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Packers at Lions

NFL · Thursday, Nov 27 · 12:00 PM CT · Ford Field · Final GB 31 – DET 24
← NFL / Nov 27, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GB31414031
DET0147324
Team box
GB·DET
359
total yards
352
234
passing yards
233
125
rushing yards
119
18
first downs
20
6-12
third downs
8-13
0
turnovers
0
28:54
time of possession
31:06
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jordan LoveGB18/3023440
Jared GoffDET20/2625620
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Josh JacobsGB17830
Jahmyr GibbsDET20680
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Dontayvion WicksGB6942
Jameson WilliamsDET71441

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +10
GB +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DET 0 · GB 10lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GB 35%, DET 65% · Updated Nov 27, 2025

Expected margin
DET by 5.1
Expected score
DET 27.9 – 22.8 GB
Expected total
50.7
PackersThe matchupLions
+188Our fair odds−188
22.8Expected points27.9
+0.59Power rating+0.94
23.9Points / game29.6
18.4Allowed / game22.1
339Total yards / game378
5.6Yards / play6.1
222Passing yards / game239
7−3−1Season record7−4
6−3−1Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GB chance · DET chance
Our model fair34.8%65.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GBGreen Bay Packers+18835%————
DETDetroit Lions−18865%————
SpreadDET by 5.1
GBGreen Bay Packers+5.1our margin————
DETDetroit Lions−5.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 50.7
Over50.7our total————
Under50.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Lions by 5.1 expected
Green Bay Packers by 44 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 43 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 42 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 41 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 40 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 39 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 38 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 37 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 36 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 35 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 34 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 33 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 32 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 31 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 30 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 29 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 28 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 27 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 26 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 25 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 24 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 23 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 22 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 21 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 20 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 19 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 18 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 17 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 16 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 15 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 14 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 13 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 12 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 11 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 10 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 9 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 8 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 7 points: 4%Green Bay Packers by 6 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 5 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 4 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 3 points: 7%Green Bay Packers by 2 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Detroit Lions by 1 point: 2%Detroit Lions by 2 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 3 points: 7%Detroit Lions by 4 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 5 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 6 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 7 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 8 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 9 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 10 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 11 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 12 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 13 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 14 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 15 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 16 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 17 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 18 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 19 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 20 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 21 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 22 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 23 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 24 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 25 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 26 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 27 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 28 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 29 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 30 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 31 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 32 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 33 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 34 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 35 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 36 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 37 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 38 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 39 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 40 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 41 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 42 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 43 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 44 points: <1%
← GB wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Lions wins by 3 or more57%
Detroit Lions wins by 7 or more42%
Detroit Lions wins by 10 or more33%
Within 3 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

50.7 expected
16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 43.567%
Total over 50.548%
Total over 57.531%
Total from 44 to 5735%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
GBJordan Love · last 3 games: 58% completions, 163 yds/game, 2 TD, 0 INTstarted
DETJared Goff · last 3 games: 60% completions, 285 yds/game, 6 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GB·DET
Nov 23, 2025 vs MIN
last game
Nov 23, 2025 vs NYG
3 days
days of rest
3 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
GB·DET
+0.59
rating (0 = average)
+0.94
23.9
points / game
29.6
18.4
points allowed / game
22.1
7−3−1
season record
7−4
4−2
home record
4−1
3−1−1
away record
3−3
W2
streak
W1
6−3−1
last 10
7−3
339
total yards / game
378
5.6
yards / play
6.1
222
passing yards / game
239
116
rushing yards / game
140
20.5
first downs / game
20.0
0.6
turnovers / game
0.7

Rating Trend

GB · DET · 34 days
Green Bay PackersDetroit Lions
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · DET 6−3
Sep 7, 2025at GBGB 27 − 13
Dec 5, 2024at DETDET 34 − 31
Nov 3, 2024at GBDET 24 − 14
Nov 23, 2023at DETGB 29 − 22
Sep 28, 2023at GBDET 34 − 20
Jan 8, 2023at GBDET 20 − 16
Nov 6, 2022at DETDET 15 − 9
Jan 9, 2022at DETDET 37 − 30
Sep 20, 2021at GBGB 35 − 17

GB · Last 10

6−3−1 · streak W2
Nov 23, 2025vs MIN23 − 6W
Nov 16, 2025at NYG27 − 20W
Nov 10, 2025vs PHI7 − 10L
Nov 2, 2025vs CAR13 − 16L
Oct 26, 2025at PIT35 − 25W
Oct 19, 2025at ARI27 − 23W
Oct 12, 2025vs CIN27 − 18W
Sep 28, 2025at DAL40 − 40T
Sep 21, 2025at CLE10 − 13L
Sep 11, 2025vs WSH27 − 18W

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Nov 23, 2025vs NYG34 − 27W
Nov 16, 2025at PHI9 − 16L
Nov 9, 2025at WSH44 − 22W
Nov 2, 2025vs MIN24 − 27L
Oct 20, 2025vs TB24 − 9W
Oct 12, 2025at KC17 − 30L
Oct 5, 2025at CIN37 − 24W
Sep 28, 2025vs CLE34 − 10W
Sep 22, 2025at BAL38 − 30W
Sep 14, 2025vs CHI52 − 21W