bayesRatings

Vikings at Seahawks

NFL · Sunday, Nov 30 · 3:05 PM CT · Lumen Field · Final MIN 0 – SEA 26
← NFL / Nov 30, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN00000
SEA0136726
Team box
MIN·SEA
162
total yards
219
96
passing yards
94
66
rushing yards
125
11
first downs
17
2-10
third downs
6-15
5
turnovers
2
25:39
time of possession
34:21
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Max BrosmerMIN19/3012604
Sam DarnoldSEA14/2612800
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jordan MasonMIN6470
Kenneth Walker IIISEA13560
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
T.J. HockensonMIN6590
AJ BarnerSEA4350

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +26
MIN +26
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SEA 26 · MIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 28%, SEA 72% · Updated Nov 30, 2025

Expected margin
SEA by 9.1
Expected score
SEA 27.4 – 18.3 MIN
Expected total
45.7
VikingsThe matchupSeahawks
+253Our fair odds−253
18.3Expected points27.4
+0.02Power rating+0.68
20.4Points / game29.5
23.2Allowed / game19.7
283Total yards / game365
4.9Yards / play6.4
180Passing yards / game248
4−7Season record8−3
3−7Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · SEA chance
Our model fair28.3%71.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Vikings+25328%————
SEASeattle Seahawks−25372%————
SpreadSEA by 9.1
MINMinnesota Vikings+9.1our margin————
SEASeattle Seahawks−9.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 45.7
Over45.7our total————
Under45.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Seahawks by 9.1 expected
Minnesota Vikings by 48 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 47 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 46 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 28 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 26 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 25 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 24 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 23 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 22 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 21 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 20 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 19 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 18 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 17 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 16 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 15 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 14 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 13 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 12 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 11 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 10 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 9 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 8 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 6 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 5 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 4 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 3 points: 6%Minnesota Vikings by 2 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 1 point: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 2 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 3 points: 7%Seattle Seahawks by 4 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 5 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 6 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 7 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 8 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 9 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 10 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 11 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 12 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 13 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 14 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 15 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 16 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 17 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 18 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 19 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 20 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 21 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 22 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 23 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 24 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 25 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 26 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 27 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 28 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 29 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 30 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 31 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 32 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 33 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 34 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 35 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 36 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 37 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 38 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 39 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 40 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 41 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 42 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 43 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 44 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 45 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 46 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 47 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 48 points: <1%
← MIN wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Seahawks wins by 3 or more68%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 7 or more53%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 10 or more44%
Within 3 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

45.7 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 38.568%
Total over 45.548%
Total over 52.530%
Total from 39 to 5238%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
MINMax Brosmer · last 2 games: 62% completions, 21 yds/game, 0 TD, 0 INTstarted
SEASam Darnold · last 3 games: 67% completions, 234 yds/game, 3 TD, 5 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·SEA
Nov 23, 2025 at GB
last game
Nov 23, 2025 at TEN
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
MIN·SEA
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.68
20.4
points / game
29.5
23.2
points allowed / game
19.7
4−7
season record
8−3
1−4
home record
3−2
3−3
away record
5−1
L3
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
8−2
283
total yards / game
365
4.9
yards / play
6.4
180
passing yards / game
248
102
rushing yards / game
116
16.8
first downs / game
20.4
1.9
turnovers / game
1.8

Rating Trend

MIN · SEA · 36 days
Minnesota VikingsSeattle Seahawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · SEA 0−2
Dec 22, 2024at SEAMIN 27 − 24
Sep 26, 2021at MINMIN 30 − 17

MIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Nov 23, 2025at GB6 − 23L
Nov 16, 2025vs CHI17 − 19L
Nov 9, 2025vs BAL19 − 27L
Nov 2, 2025at DET27 − 24W
Oct 23, 2025at LAC10 − 37L
Oct 19, 2025vs PHI22 − 28L
Oct 5, 2025at CLE21 − 17W
Sep 28, 2025at PIT21 − 24L
Sep 21, 2025vs CIN48 − 10W
Sep 14, 2025vs ATL6 − 22L

SEA · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Nov 23, 2025at TEN30 − 24W
Nov 16, 2025at LAR19 − 21L
Nov 9, 2025vs ARI44 − 22W
Nov 2, 2025at WSH38 − 14W
Oct 20, 2025vs HOU27 − 19W
Oct 12, 2025at JAX20 − 12W
Oct 5, 2025vs TB35 − 38L
Sep 25, 2025at ARI23 − 20W
Sep 21, 2025vs NO44 − 13W
Sep 14, 2025at PIT31 − 17W