bayesRatings

Broncos at Commanders

NFL · Sunday, Nov 30 · 7:20 PM CT · Northwest Stadium · Final DEN 27 – WSH 26
← NFL / Nov 30, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
DEN31070727
WSH0776626
Team box
DEN·WSH
402
total yards
419
315
passing yards
276
87
rushing yards
143
23
first downs
30
7-15
third downs
8-17
1
turnovers
1
32:13
time of possession
35:00
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Bo NixDEN29/4532111
Marcus MariotaWSH28/5029421
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
RJ HarveyDEN13352
Marcus MariotaWSH10550
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Evan EngramDEN6790
Zach ErtzWSH101060

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +7
DEN +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: WSH 1 · DEN 7lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 64%, WSH 36% · Updated Nov 30, 2025

Expected margin
DEN by 5.3
Expected score
DEN 26.4 – 21.2 WSH
Expected total
47.6
BroncosThe matchupCommanders
−179Our fair odds+179
26.4Expected points21.2
+0.60Power rating−0.34
23.4Points / game21.5
17.5Allowed / game26.9
335Total yards / game330
5.3Yards / play5.7
213Passing yards / game192
9−2Season record3−8
8−2Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · WSH chance
Our model fair64.1%35.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Broncos−17964%————
WSHWashington Commanders+17936%————
SpreadDEN by 5.3
DENDenver Broncos−5.3our margin————
WSHWashington Commanders+5.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 47.6
Over47.6our total————
Under47.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Broncos by 5.3 expected
Denver Broncos by 40 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 39 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 38 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 37 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 36 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 35 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 34 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 33 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 32 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 31 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 30 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 29 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 28 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 27 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 26 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 25 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 24 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 23 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 22 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 21 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 20 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 19 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 18 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 17 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 16 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 15 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 14 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 13 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 12 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 11 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 10 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 9 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 8 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 7 points: 5%Denver Broncos by 6 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 5 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 4 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 3 points: 9%Denver Broncos by 2 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Washington Commanders by 1 point: 2%Washington Commanders by 2 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 3 points: 6%Washington Commanders by 4 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 5 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 6 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 7 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 8 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 9 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 10 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 11 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 12 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 13 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 14 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 15 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 16 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 17 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 18 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 19 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 20 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 21 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 22 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 23 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 24 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 25 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 26 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 27 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 28 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 29 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 30 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 31 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 32 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 33 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 34 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 35 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 36 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 37 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 38 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 39 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 40 points: <1%
← DEN wins byWSH wins by →
Denver Broncos wins by 3 or more61%
Denver Broncos wins by 7 or more43%
Denver Broncos wins by 10 or more34%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

47.6 expected
13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 1%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 40.567%
Total over 47.547%
Total over 54.530%
Total from 41 to 5437%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
DENBo Nix · last 3 games: 57% completions, 206 yds/game, 3 TD, 3 INTstarted
WSHMarcus Mariota · last 3 games: 70% completions, 213 yds/game, 4 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·WSH
Nov 16, 2025 vs KC
last game
Nov 16, 2025 at MIA
13 days
days of rest
13 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
DEN·WSH
+0.60
rating (0 = average)
−0.34
23.4
points / game
21.5
17.5
points allowed / game
26.9
9−2
season record
3−8
6−0
home record
2−3
3−2
away record
1−5
W8
streak
L6
8−2
last 10
2−8
335
total yards / game
330
5.3
yards / play
5.7
213
passing yards / game
192
122
rushing yards / game
139
18.8
first downs / game
18.6
1.1
turnovers / game
1.3

Rating Trend

DEN · WSH · 36 days
Denver BroncosWashington Commanders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · WSH 1−1
Sep 17, 2023at DENWSH 35 − 33
Oct 31, 2021at DENDEN 17 − 10

DEN · Last 10

8−2 · streak W8
Nov 16, 2025vs KC22 − 19W
Nov 6, 2025vs LV10 − 7W
Nov 2, 2025at HOU18 − 15W
Oct 26, 2025vs DAL44 − 24W
Oct 19, 2025vs NYG33 − 32W
Oct 12, 2025at NYJ13 − 11W
Oct 5, 2025at PHI21 − 17W
Sep 29, 2025vs CIN28 − 3W
Sep 21, 2025at LAC20 − 23L
Sep 14, 2025at IND28 − 29L

WSH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L6
Nov 16, 2025at MIA13 − 16L
Nov 9, 2025vs DET22 − 44L
Nov 2, 2025vs SEA14 − 38L
Oct 27, 2025at KC7 − 28L
Oct 19, 2025at DAL22 − 44L
Oct 13, 2025vs CHI24 − 25L
Oct 5, 2025at LAC27 − 10W
Sep 28, 2025at ATL27 − 34L
Sep 21, 2025vs LV41 − 24W
Sep 11, 2025at GB18 − 27L