bayesRatings

Bears at Eagles

NFL · Friday, Nov 28 · 2:00 PM CT · Lincoln Financial Field · Final CHI 24 – PHI 15
← NFL / Nov 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHI7301424
PHI036615
Team box
CHI·PHI
425
total yards
317
144
passing yards
230
281
rushing yards
87
28
first downs
14
10-17
third downs
4-12
1
turnovers
2
39:18
time of possession
20:42
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Caleb WilliamsCHI17/3615411
Jalen HurtsPHI19/3423021
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Kyle MonangaiCHI221301
Saquon BarkleyPHI13560
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Cole KmetCHI3361
A.J. BrownPHI101322

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +15
CHI +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHI 0 · CHI 15lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 25%, PHI 75% · Updated Nov 28, 2025

Expected margin
PHI by 8.8
Expected score
PHI 27.7 – 18.9 CHI
Expected total
46.6
BearsThe matchupEagles
+295Our fair odds−295
18.9Expected points27.7
+0.06Power rating+0.89
26.3Points / game23.2
26.5Allowed / game20.5
370Total yards / game304
5.7Yards / play5.2
227Passing yards / game193
8−3Season record8−3
8−2Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · PHI chance
Our model fair25.3%74.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Bears+29525%————
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles−29575%————
SpreadPHI by 8.8
CHIChicago Bears+8.8our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles−8.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 46.6
Over46.6our total————
Under46.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Eagles by 8.8 expected
Chicago Bears by 47 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 46 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 45 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 44 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 43 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 42 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 28 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 25 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 24 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 23 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 22 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 21 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 20 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 19 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 18 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 17 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 15 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 14 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 13 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 12 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 11 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 10 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 9 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 8 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 7 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 6 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 5 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 4 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 3 points: 6%Chicago Bears by 2 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 1 point: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 2 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 3 points: 7%Philadelphia Eagles by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 6 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 7 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 8 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 9 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 10 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 11 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 12 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 13 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 14 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 17 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 18 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 20 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 21 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 23 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 24 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 25 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 26 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 27 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 28 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 29 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 30 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 31 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 32 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 34 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 35 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 36 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 37 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 38 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 44 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 45 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 46 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 47 points: <1%
← CHI wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 3 or more67%
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 7 or more52%
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 10 or more44%
Within 3 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

46.6 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 39.568%
Total over 46.548%
Total over 53.530%
Total from 40 to 5338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CHICaleb Williams · last 3 games: 53% completions, 217 yds/game, 4 TD, 0 INTstarted
PHIJalen Hurts · last 3 games: 60% completions, 202 yds/game, 2 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·PHI
Nov 23, 2025 vs PIT
last game
Nov 23, 2025 at DAL
4 days
days of rest
4 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
CHI·PHI
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.89
26.3
points / game
23.2
26.5
points allowed / game
20.5
8−3
season record
8−3
4−1
home record
4−1
4−2
away record
4−2
W4
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
7−3
370
total yards / game
304
5.7
yards / play
5.2
227
passing yards / game
193
143
rushing yards / game
110
20.5
first downs / game
17.4
0.7
turnovers / game
0.5

Rating Trend

CHI · PHI · 35 days
Chicago BearsPhiladelphia Eagles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · PHI 1−0
Dec 18, 2022at CHIPHI 25 − 20

CHI · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
Nov 23, 2025vs PIT31 − 28W
Nov 16, 2025at MIN19 − 17W
Nov 9, 2025vs NYG24 − 20W
Nov 2, 2025at CIN47 − 42W
Oct 26, 2025at BAL16 − 30L
Oct 19, 2025vs NO26 − 14W
Oct 13, 2025at WSH25 − 24W
Sep 28, 2025at LV25 − 24W
Sep 21, 2025vs DAL31 − 14W
Sep 14, 2025at DET21 − 52L

PHI · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Nov 23, 2025at DAL21 − 24L
Nov 16, 2025vs DET16 − 9W
Nov 10, 2025at GB10 − 7W
Oct 26, 2025vs NYG38 − 20W
Oct 19, 2025at MIN28 − 22W
Oct 9, 2025at NYG17 − 34L
Oct 5, 2025vs DEN17 − 21L
Sep 28, 2025at TB31 − 25W
Sep 21, 2025vs LAR33 − 26W
Sep 14, 2025at KC20 − 17W