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Vikings at Packers

NFL · Sunday, Nov 23 · 12:00 PM CT · Lambeau Field · Final MIN 6 – GB 23
← NFL / Nov 23, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN33006
GB737623
Team box
MIN·GB
145
total yards
288
52
passing yards
142
93
rushing yards
146
10
first downs
22
2-9
third downs
7-14
3
turnovers
0
22:45
time of possession
37:15
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
J.J. McCarthyMIN12/198702
Jordan LoveGB14/2113900
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jordan MasonMIN8420
Emanuel WilsonGB281072
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Justin JeffersonMIN4480
Christian WatsonGB5490

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GB +17
MIN +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GB 17 · MIN 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 34%, GB 66% · Updated Nov 23, 2025

Expected margin
GB by 6.8
Expected score
GB 24.6 – 17.8 MIN
Expected total
42.4
VikingsThe matchupPackers
+196Our fair odds−196
17.8Expected points24.6
+0.08Power rating+0.49
21.8Points / game24.0
23.2Allowed / game19.6
296Total yards / game344
5.1Yards / play5.7
193Passing yards / game230
4−6Season record6−3−1
4−6Last 106−3−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · GB chance
Our model fair33.8%66.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Vikings+19634%————
GBGreen Bay Packers−19666%————
SpreadGB by 6.8
MINMinnesota Vikings+6.8our margin————
GBGreen Bay Packers−6.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 42.4
Over42.4our total————
Under42.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Green Bay Packers by 6.8 expected
Minnesota Vikings by 46 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 28 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 26 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 25 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 24 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 23 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 22 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 20 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 19 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 18 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 17 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 16 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 15 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 13 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 12 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 11 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 10 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 9 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 8 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 6 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 5 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 4 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 3 points: 7%Minnesota Vikings by 2 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Green Bay Packers by 1 point: 2%Green Bay Packers by 2 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 3 points: 7%Green Bay Packers by 4 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 5 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 6 points: 4%Green Bay Packers by 7 points: 4%Green Bay Packers by 8 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 9 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 10 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 11 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 12 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 13 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 14 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 15 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 16 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 17 points: 4%Green Bay Packers by 18 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 19 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 20 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 21 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 22 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 23 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 24 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 25 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 26 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 27 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 28 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 29 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 30 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 31 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 32 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 33 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 34 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 35 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 36 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 37 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 38 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 39 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 40 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 41 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 42 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 43 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 44 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 45 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 46 points: <1%
← MIN wins byGB wins by →
Green Bay Packers wins by 3 or more62%
Green Bay Packers wins by 7 or more47%
Green Bay Packers wins by 10 or more38%
Within 3 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

42.4 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 35.568%
Total over 42.548%
Total over 49.528%
Total from 36 to 4940%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
MINJ.J. McCarthy · last 3 games: 51% completions, 180 yds/game, 4 TD, 5 INTstarted
GBJordan Love · last 3 games: 61% completions, 208 yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·GB
Nov 16, 2025 vs CHI
last game
Nov 16, 2025 at NYG
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 10+ games
MIN·GB
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.49
21.8
points / game
24.0
23.2
points allowed / game
19.6
4−6
season record
6−3−1
1−4
home record
3−2
3−2
away record
3−1−1
L2
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
6−3−1
296
total yards / game
344
5.1
yards / play
5.7
193
passing yards / game
230
103
rushing yards / game
114
17.5
first downs / game
20.4
1.8
turnovers / game
0.7

Rating Trend

MIN · GB · 32 days
Minnesota VikingsGreen Bay Packers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · GB 3−5
Dec 29, 2024at MINMIN 27 − 25
Sep 29, 2024at GBMIN 31 − 29
Dec 31, 2023at MINGB 33 − 10
Oct 29, 2023at GBMIN 24 − 10
Jan 1, 2023at GBGB 41 − 17
Sep 11, 2022at MINMIN 23 − 7
Jan 2, 2022at GBGB 37 − 10
Nov 21, 2021at MINMIN 34 − 31

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Nov 16, 2025vs CHI17 − 19L
Nov 9, 2025vs BAL19 − 27L
Nov 2, 2025at DET27 − 24W
Oct 23, 2025at LAC10 − 37L
Oct 19, 2025vs PHI22 − 28L
Oct 5, 2025at CLE21 − 17W
Sep 28, 2025at PIT21 − 24L
Sep 21, 2025vs CIN48 − 10W
Sep 14, 2025vs ATL6 − 22L
Sep 8, 2025at CHI27 − 24W

GB · Last 10

6−3−1 · streak W1
Nov 16, 2025at NYG27 − 20W
Nov 10, 2025vs PHI7 − 10L
Nov 2, 2025vs CAR13 − 16L
Oct 26, 2025at PIT35 − 25W
Oct 19, 2025at ARI27 − 23W
Oct 12, 2025vs CIN27 − 18W
Sep 28, 2025at DAL40 − 40T
Sep 21, 2025at CLE10 − 13L
Sep 11, 2025vs WSH27 − 18W
Sep 7, 2025vs DET27 − 13W