bayesRatings

Panthers at 49ers

NFL · Monday, Nov 24 · 7:15 PM CT · Levi's Stadium · Final CAR 9 – SF 20
← NFL / Nov 24, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CAR03609
SF737320
Team box
CAR·SF
230
total yards
340
161
passing yards
193
69
rushing yards
147
12
first downs
23
1-7
third downs
7-13
2
turnovers
3
22:18
time of possession
37:42
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Bryce YoungCAR18/2916912
Brock PurdySF23/3219313
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Rico DowdleCAR6380
Christian McCaffreySF24891
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Rico DowdleCAR4360
George KittleSF6780

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +14
CAR +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SF 14 · CAR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CAR 28%, SF 72% · Updated Nov 24, 2025

Expected margin
SF by 8.9
Expected score
SF 27.6 – 18.8 CAR
Expected total
46.4
PanthersThe matchup49ers
+258Our fair odds−258
18.8Expected points27.6
−0.51Power rating+0.19
18.8Points / game23.7
22.6Allowed / game22.9
314Total yards / game349
4.9Yards / play5.5
187Passing yards / game255
6−5Season record7−4
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CAR chance · SF chance
Our model fair27.9%72.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CARCarolina Panthers+25828%————
SFSan Francisco 49ers−25872%————
SpreadSF by 8.9
CARCarolina Panthers+8.9our margin————
SFSan Francisco 49ers−8.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 46.4
Over46.4our total————
Under46.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Francisco 49ers by 8.9 expected
Carolina Panthers by 47 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 46 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 45 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 44 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 43 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 42 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 41 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 40 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 39 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 38 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 37 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 36 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 35 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 34 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 33 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 32 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 31 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 30 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 29 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 28 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 27 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 26 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 25 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 24 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 23 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 22 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 21 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 20 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 19 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 18 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 17 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 16 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 15 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 14 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 13 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 12 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 11 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 10 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 9 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 8 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 7 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 6 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 5 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 4 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 3 points: 6%Carolina Panthers by 2 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 1 point: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 2 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 3 points: 7%San Francisco 49ers by 4 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 5 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 6 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 7 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 8 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 9 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 10 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 11 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 12 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 13 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 14 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 15 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 16 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 17 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 18 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 19 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 20 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 21 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 22 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 23 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 24 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 25 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 26 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 27 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 28 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 29 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 30 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 31 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 32 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 33 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 34 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 35 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 36 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 37 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 38 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 39 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 40 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 41 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 42 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 43 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 44 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 45 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 46 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 47 points: <1%
← CAR wins bySF wins by →
San Francisco 49ers wins by 3 or more67%
San Francisco 49ers wins by 7 or more52%
San Francisco 49ers wins by 10 or more44%
Within 3 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

46.4 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 39.567%
Total over 46.547%
Total over 53.529%
Total from 40 to 5338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CARBryce Young · last 3 games: 66% completions, 225 yds/game, 3 TD, 2 INTstarted
SFBrock Purdy · last 3 games: 68% completions, 262 yds/game, 7 TD, 4 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CAR·SF
Nov 16, 2025 at ATL
last game
Nov 16, 2025 at ARI
7 days
days of rest
7 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
CAR·SF
−0.51
rating (0 = average)
+0.19
18.8
points / game
23.7
22.6
points allowed / game
22.9
6−5
season record
7−4
3−2
home record
2−2
3−3
away record
5−2
W1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
6−4
314
total yards / game
349
4.9
yards / play
5.5
187
passing yards / game
255
127
rushing yards / game
95
20.0
first downs / game
21.8
1.4
turnovers / game
1.4

Rating Trend

CAR · SF · 33 days
Carolina PanthersSan Francisco 49ers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · SF 1−0
Oct 9, 2022at CARSF 37 − 15

CAR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Nov 16, 2025at ATL30 − 27W
Nov 9, 2025vs NO7 − 17L
Nov 2, 2025at GB16 − 13W
Oct 26, 2025vs BUF9 − 40L
Oct 19, 2025at NYJ13 − 6W
Oct 12, 2025vs DAL30 − 27W
Oct 5, 2025vs MIA27 − 24W
Sep 28, 2025at NE13 − 42L
Sep 21, 2025vs ATL30 − 0W
Sep 14, 2025at ARI22 − 27L

SF · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Nov 16, 2025at ARI41 − 22W
Nov 9, 2025vs LAR26 − 42L
Nov 2, 2025at NYG34 − 24W
Oct 26, 2025at HOU15 − 26L
Oct 19, 2025vs ATL20 − 10W
Oct 12, 2025at TB19 − 30L
Oct 2, 2025at LAR26 − 23W
Sep 28, 2025vs JAX21 − 26L
Sep 21, 2025vs ARI16 − 15W
Sep 14, 2025at NO26 − 21W