bayesRatings

49ers at Browns

NFL · Sunday, Nov 30 · 12:00 PM CT · Huntington Bank Field · Final SF 26 – CLE 8
← NFL / Nov 30, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SF737926
CLE08008
Team box
SF·CLE
252
total yards
253
161
passing yards
115
91
rushing yards
138
19
first downs
15
11-17
third downs
3-11
0
turnovers
2
30:10
time of possession
29:50
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Brock PurdySF16/2916810
Shedeur SandersCLE16/2514910
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Christian McCaffreySF20531
Quinshon JudkinsCLE23910
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
George KittleSF4670
Harold Fannin Jr.CLE3431

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +18
SF +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CLE 1 · SF 18lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 65%, CLE 35% · Updated Nov 30, 2025

Expected margin
SF by 4.5
Expected score
SF 22.3 – 17.8 CLE
Expected total
40.1
49ersThe matchupBrowns
−189Our fair odds+189
22.3Expected points17.8
+0.25Power rating−0.75
23.4Points / game16.9
21.8Allowed / game22.2
349Total yards / game259
5.4Yards / play4.2
249Passing yards / game164
8−4Season record3−8
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · CLE chance
Our model fair65.4%34.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco 49ers−18965%————
CLECleveland Browns+18935%————
SpreadSF by 4.5
SFSan Francisco 49ers−4.5our margin————
CLECleveland Browns+4.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 40.1
Over40.1our total————
Under40.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Francisco 49ers by 4.5 expected
San Francisco 49ers by 40 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 39 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 38 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 37 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 36 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 35 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 34 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 33 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 32 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 31 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 30 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 29 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 28 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 27 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 26 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 25 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 24 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 23 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 22 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 21 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 20 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 19 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 18 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 17 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 16 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 15 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 14 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 13 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 12 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 11 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 10 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 9 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 8 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 7 points: 5%San Francisco 49ers by 6 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 5 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 4 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 3 points: 9%San Francisco 49ers by 2 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Cleveland Browns by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Browns by 2 points: 3%Cleveland Browns by 3 points: 6%Cleveland Browns by 4 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 5 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Browns by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Browns by 8 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 9 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 10 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 11 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 12 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 13 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 14 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 15 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 16 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 17 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 18 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 19 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 22 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 23 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 25 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 26 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 27 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 28 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 40 points: <1%
← SF wins byCLE wins by →
San Francisco 49ers wins by 3 or more59%
San Francisco 49ers wins by 7 or more40%
San Francisco 49ers wins by 10 or more32%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

40.1 expected
7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 1%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 33.568%
Total over 40.547%
Total over 47.528%
Total from 34 to 4740%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
SFBrock Purdy · last 3 games: 67% completions, 234 yds/game, 6 TD, 5 INTstarted
CLEShedeur Sanders · last 2 games: 42% completions, 128 yds/game, 1 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·CLE
Nov 24, 2025 vs CAR
last game
Nov 23, 2025 at LV
5 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
SF·CLE
+0.25
rating (0 = average)
−0.75
23.4
points / game
16.9
21.8
points allowed / game
22.2
8−4
season record
3−8
3−2
home record
2−3
5−2
away record
1−5
W2
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
3−7
349
total yards / game
259
5.4
yards / play
4.2
249
passing yards / game
164
99
rushing yards / game
95
21.9
first downs / game
16.2
1.5
turnovers / game
1.2

Rating Trend

SF · CLE · 36 days
San Francisco 49ersCleveland Browns
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · CLE 1−0
Oct 15, 2023at CLECLE 19 − 17

SF · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Nov 24, 2025vs CAR20 − 9W
Nov 16, 2025at ARI41 − 22W
Nov 9, 2025vs LAR26 − 42L
Nov 2, 2025at NYG34 − 24W
Oct 26, 2025at HOU15 − 26L
Oct 19, 2025vs ATL20 − 10W
Oct 12, 2025at TB19 − 30L
Oct 2, 2025at LAR26 − 23W
Sep 28, 2025vs JAX21 − 26L
Sep 21, 2025vs ARI16 − 15W

CLE · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Nov 23, 2025at LV24 − 10W
Nov 16, 2025vs BAL16 − 23L
Nov 9, 2025at NYJ20 − 27L
Oct 26, 2025at NE13 − 32L
Oct 19, 2025vs MIA31 − 6W
Oct 12, 2025at PIT9 − 23L
Oct 5, 2025vs MIN17 − 21L
Sep 28, 2025at DET10 − 34L
Sep 21, 2025vs GB13 − 10W
Sep 14, 2025at BAL17 − 41L