bayesRatings

Browns at Bears

NFL · Sunday, Dec 14 · 12:00 PM CT · Soldier Field · Final CLE 3 – CHI 31
← NFL / Dec 14, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CLE00303
CHI14014331
Team box
CLE·CHI
192
total yards
361
142
passing yards
219
50
rushing yards
142
9
first downs
21
4-14
third downs
5-13
3
turnovers
0
27:08
time of possession
32:52
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Shedeur SandersCLE18/3517703
Caleb WilliamsCHI17/2824220
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Shedeur SandersCLE2240
D'Andre SwiftCHI18982
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Isaiah BondCLE2890
Luther Burden IIICHI6840

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +28
CLE +28
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHI 28 · CLE 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 21%, CHI 79% · Updated Dec 14, 2025

Expected margin
CHI by 10.0
Expected score
CHI 26.9 – 16.9 CLE
Expected total
43.8
BrownsThe matchupBears
+370Our fair odds−370
16.9Expected points26.9
−1.00Power rating+0.14
17.2Points / game25.7
23.2Allowed / game25.8
270Total yards / game370
4.4Yards / play5.6
174Passing yards / game217
3−10Season record9−4
2−8Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · CHI chance
Our model fair21.3%78.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Browns+37021%————
CHIChicago Bears−37079%————
SpreadCHI by 10.0
CLECleveland Browns+10our margin————
CHIChicago Bears−10our margin————
Totalwe expect 43.8
Over43.8our total————
Under43.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Bears by 10.0 expected
Cleveland Browns by 48 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 47 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 46 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 45 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 28 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 27 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 26 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 25 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 24 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 23 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 22 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 21 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 20 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 19 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 18 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 17 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 16 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 15 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 14 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 13 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 12 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 11 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 10 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 9 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 8 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 7 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 6 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 5 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 4 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 3 points: 5%Cleveland Browns by 2 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Chicago Bears by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bears by 2 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 3 points: 6%Chicago Bears by 4 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 5 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 6 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 7 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 8 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 9 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 10 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 11 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 12 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 13 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 14 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 15 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 17 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 18 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 19 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 20 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 21 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 23 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 24 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 25 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 26 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 27 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 28 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 29 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 30 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 31 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 32 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 34 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 35 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 36 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 37 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 38 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 42 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 43 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 44 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 45 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 46 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 47 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 48 points: <1%
← CLE wins byCHI wins by →
Chicago Bears wins by 3 or more70%
Chicago Bears wins by 7 or more55%
Chicago Bears wins by 10 or more47%
Within 3 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

43.8 expected
10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 36.569%
Total over 43.549%
Total over 50.530%
Total from 37 to 5039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CLEShedeur Sanders · last 3 games: 57% completions, 241 yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INTstarted
CHICaleb Williams · last 3 games: 52% completions, 193 yds/game, 6 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·CHI
Dec 7, 2025 vs TEN
last game
Dec 7, 2025 at GB
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
CLE·CHI
−1.00
rating (0 = average)
+0.14
17.2
points / game
25.7
23.2
points allowed / game
25.8
3−10
season record
9−4
2−5
home record
4−1
1−5
away record
5−3
L2
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
8−2
270
total yards / game
370
4.4
yards / play
5.6
174
passing yards / game
217
96
rushing yards / game
153
16.5
first downs / game
21.2
1.3
turnovers / game
0.8

Rating Trend

CLE · CHI · 42 days
Cleveland BrownsChicago Bears
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · CHI 0−2
Dec 17, 2023at CLECLE 20 − 17
Sep 26, 2021at CLECLE 26 − 6

CLE · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Dec 7, 2025vs TEN29 − 31L
Nov 30, 2025vs SF8 − 26L
Nov 23, 2025at LV24 − 10W
Nov 16, 2025vs BAL16 − 23L
Nov 9, 2025at NYJ20 − 27L
Oct 26, 2025at NE13 − 32L
Oct 19, 2025vs MIA31 − 6W
Oct 12, 2025at PIT9 − 23L
Oct 5, 2025vs MIN17 − 21L
Sep 28, 2025at DET10 − 34L

CHI · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Dec 7, 2025at GB21 − 28L
Nov 28, 2025at PHI24 − 15W
Nov 23, 2025vs PIT31 − 28W
Nov 16, 2025at MIN19 − 17W
Nov 9, 2025vs NYG24 − 20W
Nov 2, 2025at CIN47 − 42W
Oct 26, 2025at BAL16 − 30L
Oct 19, 2025vs NO26 − 14W
Oct 13, 2025at WSH25 − 24W
Sep 28, 2025at LV25 − 24W