bayesRatings

Chiefs at Cowboys

NFL · Thursday, Nov 27 · 3:30 PM CT · AT&T Stadium · Final KC 28 – DAL 31
← NFL / Nov 27, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
KC14001428
DAL71031131
Team box
KC·DAL
362
total yards
457
243
passing yards
320
119
rushing yards
137
19
first downs
23
5-13
third downs
9-16
0
turnovers
1
29:06
time of possession
30:54
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Patrick MahomesKC23/3426140
Dak PrescottDAL27/3932021
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Kareem HuntKC14580
Javonte WilliamsDAL17590
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Rashee RiceKC8922
CeeDee LambDAL71121

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +10
KC +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 10 · KC 7lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 61%, DAL 39% · Updated Nov 27, 2025

Expected margin
KC by 3.4
Expected score
KC 28.7 – 25.3 DAL
Expected total
54.0
ChiefsThe matchupCowboys
−156Our fair odds+156
28.7Expected points25.3
+0.65Power rating−0.14
25.2Points / game29.1
18.3Allowed / game28.5
376Total yards / game387
5.7Yards / play6.0
258Passing yards / game267
6−5Season record5−5−1
6−4Last 105−4−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · DAL chance
Our model fair60.9%39.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Chiefs−15661%————
DALDallas Cowboys+15639%————
SpreadKC by 3.4
KCKansas City Chiefs−3.4our margin————
DALDallas Cowboys+3.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 54.0
Over54.0our total————
Under54.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Kansas City Chiefs by 3.4 expected
Kansas City Chiefs by 39 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 38 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 37 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 36 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 35 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 34 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 33 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 32 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 31 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 30 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 29 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 28 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 27 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 26 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 25 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 24 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 23 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 22 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 21 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 20 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 19 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 18 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 17 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 16 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 15 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 14 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 13 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 12 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 11 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 10 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 9 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 8 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 7 points: 5%Kansas City Chiefs by 6 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 5 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 4 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 3 points: 9%Kansas City Chiefs by 2 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 1 point: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 2 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 3 points: 7%Dallas Cowboys by 4 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 5 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 6 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 7 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 8 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 9 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 10 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 11 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 12 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 13 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 14 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 15 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 16 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 17 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 18 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 19 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 20 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 21 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 22 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 23 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 24 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 25 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 26 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 27 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 28 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 29 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 30 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 31 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 32 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 33 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 34 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 35 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 36 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 37 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 38 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 39 points: <1%
← KC wins byDAL wins by →
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 3 or more56%
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 7 or more37%
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 10 or more29%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

54.0 expected
18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 2%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: 1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 47.564%
Total over 54.547%
Total over 61.531%
Total from 48 to 6133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
KCPatrick Mahomes · last 3 games: 58% completions, 293 yds/game, 1 TD, 3 INTstarted
DALDak Prescott · last 3 games: 67% completions, 291 yds/game, 7 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·DAL
Nov 23, 2025 vs IND
last game
Nov 23, 2025 vs PHI
3 days
days of rest
3 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
KC·DAL
+0.65
rating (0 = average)
−0.14
25.2
points / game
29.1
18.3
points allowed / game
28.5
6−5
season record
5−5−1
5−1
home record
3−1−1
1−4
away record
2−4
W1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
5−4−1
376
total yards / game
387
5.7
yards / play
6.0
258
passing yards / game
267
118
rushing yards / game
120
23.4
first downs / game
23.3
0.7
turnovers / game
1.3

Rating Trend

KC · DAL · 34 days
Kansas City ChiefsDallas Cowboys
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · DAL 0−1
Nov 21, 2021at KCKC 19 − 9

KC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Nov 23, 2025vs IND23 − 20W
Nov 16, 2025at DEN19 − 22L
Nov 2, 2025at BUF21 − 28L
Oct 27, 2025vs WSH28 − 7W
Oct 19, 2025vs LV31 − 0W
Oct 12, 2025vs DET30 − 17W
Oct 6, 2025at JAX28 − 31L
Sep 28, 2025vs BAL37 − 20W
Sep 21, 2025at NYG22 − 9W
Sep 14, 2025vs PHI17 − 20L

DAL · Last 10

5−4−1 · streak W2
Nov 23, 2025vs PHI24 − 21W
Nov 17, 2025at LV33 − 16W
Nov 3, 2025vs ARI17 − 27L
Oct 26, 2025at DEN24 − 44L
Oct 19, 2025vs WSH44 − 22W
Oct 12, 2025at CAR27 − 30L
Oct 5, 2025at NYJ37 − 22W
Sep 28, 2025vs GB40 − 40T
Sep 21, 2025at CHI14 − 31L
Sep 14, 2025vs NYG40 − 37W