bayesRatings

Chiefs at Broncos

NFL · Sunday, Nov 16 · 3:25 PM CT · Empower Field at Mile High · Final KC 19 – DEN 22
← NFL / Nov 16, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
KC337619
DEN607922
Team box
KC·DEN
311
total yards
342
249
passing yards
283
62
rushing yards
59
19
first downs
16
5-13
third downs
7-15
1
turnovers
0
30:31
time of possession
29:29
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Patrick MahomesKC29/4527611
Bo NixDEN24/3729500
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Kareem HuntKC13591
RJ HarveyDEN11300
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Travis KelceKC9911
Troy FranklinDEN4840

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +7
KC +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 7 · KC 3lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 46%, DEN 54% · Updated Nov 16, 2025

Expected margin
DEN by 1.0
Expected score
DEN 19.6 – 18.6 KC
Expected total
38.3
ChiefsThe matchupBroncos
+116Our fair odds−116
18.6Expected points19.6
+0.66Power rating+0.54
26.1Points / game23.5
17.7Allowed / game17.3
370Total yards / game335
5.8Yards / play5.3
249Passing yards / game206
5−4Season record8−2
5−5Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · DEN chance
Our model fair46.3%53.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Chiefs+11646%————
DENDenver Broncos−11654%————
SpreadDEN by 1.0
KCKansas City Chiefs+1our margin————
DENDenver Broncos−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 38.3
Over38.3our total————
Under38.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Broncos by 1.0 expected
Kansas City Chiefs by 40 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 39 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 38 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 37 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 36 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 35 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 34 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 33 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 32 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 31 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 30 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 29 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 28 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 27 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 26 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 25 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 24 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 23 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 22 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 21 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 20 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 19 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 18 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 17 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 16 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 15 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 14 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 13 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 12 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 11 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 10 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 9 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 8 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 7 points: 5%Kansas City Chiefs by 6 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 5 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 4 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 3 points: 9%Kansas City Chiefs by 2 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Denver Broncos by 1 point: 2%Denver Broncos by 2 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 3 points: 7%Denver Broncos by 4 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 5 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 6 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 7 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 8 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 9 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 10 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 11 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 12 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 13 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 14 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 15 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 16 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 17 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 18 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 19 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 20 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 21 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 22 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 23 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 24 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 25 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 26 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 27 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 28 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 29 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 30 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 31 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 32 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 33 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 34 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 35 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 36 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 37 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 38 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 39 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 40 points: <1%
← KC wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Broncos wins by 3 or more46%
Denver Broncos wins by 7 or more30%
Denver Broncos wins by 10 or more22%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

38.3 expected
5 points: <1%6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 3%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 1%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: <1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 31.569%
Total over 38.548%
Total over 45.528%
Total from 32 to 4541%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
KCPatrick Mahomes · last 3 games: 64% completions, 278 yds/game, 6 TD, 3 INTstarted
DENBo Nix · last 3 games: 56% completions, 190 yds/game, 7 TD, 4 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·DEN
Nov 2, 2025 at BUF
last game
Nov 6, 2025 vs LV
13 days
days of rest
9 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
KC·DEN
+0.66
rating (0 = average)
+0.54
26.1
points / game
23.5
17.7
points allowed / game
17.3
5−4
season record
8−2
4−1
home record
5−0
1−3
away record
3−2
L1
streak
W7
5−5
last 10
8−2
370
total yards / game
335
5.8
yards / play
5.3
249
passing yards / game
206
121
rushing yards / game
129
22.8
first downs / game
19.1
0.6
turnovers / game
1.2

Rating Trend

KC · DEN · 29 days
Kansas City ChiefsDenver Broncos
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · DEN 2−6
Jan 5, 2025at DENDEN 38 − 0
Nov 10, 2024at KCKC 16 − 14
Oct 29, 2023at DENDEN 24 − 9
Oct 12, 2023at KCKC 19 − 8
Jan 1, 2023at KCKC 27 − 24
Dec 11, 2022at DENKC 34 − 28
Jan 8, 2022at DENKC 28 − 24
Dec 5, 2021at KCKC 22 − 9

KC · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Nov 2, 2025at BUF21 − 28L
Oct 27, 2025vs WSH28 − 7W
Oct 19, 2025vs LV31 − 0W
Oct 12, 2025vs DET30 − 17W
Oct 6, 2025at JAX28 − 31L
Sep 28, 2025vs BAL37 − 20W
Sep 21, 2025at NYG22 − 9W
Sep 14, 2025vs PHI17 − 20L
Sep 5, 2025at LAC21 − 27L
Feb 9, 2025at PHI22 − 40L

DEN · Last 10

8−2 · streak W7
Nov 6, 2025vs LV10 − 7W
Nov 2, 2025at HOU18 − 15W
Oct 26, 2025vs DAL44 − 24W
Oct 19, 2025vs NYG33 − 32W
Oct 12, 2025at NYJ13 − 11W
Oct 5, 2025at PHI21 − 17W
Sep 29, 2025vs CIN28 − 3W
Sep 21, 2025at LAC20 − 23L
Sep 14, 2025at IND28 − 29L
Sep 7, 2025vs TEN20 − 12W