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Commanders at Dolphins

NFL · Sunday, Nov 16 · 8:30 AM CT · Santiago Bernabéu · neutral site · Final WSH 13 – MIA 16
← NFL / Nov 16, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
WSH3370013
MIA3307316
Team box
WSH·MIA
379
total yards
311
207
passing yards
142
172
rushing yards
169
22
first downs
19
6-13
third downs
3-9
2
turnovers
0
32:36
time of possession
29:51
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Marcus MariotaWSH20/3021311
Tua TagovailoaMIA14/2017100
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Chris Rodriguez Jr.WSH15790
De'Von AchaneMIA211200
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Deebo Samuel Sr.WSH7741
Jaylen WaddleMIA3520

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +7
WSH +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: MIA 3 · WSH 7lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 51%, MIA 49% · Updated Nov 16, 2025

Expected margin
MIA by 0.4
Expected score
MIA 25.4 – 25.1 WSH
Expected total
50.5
CommandersThe matchupDolphins
−105Our fair odds+105
25.1Expected points25.4
−0.26Power rating−0.32
22.3Points / game21.0
28.0Allowed / game25.6
325Total yards / game299
5.7Yards / play5.4
190Passing yards / game192
3−7Season record3−7
3−7Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · MIA chance
Our model fair51.3%48.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Commanders−10551%————
MIAMiami Dolphins+10549%————
SpreadMIA by 0.4
WSHWashington Commanders+0.4our margin————
MIAMiami Dolphins−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 50.5
Over50.5our total————
Under50.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Dolphins by 0.4 expected
Washington Commanders by 40 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 39 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 38 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 37 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 36 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 35 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 34 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 33 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 32 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 31 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 30 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 29 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 28 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 27 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 26 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 25 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 24 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 23 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 22 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 21 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 20 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 19 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 18 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 17 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 16 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 15 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 14 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 13 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 12 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 11 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 10 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 9 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 8 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 7 points: 5%Washington Commanders by 6 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 5 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 4 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 3 points: 9%Washington Commanders by 2 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Miami Dolphins by 1 point: 2%Miami Dolphins by 2 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 3 points: 7%Miami Dolphins by 4 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 5 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 6 points: 4%Miami Dolphins by 7 points: 4%Miami Dolphins by 8 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 9 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 10 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 11 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 12 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 13 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 14 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 15 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 16 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 17 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 18 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 19 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 20 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 21 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 22 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 23 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 24 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 25 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 26 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 27 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 28 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 29 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 30 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 31 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 32 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 33 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 34 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 35 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 36 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 37 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 38 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 39 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 40 points: <1%
← WSH wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Dolphins wins by 3 or more44%
Miami Dolphins wins by 7 or more28%
Miami Dolphins wins by 10 or more21%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

50.5 expected
16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 43.566%
Total over 50.547%
Total over 57.531%
Total from 44 to 5735%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
WSHMarcus Mariota · last 3 games: 66% completions, 163 yds/game, 3 TD, 3 INTstarted
MIATua Tagovailoa · last 3 games: 69% completions, 213 yds/game, 6 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·MIA
Nov 9, 2025 vs DET
last game
Nov 9, 2025 vs BUF
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 10+ games
WSH·MIA
−0.26
rating (0 = average)
−0.32
22.3
points / game
21.0
28.0
points allowed / game
25.6
3−7
season record
3−7
2−3
home record
2−3
1−4
away record
1−4
L5
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
3−7
325
total yards / game
299
5.7
yards / play
5.4
190
passing yards / game
192
135
rushing yards / game
107
18.3
first downs / game
17.2
1.2
turnovers / game
1.7

Rating Trend

WSH · MIA · 29 days
Washington CommandersMiami Dolphins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · MIA 1−0
Dec 3, 2023at WSHMIA 45 − 15

WSH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L5
Nov 9, 2025vs DET22 − 44L
Nov 2, 2025vs SEA14 − 38L
Oct 27, 2025at KC7 − 28L
Oct 19, 2025at DAL22 − 44L
Oct 13, 2025vs CHI24 − 25L
Oct 5, 2025at LAC27 − 10W
Sep 28, 2025at ATL27 − 34L
Sep 21, 2025vs LV41 − 24W
Sep 11, 2025at GB18 − 27L
Sep 7, 2025vs NYG21 − 6W

MIA · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Nov 9, 2025vs BUF30 − 13W
Oct 30, 2025vs BAL6 − 28L
Oct 26, 2025at ATL34 − 10W
Oct 19, 2025at CLE6 − 31L
Oct 12, 2025vs LAC27 − 29L
Oct 5, 2025at CAR24 − 27L
Sep 29, 2025vs NYJ27 − 21W
Sep 18, 2025at BUF21 − 31L
Sep 14, 2025vs NE27 − 33L
Sep 7, 2025at IND8 − 33L