bayesRatings

Eagles at Commanders

NFL · Saturday, Dec 20 · 4:00 PM CT · Northwest Stadium · Final PHI 29 – WSH 18
← NFL / Dec 20, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHI7071529
WSH370818
Team box
PHI·WSH
385
total yards
220
178
passing yards
130
207
rushing yards
90
26
first downs
15
4-9
third downs
2-10
1
turnovers
1
34:07
time of possession
25:53
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jalen HurtsPHI22/3018520
Marcus MariotaWSH7/149500
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Saquon BarkleyPHI211321
Chris Rodriguez Jr.WSH15631
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
A.J. BrownPHI9950
Terry McLaurinWSH3530

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +19
PHI +19
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: WSH 3 · PHI 19lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 69%, WSH 31% · Updated Dec 20, 2025

Expected margin
PHI by 6.7
Expected score
PHI 27.1 – 20.3 WSH
Expected total
47.4
EaglesThe matchupCommanders
−228Our fair odds+228
27.1Expected points20.3
+0.68Power rating−0.46
22.9Points / game20.8
19.4Allowed / game26.8
315Total yards / game328
5.4Yards / play5.5
199Passing yards / game191
9−5Season record4−10
5−5Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · WSH chance
Our model fair69.5%30.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles−22869%————
WSHWashington Commanders+22831%————
SpreadPHI by 6.7
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles−6.7our margin————
WSHWashington Commanders+6.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 47.4
Over47.4our total————
Under47.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Eagles by 6.7 expected
Philadelphia Eagles by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 34 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 31 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 28 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 26 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 25 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 24 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 23 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 21 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 20 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 17 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 16 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 14 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 13 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 12 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 11 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 10 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 9 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 8 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 7 points: 5%Philadelphia Eagles by 6 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 5 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 4 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 3 points: 8%Philadelphia Eagles by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Washington Commanders by 1 point: 2%Washington Commanders by 2 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 3 points: 6%Washington Commanders by 4 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 5 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 6 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 7 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 8 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 9 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 10 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 11 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 12 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 13 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 14 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 15 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 16 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 17 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 18 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 19 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 20 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 21 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 22 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 23 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 24 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 25 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 26 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 27 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 28 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 29 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 30 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 31 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 32 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 33 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 34 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 35 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 36 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 37 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 38 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 39 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 40 points: <1%
← PHI wins byWSH wins by →
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 3 or more65%
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 7 or more47%
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 10 or more39%
Within 3 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

47.4 expected
13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 1%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 40.567%
Total over 47.547%
Total over 54.530%
Total from 41 to 5437%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
PHIJalen Hurts · last 3 games: 58% completions, 215 yds/game, 5 TD, 5 INTstarted
WSHMarcus Mariota · last 3 games: 55% completions, 178 yds/game, 3 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·WSH
Dec 14, 2025 vs LV
last game
Dec 14, 2025 at NYG
5 days
days of rest
5 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
PHI·WSH
+0.68
rating (0 = average)
−0.46
22.9
points / game
20.8
19.4
points allowed / game
26.8
9−5
season record
4−10
5−2
home record
2−4
4−3
away record
2−6
W1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
2−8
315
total yards / game
328
5.4
yards / play
5.5
199
passing yards / game
191
116
rushing yards / game
137
17.9
first downs / game
19.0
0.9
turnovers / game
1.4

Rating Trend

PHI · WSH · 45 days
Philadelphia EaglesWashington Commanders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · WSH 2−7
Jan 26, 2025at PHIPHI 55 − 23post
Dec 22, 2024at WSHWSH 36 − 33
Nov 14, 2024at PHIPHI 26 − 18
Oct 29, 2023at WSHPHI 38 − 31
Oct 1, 2023at PHIPHI 34 − 31
Nov 14, 2022at PHIWSH 32 − 21
Sep 25, 2022at WSHPHI 24 − 8
Jan 2, 2022at WSHPHI 20 − 16
Dec 21, 2021at PHIPHI 27 − 17

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Dec 14, 2025vs LV31 − 0W
Dec 8, 2025at LAC19 − 22L
Nov 28, 2025vs CHI15 − 24L
Nov 23, 2025at DAL21 − 24L
Nov 16, 2025vs DET16 − 9W
Nov 10, 2025at GB10 − 7W
Oct 26, 2025vs NYG38 − 20W
Oct 19, 2025at MIN28 − 22W
Oct 9, 2025at NYG17 − 34L
Oct 5, 2025vs DEN17 − 21L

WSH · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Dec 14, 2025at NYG29 − 21W
Dec 7, 2025at MIN0 − 31L
Nov 30, 2025vs DEN26 − 27L
Nov 16, 2025at MIA13 − 16L
Nov 9, 2025vs DET22 − 44L
Nov 2, 2025vs SEA14 − 38L
Oct 27, 2025at KC7 − 28L
Oct 19, 2025at DAL22 − 44L
Oct 13, 2025vs CHI24 − 25L
Oct 5, 2025at LAC27 − 10W