bayesRatings

Cowboys at Commanders

NFL · Thursday, Dec 25 · 12:00 PM CT · Northwest Stadium · Final DAL 30 – WSH 23
← NFL / Dec 25, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL7173330
WSH3710323
Team box
DAL·WSH
480
total yards
328
269
passing yards
190
211
rushing yards
138
28
first downs
17
8-20
third downs
1-6
0
turnovers
0
38:44
time of possession
21:16
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Dak PrescottDAL19/3730720
Josh JohnsonWSH15/2319800
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Malik DavisDAL201030
Jacory Croskey-MerrittWSH111052
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
KaVontae TurpinDAL1861
Deebo Samuel Sr.WSH2680

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +18
DAL +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: WSH 0 · DAL 18lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 48%, WSH 52% · Updated Dec 25, 2025

Expected margin
DAL by 2.0
Expected score
DAL 30.5 – 28.5 WSH
Expected total
59.0
CowboysThe matchupCommanders
+108Our fair odds−108
30.5Expected points28.5
−0.37Power rating−0.53
28.3Points / game20.6
30.3Allowed / game26.9
393Total yards / game321
6.0Yards / play5.4
274Passing yards / game187
6−8−1Season record4−11
4−6Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · WSH chance
Our model fair48.1%51.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Cowboys+10848%————
WSHWashington Commanders−10852%————
SpreadDAL by 2.0
DALDallas Cowboys−2our margin————
WSHWashington Commanders+2our margin————
Totalwe expect 59.0
Over59.0our total————
Under59.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Dallas Cowboys by 2.0 expected
Dallas Cowboys by 38 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 37 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 36 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 35 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 34 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 33 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 32 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 31 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 30 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 29 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 28 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 27 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 26 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 25 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 24 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 23 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 22 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 21 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 20 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 19 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 18 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 17 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 16 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 15 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 14 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 13 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 12 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 11 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 10 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 9 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 8 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 7 points: 5%Dallas Cowboys by 6 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 5 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 4 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 3 points: 9%Dallas Cowboys by 2 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Washington Commanders by 1 point: 2%Washington Commanders by 2 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 3 points: 7%Washington Commanders by 4 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 5 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 6 points: 4%Washington Commanders by 7 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 8 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 9 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 10 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 11 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 12 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 13 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 14 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 15 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 16 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 17 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 18 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 19 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 20 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 21 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 22 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 23 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 24 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 25 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 26 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 27 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 28 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 29 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 30 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 31 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 32 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 33 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 34 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 35 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 36 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 37 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 38 points: <1%
← DAL wins byWSH wins by →
Dallas Cowboys wins by 3 or more52%
Dallas Cowboys wins by 7 or more33%
Dallas Cowboys wins by 10 or more25%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

59.0 expected
22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: <1%27 points: <1%28 points: <1%29 points: <1%30 points: <1%31 points: <1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 1%38 points: 1%39 points: 1%40 points: 1%41 points: 2%42 points: 1%43 points: 2%44 points: 2%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 3%67 points: 2%68 points: 2%69 points: 2%70 points: 2%71 points: 2%72 points: 2%73 points: 2%74 points: 2%75 points: 2%76 points: 2%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: 1%83 points: 1%84 points: 1%85 points: <1%86 points: 1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: 1%90 points: 1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%97 points: <1%98 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 52.564%
Total over 59.549%
Total over 66.532%
Total from 53 to 6632%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
DALDak Prescott · last 3 games: 65% completions, 305 yds/game, 3 TD, 2 INTstarted
WSHJosh Johnson · last 3 games: 58% completions, 20 yds/game, 0 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·WSH
Dec 21, 2025 vs LAC
last game
Dec 20, 2025 vs PHI
3 days
days of rest
4 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
DAL·WSH
−0.37
rating (0 = average)
−0.53
28.3
points / game
20.6
30.3
points allowed / game
26.9
6−8−1
season record
4−11
4−3−1
home record
2−5
2−5
away record
2−6
L3
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
1−9
393
total yards / game
321
6.0
yards / play
5.4
274
passing yards / game
187
119
rushing yards / game
134
23.1
first downs / game
18.7
1.3
turnovers / game
1.4

Rating Trend

DAL · WSH · 48 days
Dallas CowboysWashington Commanders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · WSH 2−7
Oct 19, 2025at DALDAL 44 − 22
Jan 5, 2025at DALWSH 23 − 19
Nov 24, 2024at WSHDAL 34 − 26
Jan 7, 2024at WSHDAL 38 − 10
Nov 23, 2023at DALDAL 45 − 10
Jan 8, 2023at WSHWSH 26 − 6
Oct 2, 2022at DALDAL 25 − 10
Dec 26, 2021at DALDAL 56 − 14
Dec 12, 2021at WSHDAL 27 − 20

DAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Dec 21, 2025vs LAC17 − 34L
Dec 14, 2025vs MIN26 − 34L
Dec 4, 2025at DET30 − 44L
Nov 27, 2025vs KC31 − 28W
Nov 23, 2025vs PHI24 − 21W
Nov 17, 2025at LV33 − 16W
Nov 3, 2025vs ARI17 − 27L
Oct 26, 2025at DEN24 − 44L
Oct 19, 2025vs WSH44 − 22W
Oct 12, 2025at CAR27 − 30L

WSH · Last 10

1−9 · streak L1
Dec 20, 2025vs PHI18 − 29L
Dec 14, 2025at NYG29 − 21W
Dec 7, 2025at MIN0 − 31L
Nov 30, 2025vs DEN26 − 27L
Nov 16, 2025at MIA13 − 16L
Nov 9, 2025vs DET22 − 44L
Nov 2, 2025vs SEA14 − 38L
Oct 27, 2025at KC7 − 28L
Oct 19, 2025at DAL22 − 44L
Oct 13, 2025vs CHI24 − 25L