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Raiders at Chargers

NFL · Sunday, Nov 30 · 3:25 PM CT · SoFi Stadium · Final LV 14 – LAC 31
← NFL / Nov 30, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LV070714
LAC70141031
Team box
LV·LAC
156
total yards
341
125
passing yards
149
31
rushing yards
192
12
first downs
22
2-8
third downs
12-17
1
turnovers
1
24:12
time of possession
35:48
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Geno SmithLV18/2316521
Justin HerbertLAC15/2015121
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Ashton JeantyLV15310
Kimani VidalLAC251261
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Brock BowersLV4632
Ladd McConkeyLAC4391

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAC +17
LV +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAC 17 · LV 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LV 18%, LAC 82% · Updated Nov 30, 2025

Expected margin
LAC by 12.9
Expected score
LAC 25.6 – 12.8 LV
Expected total
38.4
RaidersThe matchupChargers
+458Our fair odds−458
12.8Expected points25.6
−1.16Power rating+0.14
15.0Points / game22.4
25.2Allowed / game21.6
269Total yards / game347
4.6Yards / play5.4
189Passing yards / game232
2−9Season record7−4
1−9Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LV chance · LAC chance
Our model fair17.9%82.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LVLas Vegas Raiders+45818%————
LACLos Angeles Chargers−45882%————
SpreadLAC by 12.9
LVLas Vegas Raiders+12.9our margin————
LACLos Angeles Chargers−12.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 38.4
Over38.4our total————
Under38.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Chargers by 12.9 expected
Las Vegas Raiders by 49 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 48 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 47 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 46 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 45 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 44 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 43 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 42 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 41 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 40 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 39 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 38 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 37 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 36 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 35 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 34 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 33 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 32 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 31 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 30 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 29 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 28 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 27 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 26 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 25 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 24 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 23 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 22 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 21 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 20 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 19 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 18 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 17 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 16 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 15 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 14 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 13 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 12 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 11 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 10 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 9 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 8 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 7 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 6 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 5 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 4 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 3 points: 4%Las Vegas Raiders by 2 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 1 point: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 2 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 3 points: 6%Los Angeles Chargers by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 6 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 7 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 14 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 15 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 17 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 18 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 20 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 21 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 22 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 23 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 24 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 25 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 26 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 28 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 29 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 30 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 31 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 32 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 34 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 35 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 36 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 37 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 38 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 40 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 41 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 42 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 46 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 47 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 48 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 49 points: <1%
← LV wins byLAC wins by →
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 3 or more77%
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 7 or more63%
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 10 or more54%
Within 3 points either way17%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

38.4 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 1%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: <1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 31.569%
Total over 38.548%
Total over 45.528%
Total from 32 to 4541%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
LVGeno Smith · last 3 games: 65% completions, 222 yds/game, 2 TD, 2 INTstarted
LACJustin Herbert · last 3 games: 61% completions, 184 yds/game, 3 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LV·LAC
Nov 23, 2025 vs CLE
last game
Nov 16, 2025 at JAX
6 days
days of rest
13 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
LV·LAC
−1.16
rating (0 = average)
+0.14
15.0
points / game
22.4
25.2
points allowed / game
21.6
2−9
season record
7−4
1−5
home record
4−2
1−4
away record
3−2
L5
streak
L1
1−9
last 10
6−4
269
total yards / game
347
4.6
yards / play
5.4
189
passing yards / game
232
79
rushing yards / game
116
16.6
first downs / game
20.2
1.5
turnovers / game
1.2

Rating Trend

LV · LAC · 36 days
Las Vegas RaidersLos Angeles Chargers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · LAC 6−3
Sep 15, 2025at LVLAC 20 − 9
Jan 5, 2025at LVLAC 34 − 20
Sep 8, 2024at LACLAC 22 − 10
Dec 14, 2023at LVLV 63 − 21
Oct 1, 2023at LACLAC 24 − 17
Dec 4, 2022at LVLV 27 − 20
Sep 11, 2022at LACLAC 24 − 19
Jan 9, 2022at LVLV 35 − 32
Oct 4, 2021at LACLAC 28 − 14

LV · Last 10

1−9 · streak L5
Nov 23, 2025vs CLE10 − 24L
Nov 17, 2025vs DAL16 − 33L
Nov 6, 2025at DEN7 − 10L
Nov 2, 2025vs JAX29 − 30L
Oct 19, 2025at KC0 − 31L
Oct 12, 2025vs TEN20 − 10W
Oct 5, 2025at IND6 − 40L
Sep 28, 2025vs CHI24 − 25L
Sep 21, 2025at WSH24 − 41L
Sep 15, 2025vs LAC9 − 20L

LAC · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Nov 16, 2025at JAX6 − 35L
Nov 9, 2025vs PIT25 − 10W
Nov 2, 2025at TEN27 − 20W
Oct 23, 2025vs MIN37 − 10W
Oct 19, 2025vs IND24 − 38L
Oct 12, 2025at MIA29 − 27W
Oct 5, 2025vs WSH10 − 27L
Sep 28, 2025at NYG18 − 21L
Sep 21, 2025vs DEN23 − 20W
Sep 15, 2025at LV20 − 9W