bayesRatings

Bears at Packers

NFL · Sunday, Dec 7 · 3:25 PM CT · Lambeau Field · Final CHI 21 – GB 28
← NFL / Dec 7, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHI0311721
GB0147728
Team box
CHI·GB
315
total yards
337
177
passing yards
220
138
rushing yards
117
21
first downs
17
8-16
third downs
8-12
1
turnovers
1
33:29
time of possession
26:31
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Caleb WilliamsCHI19/3518621
Jordan LoveGB17/2523431
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
D'Andre SwiftCHI13630
Josh JacobsGB20861
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Luther Burden IIICHI4670
Christian WatsonGB4892

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GB +11
CHI +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GB 11 · CHI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 32%, GB 68% · Updated Dec 7, 2025

Expected margin
GB by 7.3
Expected score
GB 26.1 – 18.9 CHI
Expected total
45.0
BearsThe matchupPackers
+214Our fair odds−214
18.9Expected points26.1
+0.18Power rating+0.69
26.1Points / game24.5
25.6Allowed / game18.8
375Total yards / game341
5.7Yards / play5.6
220Passing yards / game223
9−3Season record8−3−1
9−1Last 106−3−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · GB chance
Our model fair31.8%68.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Bears+21432%————
GBGreen Bay Packers−21468%————
SpreadGB by 7.3
CHIChicago Bears+7.3our margin————
GBGreen Bay Packers−7.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 45.0
Over45.0our total————
Under45.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Green Bay Packers by 7.3 expected
Chicago Bears by 46 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 45 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 44 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 43 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 42 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 28 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 25 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 24 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 23 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 22 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 20 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 19 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 18 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 17 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 15 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 14 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 13 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 12 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 11 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 10 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 9 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 8 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 7 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 6 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 5 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 4 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 3 points: 6%Chicago Bears by 2 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Green Bay Packers by 1 point: 2%Green Bay Packers by 2 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 3 points: 7%Green Bay Packers by 4 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 5 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 6 points: 4%Green Bay Packers by 7 points: 4%Green Bay Packers by 8 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 9 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 10 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 11 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 12 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 13 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 14 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 15 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 16 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 17 points: 4%Green Bay Packers by 18 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 19 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 20 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 21 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 22 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 23 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 24 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 25 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 26 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 27 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 28 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 29 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 30 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 31 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 32 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 33 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 34 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 35 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 36 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 37 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 38 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 39 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 40 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 41 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 42 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 43 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 44 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 45 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 46 points: <1%
← CHI wins byGB wins by →
Green Bay Packers wins by 3 or more63%
Green Bay Packers wins by 7 or more48%
Green Bay Packers wins by 10 or more40%
Within 3 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

45.0 expected
11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 38.566%
Total over 45.546%
Total over 52.528%
Total from 39 to 5238%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CHICaleb Williams · last 3 games: 50% completions, 195 yds/game, 4 TD, 1 INTstarted
GBJordan Love · last 3 games: 60% completions, 182 yds/game, 6 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·GB
Nov 28, 2025 at PHI
last game
Nov 27, 2025 at DET
8 days
days of rest
9 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
CHI·GB
+0.18
rating (0 = average)
+0.69
26.1
points / game
24.5
25.6
points allowed / game
18.8
9−3
season record
8−3−1
4−1
home record
4−2
5−2
away record
4−1−1
W5
streak
W3
9−1
last 10
6−3−1
375
total yards / game
341
5.7
yards / play
5.6
220
passing yards / game
223
154
rushing yards / game
117
21.2
first downs / game
20.3
0.8
turnovers / game
0.6

Rating Trend

CHI · GB · 39 days
Chicago BearsGreen Bay Packers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · GB 7−1
Jan 5, 2025at GBCHI 24 − 22
Nov 17, 2024at CHIGB 20 − 19
Jan 7, 2024at GBGB 17 − 9
Sep 10, 2023at CHIGB 38 − 20
Dec 4, 2022at CHIGB 28 − 19
Sep 18, 2022at GBGB 27 − 10
Dec 12, 2021at GBGB 45 − 30
Oct 17, 2021at CHIGB 24 − 14

CHI · Last 10

9−1 · streak W5
Nov 28, 2025at PHI24 − 15W
Nov 23, 2025vs PIT31 − 28W
Nov 16, 2025at MIN19 − 17W
Nov 9, 2025vs NYG24 − 20W
Nov 2, 2025at CIN47 − 42W
Oct 26, 2025at BAL16 − 30L
Oct 19, 2025vs NO26 − 14W
Oct 13, 2025at WSH25 − 24W
Sep 28, 2025at LV25 − 24W
Sep 21, 2025vs DAL31 − 14W

GB · Last 10

6−3−1 · streak W3
Nov 27, 2025at DET31 − 24W
Nov 23, 2025vs MIN23 − 6W
Nov 16, 2025at NYG27 − 20W
Nov 10, 2025vs PHI7 − 10L
Nov 2, 2025vs CAR13 − 16L
Oct 26, 2025at PIT35 − 25W
Oct 19, 2025at ARI27 − 23W
Oct 12, 2025vs CIN27 − 18W
Sep 28, 2025at DAL40 − 40T
Sep 21, 2025at CLE10 − 13L