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Commanders at Giants

NFL · Sunday, Dec 14 · 12:00 PM CT · MetLife Stadium · Final WSH 29 – NYG 21
← NFL / Dec 14, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
WSH3190729
NYG077721
Team box
WSH·NYG
340
total yards
384
195
passing yards
238
145
rushing yards
146
19
first downs
22
3-11
third downs
2-12
2
turnovers
1
30:48
time of possession
29:12
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Marcus MariotaWSH10/1921110
Jaxson DartNYG20/3624621
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jacory Croskey-MerrittWSH18961
Tyrone Tracy Jr.NYG15701
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Terry McLaurinWSH3691
Theo JohnsonNYG3720

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYG +15
WSH +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NYG 0 · WSH 15lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 52%, NYG 48% · Updated Dec 14, 2025

Expected margin
WSH by 0.6
Expected score
WSH 25.6 – 25.0 NYG
Expected total
50.6
CommandersThe matchupGiants
−110Our fair odds+110
25.6Expected points25.0
−0.51Power rating−0.87
20.2Points / game21.5
27.2Allowed / game28.2
327Total yards / game340
5.5Yards / play5.2
191Passing yards / game217
3−10Season record2−11
1−9Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · NYG chance
Our model fair52.5%47.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Commanders−11052%————
NYGNew York Giants+11048%————
SpreadWSH by 0.6
WSHWashington Commanders−0.6our margin————
NYGNew York Giants+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 50.6
Over50.6our total————
Under50.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Washington Commanders by 0.6 expected
Washington Commanders by 38 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 37 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 36 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 35 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 34 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 33 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 32 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 31 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 30 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 29 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 28 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 27 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 26 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 25 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 24 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 23 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 22 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 21 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 20 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 19 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 18 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 17 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 16 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 15 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 14 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 13 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 12 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 11 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 10 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 9 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 8 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 7 points: 5%Washington Commanders by 6 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 5 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 4 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 3 points: 9%Washington Commanders by 2 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New York Giants by 1 point: 2%New York Giants by 2 points: 3%New York Giants by 3 points: 7%New York Giants by 4 points: 2%New York Giants by 5 points: 2%New York Giants by 6 points: 4%New York Giants by 7 points: 4%New York Giants by 8 points: 3%New York Giants by 9 points: 1%New York Giants by 10 points: 2%New York Giants by 11 points: 1%New York Giants by 12 points: 1%New York Giants by 13 points: 1%New York Giants by 14 points: 1%New York Giants by 15 points: 1%New York Giants by 16 points: 1%New York Giants by 17 points: 2%New York Giants by 18 points: 1%New York Giants by 19 points: <1%New York Giants by 20 points: 1%New York Giants by 21 points: 1%New York Giants by 22 points: 1%New York Giants by 23 points: 1%New York Giants by 24 points: 1%New York Giants by 25 points: 1%New York Giants by 26 points: <1%New York Giants by 27 points: <1%New York Giants by 28 points: <1%New York Giants by 29 points: <1%New York Giants by 30 points: <1%New York Giants by 31 points: 1%New York Giants by 32 points: <1%New York Giants by 33 points: <1%New York Giants by 34 points: <1%New York Giants by 35 points: <1%New York Giants by 36 points: <1%New York Giants by 37 points: <1%New York Giants by 38 points: <1%
← WSH wins byNYG wins by →
Washington Commanders wins by 3 or more48%
Washington Commanders wins by 7 or more30%
Washington Commanders wins by 10 or more22%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

50.6 expected
16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 43.566%
Total over 50.548%
Total over 57.531%
Total from 44 to 5735%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
WSHMarcus Mariota · last 3 games: 60% completions, 179 yds/game, 3 TD, 3 INTstarted
NYGJaxson Dart · last 3 games: 70% completions, 191 yds/game, 3 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·NYG
Dec 7, 2025 at MIN
last game
Dec 1, 2025 at NE
6 days
days of rest
12 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
WSH·NYG
−0.51
rating (0 = average)
−0.87
20.2
points / game
21.5
27.2
points allowed / game
28.2
3−10
season record
2−11
2−4
home record
2−3
1−6
away record
0−8
L8
streak
L7
1−9
last 10
2−8
327
total yards / game
340
5.5
yards / play
5.2
191
passing yards / game
217
136
rushing yards / game
123
19.0
first downs / game
20.5
1.4
turnovers / game
1.1

Rating Trend

WSH · NYG · 42 days
Washington CommandersNew York Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · NYG 3−6
Sep 7, 2025at WSHWSH 21 − 6
Nov 3, 2024at NYGWSH 27 − 22
Sep 15, 2024at WSHWSH 21 − 18
Nov 19, 2023at WSHNYG 31 − 19
Oct 22, 2023at NYGNYG 14 − 7
Dec 18, 2022at WSHNYG 20 − 12
Dec 4, 2022at NYGWSH 20 − 20
Jan 9, 2022at NYGWSH 22 − 7
Sep 16, 2021at WSHWSH 30 − 29

WSH · Last 10

1−9 · streak L8
Dec 7, 2025at MIN0 − 31L
Nov 30, 2025vs DEN26 − 27L
Nov 16, 2025at MIA13 − 16L
Nov 9, 2025vs DET22 − 44L
Nov 2, 2025vs SEA14 − 38L
Oct 27, 2025at KC7 − 28L
Oct 19, 2025at DAL22 − 44L
Oct 13, 2025vs CHI24 − 25L
Oct 5, 2025at LAC27 − 10W
Sep 28, 2025at ATL27 − 34L

NYG · Last 10

2−8 · streak L7
Dec 1, 2025at NE15 − 33L
Nov 23, 2025at DET27 − 34L
Nov 16, 2025vs GB20 − 27L
Nov 9, 2025at CHI20 − 24L
Nov 2, 2025vs SF24 − 34L
Oct 26, 2025at PHI20 − 38L
Oct 19, 2025at DEN32 − 33L
Oct 9, 2025vs PHI34 − 17W
Oct 5, 2025at NO14 − 26L
Sep 28, 2025vs LAC21 − 18W