bayesRatings

Chargers at Jaguars

NFL · Sunday, Nov 16 · 12:00 PM CT · EverBank Stadium · Final LAC 6 – JAX 35
← NFL / Nov 16, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAC33006
JAX7771435
Team box
LAC·JAX
135
total yards
345
93
passing yards
153
42
rushing yards
192
8
first downs
30
3-12
third downs
5-10
1
turnovers
1
22:05
time of possession
37:55
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Justin HerbertLAC10/188101
Trevor LawrenceJAX14/2215311
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Justin HerbertLAC3210
Bhayshul TutenJAX15741
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Keenan AllenLAC4530
Jakobi MeyersJAX5640

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
JAX +29
LAC +29
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: JAX 29 · LAC 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAC 55%, JAX 45% · Updated Nov 16, 2025

Expected margin
LAC by 3.3
Expected score
LAC 23.8 – 20.5 JAX
Expected total
44.2
ChargersThe matchupJaguars
−125Our fair odds+125
23.8Expected points20.5
+0.30Power rating−0.21
24.0Points / game22.8
20.3Allowed / game24.4
368Total yards / game325
5.6Yards / play5.0
245Passing yards / game205
7−3Season record5−4
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAC chance · JAX chance
Our model fair55.5%44.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LACLos Angeles Chargers−12555%————
JAXJacksonville Jaguars+12545%————
SpreadLAC by 3.3
LACLos Angeles Chargers−3.3our margin————
JAXJacksonville Jaguars+3.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 44.2
Over44.2our total————
Under44.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Chargers by 3.3 expected
Los Angeles Chargers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 31 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 24 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 21 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 17 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 14 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 7 points: 5%Los Angeles Chargers by 6 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 3 points: 9%Los Angeles Chargers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 1 point: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 2 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 3 points: 7%Jacksonville Jaguars by 4 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 5 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 6 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 7 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 8 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 9 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 10 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 11 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 12 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 13 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 14 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 15 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 16 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 17 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 18 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 19 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 20 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 21 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 22 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 23 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 24 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 25 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 26 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 27 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 28 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 29 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 30 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 31 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 32 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 33 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 34 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 35 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 36 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 37 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 38 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 39 points: <1%
← LAC wins byJAX wins by →
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 3 or more56%
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 7 or more37%
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 10 or more29%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

44.2 expected
10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 37.567%
Total over 44.547%
Total over 51.528%
Total from 38 to 5139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
LACJustin Herbert · last 3 games: 66% completions, 232 yds/game, 6 TD, 2 INTstarted
JAXTrevor Lawrence · last 3 games: 56% completions, 225 yds/game, 2 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAC·JAX
Nov 9, 2025 vs PIT
last game
Nov 9, 2025 at HOU
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
LAC·JAX
+0.30
rating (0 = average)
−0.21
24.0
points / game
22.8
20.3
points allowed / game
24.4
7−3
season record
5−4
4−2
home record
3−2
3−1
away record
2−2
W3
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
5−5
368
total yards / game
325
5.6
yards / play
5.0
245
passing yards / game
205
123
rushing yards / game
120
21.4
first downs / game
19.9
1.2
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

LAC · JAX · 29 days
Los Angeles ChargersJacksonville Jaguars
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · JAX 2−0
Jan 14, 2023at JAXJAX 31 − 30post
Sep 25, 2022at LACJAX 38 − 10

LAC · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Nov 9, 2025vs PIT25 − 10W
Nov 2, 2025at TEN27 − 20W
Oct 23, 2025vs MIN37 − 10W
Oct 19, 2025vs IND24 − 38L
Oct 12, 2025at MIA29 − 27W
Oct 5, 2025vs WSH10 − 27L
Sep 28, 2025at NYG18 − 21L
Sep 21, 2025vs DEN23 − 20W
Sep 15, 2025at LV20 − 9W
Sep 5, 2025vs KC27 − 21W

JAX · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Nov 9, 2025at HOU29 − 36L
Nov 2, 2025at LV30 − 29W
Oct 19, 2025vs LAR7 − 35L
Oct 12, 2025vs SEA12 − 20L
Oct 6, 2025vs KC31 − 28W
Sep 28, 2025at SF26 − 21W
Sep 21, 2025vs HOU17 − 10W
Sep 14, 2025at CIN27 − 31L
Sep 7, 2025vs CAR26 − 10W
Jan 5, 2025at IND23 − 26L