bayesRatings

Seahawks at Titans

NFL · Sunday, Nov 23 · 12:00 PM CT · Nissan Stadium · Final SEA 30 – TEN 24
← NFL / Nov 23, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SEA31314030
TEN3014724
Team box
SEA·TEN
353
total yards
296
239
passing yards
232
114
rushing yards
64
19
first downs
18
2-7
third downs
6-17
0
turnovers
0
22:35
time of possession
37:25
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Sam DarnoldSEA16/2624420
Cam WardTEN28/4225610
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Kenneth Walker IIISEA11710
Cam WardTEN6371
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA81672
Gunnar HelmTEN6510

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEN +20
SEA +20
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: TEN 3 · SEA 20lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 83%, TEN 17% · Updated Nov 23, 2025

Expected margin
SEA by 14.0
Expected score
SEA 28.8 – 14.8 TEN
Expected total
43.5
SeahawksThe matchupTitans
−473Our fair odds+473
28.8Expected points14.8
+0.67Power rating−1.31
29.4Points / game14.3
19.3Allowed / game27.3
366Total yards / game242
6.3Yards / play4.2
249Passing yards / game164
7−3Season record1−9
7−3Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · TEN chance
Our model fair82.5%17.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Seahawks−47383%————
TENTennessee Titans+47317%————
SpreadSEA by 14.0
SEASeattle Seahawks−14our margin————
TENTennessee Titans+14our margin————
Totalwe expect 43.5
Over43.5our total————
Under43.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Seahawks by 14.0 expected
Seattle Seahawks by 40 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 39 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 38 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 37 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 36 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 35 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 34 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 33 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 32 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 31 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 30 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 29 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 28 points: 8%Seattle Seahawks by 27 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 26 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 25 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 24 points: 5%Seattle Seahawks by 23 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 22 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 21 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 20 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 19 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 18 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 17 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 16 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 15 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 14 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 13 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 12 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 11 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 10 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 9 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 8 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 7 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 6 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 5 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 4 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 3 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 2 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 1 point: 1%Tie: <1%Tennessee Titans by 1 point: 1%Tennessee Titans by 2 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 3 points: 3%Tennessee Titans by 4 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 5 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 6 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 7 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 8 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 9 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 10 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 11 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 12 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 13 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 14 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 15 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 16 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 17 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 18 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 19 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 20 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 21 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 22 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 23 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 24 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 25 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 26 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 27 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 28 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 29 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 30 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 31 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 32 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 33 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 34 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 35 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 36 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 37 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 38 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 39 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 40 points: <1%
← SEA wins byTEN wins by →
Seattle Seahawks wins by 3 or more77%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 7 or more68%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 10 or more63%
Within 3 points either way11%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

43.5 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 36.568%
Total over 43.548%
Total over 50.529%
Total from 37 to 5039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
SEASam Darnold · last 3 games: 75% completions, 262 yds/game, 5 TD, 6 INTstarted
TENCam Ward · last 3 games: 60% completions, 199 yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·TEN
Nov 16, 2025 at LAR
last game
Nov 16, 2025 vs HOU
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 10+ games
SEA·TEN
+0.67
rating (0 = average)
−1.31
29.4
points / game
14.3
19.3
points allowed / game
27.3
7−3
season record
1−9
3−2
home record
0−5
4−1
away record
1−4
L1
streak
L5
7−3
last 10
1−9
366
total yards / game
242
6.3
yards / play
4.2
249
passing yards / game
164
116
rushing yards / game
79
20.5
first downs / game
15.1
2.0
turnovers / game
1.4

Rating Trend

SEA · TEN · 32 days
Seattle SeahawksTennessee Titans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · TEN 1−1
Dec 24, 2023at TENSEA 20 − 17
Sep 19, 2021at SEATEN 33 − 30

SEA · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Nov 16, 2025at LAR19 − 21L
Nov 9, 2025vs ARI44 − 22W
Nov 2, 2025at WSH38 − 14W
Oct 20, 2025vs HOU27 − 19W
Oct 12, 2025at JAX20 − 12W
Oct 5, 2025vs TB35 − 38L
Sep 25, 2025at ARI23 − 20W
Sep 21, 2025vs NO44 − 13W
Sep 14, 2025at PIT31 − 17W
Sep 7, 2025vs SF13 − 17L

TEN · Last 10

1−9 · streak L5
Nov 16, 2025vs HOU13 − 16L
Nov 2, 2025vs LAC20 − 27L
Oct 26, 2025at IND14 − 38L
Oct 19, 2025vs NE13 − 31L
Oct 12, 2025at LV10 − 20L
Oct 5, 2025at ARI22 − 21W
Sep 28, 2025at HOU0 − 26L
Sep 21, 2025vs IND20 − 41L
Sep 14, 2025vs LAR19 − 33L
Sep 7, 2025at DEN12 − 20L