bayesRatings

Commanders at Vikings

NFL · Sunday, Dec 7 · 12:00 PM CT · U.S. Bank Stadium · Final WSH 0 – MIN 31
← NFL / Dec 7, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
WSH00000
MIN7710731
Team box
WSH·MIN
206
total yards
313
99
passing yards
151
107
rushing yards
162
12
first downs
25
3-10
third downs
6-11
3
turnovers
0
25:08
time of possession
34:52
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jayden DanielsWSH9/207801
J.J. McCarthyMIN16/2316330
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Chris Rodriguez Jr.WSH10520
Aaron Jones Sr.MIN14760
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Terry McLaurinWSH3410
Jordan AddisonMIN4620

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +31
WSH +31
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 31 · WSH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 37%, MIN 63% · Updated Dec 7, 2025

Expected margin
MIN by 3.3
Expected score
MIN 24.3 – 21.0 WSH
Expected total
45.3
CommandersThe matchupVikings
+172Our fair odds−172
21.0Expected points24.3
−0.36Power rating−0.08
21.8Points / game18.7
26.9Allowed / game23.4
338Total yards / game273
5.6Yards / play4.8
199Passing yards / game173
3−9Season record4−8
2−8Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · MIN chance
Our model fair36.7%63.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Commanders+17237%————
MINMinnesota Vikings−17263%————
SpreadMIN by 3.3
WSHWashington Commanders+3.3our margin————
MINMinnesota Vikings−3.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 45.3
Over45.3our total————
Under45.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Vikings by 3.3 expected
Washington Commanders by 42 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 41 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 40 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 39 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 38 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 37 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 36 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 35 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 34 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 33 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 32 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 31 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 30 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 29 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 28 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 27 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 26 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 25 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 24 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 23 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 22 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 21 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 20 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 19 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 18 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 17 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 16 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 15 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 14 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 13 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 12 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 11 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 10 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 9 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 8 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 7 points: 4%Washington Commanders by 6 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 5 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 4 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 3 points: 8%Washington Commanders by 2 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 2 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 3 points: 7%Minnesota Vikings by 4 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 5 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 6 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 7 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 9 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 10 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 11 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 12 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 13 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 15 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 16 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 17 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 24 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 34 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 42 points: <1%
← WSH wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Vikings wins by 3 or more52%
Minnesota Vikings wins by 7 or more36%
Minnesota Vikings wins by 10 or more28%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

45.3 expected
11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 38.567%
Total over 45.547%
Total over 52.529%
Total from 39 to 5238%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
WSHJayden Daniels · last 3 games: 67% completions, 173 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTstarted
MINJ.J. McCarthy · last 3 games: 52% completions, 162 yds/game, 2 TD, 6 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·MIN
Nov 30, 2025 vs DEN
last game
Nov 30, 2025 at SEA
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
WSH·MIN
−0.36
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
21.8
points / game
18.7
26.9
points allowed / game
23.4
3−9
season record
4−8
2−4
home record
1−4
1−5
away record
3−4
L7
streak
L4
2−8
last 10
3−7
338
total yards / game
273
5.6
yards / play
4.8
199
passing yards / game
173
139
rushing yards / game
99
19.6
first downs / game
16.3
1.2
turnovers / game
2.2

Rating Trend

WSH · MIN · 39 days
Washington CommandersMinnesota Vikings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · MIN 1−0
Nov 6, 2022at WSHMIN 20 − 17

WSH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L7
Nov 30, 2025vs DEN26 − 27L
Nov 16, 2025at MIA13 − 16L
Nov 9, 2025vs DET22 − 44L
Nov 2, 2025vs SEA14 − 38L
Oct 27, 2025at KC7 − 28L
Oct 19, 2025at DAL22 − 44L
Oct 13, 2025vs CHI24 − 25L
Oct 5, 2025at LAC27 − 10W
Sep 28, 2025at ATL27 − 34L
Sep 21, 2025vs LV41 − 24W

MIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Nov 30, 2025at SEA0 − 26L
Nov 23, 2025at GB6 − 23L
Nov 16, 2025vs CHI17 − 19L
Nov 9, 2025vs BAL19 − 27L
Nov 2, 2025at DET27 − 24W
Oct 23, 2025at LAC10 − 37L
Oct 19, 2025vs PHI22 − 28L
Oct 5, 2025at CLE21 − 17W
Sep 28, 2025at PIT21 − 24L
Sep 21, 2025vs CIN48 − 10W