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Cowboys at Lions

NFL · Thursday, Dec 4 · 7:15 PM CT · Ford Field · Final DAL 30 – DET 44
← NFL / Dec 4, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL36101130
DET101071744
Team box
DAL·DET
417
total yards
408
326
passing yards
299
91
rushing yards
109
25
first downs
20
6-15
third downs
3-8
3
turnovers
0
31:23
time of possession
28:37
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Dak PrescottDAL31/4737612
Jared GoffDET25/3430910
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Javonte WilliamsDAL17671
David MontgomeryDET6601
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
CeeDee LambDAL61210
Jameson WilliamsDET7960

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +18
DAL +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DET 18 · DAL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 26%, DET 74% · Updated Dec 4, 2025

Expected margin
DET by 7.8
Expected score
DET 34.9 – 27.1 DAL
Expected total
61.9
CowboysThe matchupLions
+285Our fair odds−285
27.1Expected points34.9
−0.04Power rating+0.77
29.2Points / game29.2
28.5Allowed / game22.8
393Total yards / game376
6.1Yards / play6.1
271Passing yards / game238
6−5−1Season record7−5
5−4−1Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · DET chance
Our model fair26.0%74.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Cowboys+28526%————
DETDetroit Lions−28574%————
SpreadDET by 7.8
DALDallas Cowboys+7.8our margin————
DETDetroit Lions−7.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 61.9
Over61.9our total————
Under61.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Lions by 7.8 expected
Dallas Cowboys by 47 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 46 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 45 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 44 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 43 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 42 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 41 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 40 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 39 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 38 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 37 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 36 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 35 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 34 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 33 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 32 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 31 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 30 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 29 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 28 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 27 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 26 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 25 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 24 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 23 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 22 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 21 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 20 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 19 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 18 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 17 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 16 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 15 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 14 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 13 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 12 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 11 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 10 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 9 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 8 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 7 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 6 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 5 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 4 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 3 points: 6%Dallas Cowboys by 2 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Detroit Lions by 1 point: 2%Detroit Lions by 2 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 3 points: 7%Detroit Lions by 4 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 5 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 6 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 7 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 8 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 9 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 10 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 11 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 12 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 13 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 14 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 15 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 16 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 17 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 18 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 19 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 20 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 21 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 22 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 23 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 24 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 25 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 26 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 27 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 28 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 29 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 30 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 31 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 32 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 33 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 34 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 35 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 36 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 37 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 38 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 39 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 40 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 41 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 42 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 43 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 44 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 45 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 46 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 47 points: <1%
← DAL wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Lions wins by 3 or more65%
Detroit Lions wins by 7 or more49%
Detroit Lions wins by 10 or more41%
Within 3 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

61.9 expected
24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: <1%27 points: <1%28 points: <1%29 points: <1%30 points: <1%31 points: <1%32 points: <1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 1%38 points: 1%39 points: 1%40 points: 1%41 points: 1%42 points: 1%43 points: 2%44 points: 2%45 points: 1%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 3%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 3%66 points: 3%67 points: 2%68 points: 3%69 points: 2%70 points: 2%71 points: 2%72 points: 2%73 points: 3%74 points: 3%75 points: 2%76 points: 2%77 points: 2%78 points: 2%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: 1%83 points: 1%84 points: 1%85 points: 1%86 points: 1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: 1%90 points: 1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: 1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: 1%97 points: <1%98 points: <1%99 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 54.567%
Total over 61.552%
Total over 68.535%
Total from 55 to 6832%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
DALDak Prescott · last 3 games: 69% completions, 314 yds/game, 8 TD, 2 INTstarted
DETJared Goff · last 3 games: 59% completions, 263 yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·DET
Nov 27, 2025 vs KC
last game
Nov 27, 2025 vs GB
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
DAL·DET
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.77
29.2
points / game
29.2
28.5
points allowed / game
22.8
6−5−1
season record
7−5
4−1−1
home record
4−2
2−4
away record
3−3
W3
streak
L1
5−4−1
last 10
6−4
393
total yards / game
376
6.1
yards / play
6.1
271
passing yards / game
238
122
rushing yards / game
138
23.2
first downs / game
20.0
1.2
turnovers / game
0.7

Rating Trend

DAL · DET · 38 days
Dallas CowboysDetroit Lions
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · DET 1−2
Oct 13, 2024at DALDET 47 − 9
Dec 30, 2023at DALDAL 20 − 19
Oct 23, 2022at DALDAL 24 − 6

DAL · Last 10

5−4−1 · streak W3
Nov 27, 2025vs KC31 − 28W
Nov 23, 2025vs PHI24 − 21W
Nov 17, 2025at LV33 − 16W
Nov 3, 2025vs ARI17 − 27L
Oct 26, 2025at DEN24 − 44L
Oct 19, 2025vs WSH44 − 22W
Oct 12, 2025at CAR27 − 30L
Oct 5, 2025at NYJ37 − 22W
Sep 28, 2025vs GB40 − 40T
Sep 21, 2025at CHI14 − 31L

DET · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Nov 27, 2025vs GB24 − 31L
Nov 23, 2025vs NYG34 − 27W
Nov 16, 2025at PHI9 − 16L
Nov 9, 2025at WSH44 − 22W
Nov 2, 2025vs MIN24 − 27L
Oct 20, 2025vs TB24 − 9W
Oct 12, 2025at KC17 − 30L
Oct 5, 2025at CIN37 − 24W
Sep 28, 2025vs CLE34 − 10W
Sep 22, 2025at BAL38 − 30W