bayesRatings

Browns at Raiders

NFL · Sunday, Nov 23 · 3:05 PM CT · Allegiant Stadium · Final CLE 24 – LV 10
← NFL / Nov 23, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CLE14001024
LV030710
Team box
CLE·LV
270
total yards
268
206
passing yards
208
64
rushing yards
60
11
first downs
19
3-12
third downs
4-17
2
turnovers
1
23:34
time of possession
36:26
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Shedeur SandersCLE11/2020911
Geno SmithLV30/4428510
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Quinshon JudkinsCLE16472
Ashton JeantyLV17500
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Dylan SampsonCLE2591
Tyler LockettLV4620

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LV +21
CLE +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LV 0 · CLE 21lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 45%, LV 55% · Updated Nov 23, 2025

Expected margin
LV by 3.5
Expected score
LV 19.6 – 16.1 CLE
Expected total
35.6
BrownsThe matchupRaiders
+120Our fair odds−120
16.1Expected points19.6
−0.89Power rating−0.99
16.2Points / game15.5
23.4Allowed / game25.3
257Total yards / game269
4.0Yards / play4.7
159Passing yards / game188
2−8Season record2−8
2−8Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · LV chance
Our model fair45.5%54.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Browns+12045%————
LVLas Vegas Raiders−12055%————
SpreadLV by 3.5
CLECleveland Browns+3.5our margin————
LVLas Vegas Raiders−3.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 35.6
Over35.6our total————
Under35.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Las Vegas Raiders by 3.5 expected
Cleveland Browns by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 28 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 27 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 26 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 25 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 22 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 19 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 18 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 17 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 16 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 15 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 14 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 13 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 12 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 11 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 10 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 9 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 8 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 7 points: 4%Cleveland Browns by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Browns by 5 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Browns by 3 points: 8%Cleveland Browns by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 1 point: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 2 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 3 points: 7%Las Vegas Raiders by 4 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 5 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 6 points: 4%Las Vegas Raiders by 7 points: 4%Las Vegas Raiders by 8 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 9 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 10 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 11 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 12 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 13 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 14 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 15 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 16 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 17 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 18 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 19 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 20 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 21 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 22 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 23 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 24 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 25 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 26 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 27 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 28 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 29 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 30 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 31 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 32 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 33 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 34 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 35 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 36 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 37 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 38 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 39 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 40 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 41 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 42 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 43 points: <1%
← CLE wins byLV wins by →
Las Vegas Raiders wins by 3 or more53%
Las Vegas Raiders wins by 7 or more37%
Las Vegas Raiders wins by 10 or more29%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

35.6 expected
3 points: <1%4 points: <1%5 points: <1%6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: 1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: 1%14 points: 1%15 points: 1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 2%20 points: 1%21 points: 2%22 points: 2%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 3%27 points: 3%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 3%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 1%51 points: 2%52 points: 1%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: <1%62 points: <1%63 points: <1%64 points: <1%65 points: <1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 28.570%
Total over 35.549%
Total over 42.528%
Total from 29 to 4242%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CLEShedeur Sanders · last 1 game: 25% completions, 47 yds/game, 0 TD, 1 INTstarted
LVGeno Smith · last 3 games: 67% completions, 222 yds/game, 5 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·LV
Nov 16, 2025 vs BAL
last game
Nov 17, 2025 vs DAL
6 days
days of rest
5 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 10+ games
CLE·LV
−0.89
rating (0 = average)
−0.99
16.2
points / game
15.5
23.4
points allowed / game
25.3
2−8
season record
2−8
2−3
home record
1−4
0−5
away record
1−4
L3
streak
L4
2−8
last 10
2−8
257
total yards / game
269
4.0
yards / play
4.7
159
passing yards / game
188
98
rushing yards / game
81
16.7
first downs / game
16.4
1.1
turnovers / game
1.5

Rating Trend

CLE · LV · 32 days
Cleveland BrownsLas Vegas Raiders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · LV 2−0
Sep 29, 2024at LVLV 20 − 16
Dec 20, 2021at CLELV 16 − 14

CLE · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Nov 16, 2025vs BAL16 − 23L
Nov 9, 2025at NYJ20 − 27L
Oct 26, 2025at NE13 − 32L
Oct 19, 2025vs MIA31 − 6W
Oct 12, 2025at PIT9 − 23L
Oct 5, 2025vs MIN17 − 21L
Sep 28, 2025at DET10 − 34L
Sep 21, 2025vs GB13 − 10W
Sep 14, 2025at BAL17 − 41L
Sep 7, 2025vs CIN16 − 17L

LV · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Nov 17, 2025vs DAL16 − 33L
Nov 6, 2025at DEN7 − 10L
Nov 2, 2025vs JAX29 − 30L
Oct 19, 2025at KC0 − 31L
Oct 12, 2025vs TEN20 − 10W
Oct 5, 2025at IND6 − 40L
Sep 28, 2025vs CHI24 − 25L
Sep 21, 2025at WSH24 − 41L
Sep 15, 2025vs LAC9 − 20L
Sep 7, 2025at NE20 − 13W