by 46 points: <1%New England Patriots by 47 points: <1%New England Patriots by 48 points: <1%
← NYJ wins byNE wins by →
New England Patriots wins by 3 or more68%
New England Patriots wins by 7 or more53%
New England Patriots wins by 10 or more45%
Within 3 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

43.6 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 36.569%
Total over 43.548%
Total over 50.529%
Total from 37 to 5039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NYJJustin Fields · last 3 games: 60% completions, 115 yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INTstarted
NEDrake Maye · last 3 games: 63% completions, 270 yds/game, 7 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYJ·NE
Nov 9, 2025 vs CLE
last game
Nov 9, 2025 at TB
3 days
days of rest
3 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
NYJ·NE
−0.64
rating (0 = average)
+0.09
21.7
points / game
26.5
26.8
points allowed / game
19.2
2−7
season record
8−2
1−5
home record
3−2
1−2
away record
5−0
W2
streak
W7
3−7
last 10
8−2
286
total yards / game
359
4.7
yards / play
5.9
144
passing yards / game
241
142
rushing yards / game
118
17.8
first downs / game
20.2
1.2
turnovers / game
1.2

Rating Trend

NYJ · NE · 28 days
New York JetsNew England Patriots
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · NE 6−2
Oct 27, 2024at NENE 25 − 22
Sep 19, 2024at NYJNYJ 24 − 3
Jan 7, 2024at NENYJ 17 − 3
Sep 24, 2023at NYJNE 15 − 10
Nov 20, 2022at NENE 10 − 3
Oct 30, 2022at NYJNE 22 − 17
Oct 24, 2021at NENE 54 − 13
Sep 19, 2021at NYJNE 25 − 6

NYJ · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Nov 9, 2025vs CLE27 − 20W
Oct 26, 2025at CIN39 − 38W
Oct 19, 2025vs CAR6 − 13L
Oct 12, 2025vs DEN11 − 13L
Oct 5, 2025vs DAL22 − 37L
Sep 29, 2025at MIA21 − 27L
Sep 21, 2025at TB27 − 29L
Sep 14, 2025vs BUF10 − 30L
Sep 7, 2025vs PIT32 − 34L
Jan 5, 2025vs MIA32 − 20W

NE · Last 10

8−2 · streak W7
Nov 9, 2025at TB28 − 23W
Nov 2, 2025vs ATL24 − 23W
Oct 26, 2025vs CLE32 − 13W
Oct 19, 2025at TEN31 − 13W
Oct 12, 2025at NO25 − 19W
Oct 5, 2025at BUF23 − 20W
Sep 28, 2025vs CAR42 − 13W
Sep 21, 2025vs PIT14 − 21L
Sep 14, 2025at MIA33 − 27W
Sep 7, 2025vs LV13 − 20L