bayesRatings

Eagles at Chargers

NFL · Monday, Dec 8 · 7:15 PM CT · SoFi Stadium · Final PHI 19 – LAC 22
← NFL / Dec 8, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
PHI33310019
LAC7336322
Team box
PHI·LAC
365
total yards
275
231
passing yards
106
134
rushing yards
169
19
first downs
16
4-13
third downs
7-19
5
turnovers
3
29:26
time of possession
38:05
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jalen HurtsPHI21/4024004
Justin HerbertLAC12/2613911
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Saquon BarkleyPHI201221
Justin HerbertLAC10660
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
A.J. BrownPHI61000
Kimani VidalLAC1600

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAC +7
PHI +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: LAC 7 · PHI 3lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 56%, LAC 44% · Updated Dec 8, 2025

Expected margin
PHI by 0.3
Expected score
PHI 21.2 – 20.9 LAC
Expected total
42.1
EaglesThe matchupChargers
−126Our fair odds+126
21.2Expected points20.9
+0.70Power rating+0.16
22.5Points / game23.1
20.8Allowed / game21.0
305Total yards / game347
5.3Yards / play5.4
196Passing yards / game225
8−4Season record8−4
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · LAC chance
Our model fair55.8%44.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles−12656%————
LACLos Angeles Chargers+12644%————
SpreadPHI by 0.3
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles−0.3our margin————
LACLos Angeles Chargers+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 42.1
Over42.1our total————
Under42.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Eagles by 0.3 expected
Philadelphia Eagles by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 28 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 25 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 24 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 23 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 17 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 14 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 13 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 12 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 11 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 10 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 9 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 8 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 7 points: 5%Philadelphia Eagles by 6 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 5 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 4 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 3 points: 9%Philadelphia Eagles by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 2 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 3 points: 7%Los Angeles Chargers by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 6 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 7 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 14 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 19 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 31 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 38 points: <1%
← PHI wins byLAC wins by →
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 3 or more47%
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 7 or more29%
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 10 or more22%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

42.1 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: 1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 35.568%
Total over 42.547%
Total over 49.528%
Total from 36 to 4940%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
PHIJalen Hurts · last 3 games: 59% completions, 218 yds/game, 3 TD, 1 INTstarted
LACJustin Herbert · last 3 games: 63% completions, 151 yds/game, 3 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·LAC
Nov 28, 2025 vs CHI
last game
Nov 30, 2025 vs LV
9 days
days of rest
7 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
PHI·LAC
+0.70
rating (0 = average)
+0.16
22.5
points / game
23.1
20.8
points allowed / game
21.0
8−4
season record
8−4
4−2
home record
5−2
4−2
away record
3−2
L2
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
6−4
305
total yards / game
347
5.3
yards / play
5.4
196
passing yards / game
225
108
rushing yards / game
122
17.1
first downs / game
20.3
0.7
turnovers / game
1.2

Rating Trend

PHI · LAC · 40 days
Philadelphia EaglesLos Angeles Chargers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · LAC 1−0
Nov 7, 2021at PHILAC 27 − 24

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Nov 28, 2025vs CHI15 − 24L
Nov 23, 2025at DAL21 − 24L
Nov 16, 2025vs DET16 − 9W
Nov 10, 2025at GB10 − 7W
Oct 26, 2025vs NYG38 − 20W
Oct 19, 2025at MIN28 − 22W
Oct 9, 2025at NYG17 − 34L
Oct 5, 2025vs DEN17 − 21L
Sep 28, 2025at TB31 − 25W
Sep 21, 2025vs LAR33 − 26W

LAC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Nov 30, 2025vs LV31 − 14W
Nov 16, 2025at JAX6 − 35L
Nov 9, 2025vs PIT25 − 10W
Nov 2, 2025at TEN27 − 20W
Oct 23, 2025vs MIN37 − 10W
Oct 19, 2025vs IND24 − 38L
Oct 12, 2025at MIA29 − 27W
Oct 5, 2025vs WSH10 − 27L
Sep 28, 2025at NYG18 − 21L
Sep 21, 2025vs DEN23 − 20W