bayesRatings

Colts at Chiefs

NFL · Sunday, Nov 23 · 12:00 PM CT · Arrowhead Stadium · Final IND 20 – KC 23
← NFL / Nov 23, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
IND7760020
KC09011323
Team box
IND·KC
255
total yards
494
181
passing yards
346
74
rushing yards
148
10
first downs
33
5-13
third downs
7-16
0
turnovers
2
25:28
time of possession
42:35
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Daniel JonesIND19/3118120
Patrick MahomesKC29/4635201
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jonathan TaylorIND16580
Kareem HuntKC301041
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Ashton DulinIND1480
Rashee RiceKC81410

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +11
IND +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: KC 3 · IND 11lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 40%, KC 60% · Updated Nov 23, 2025

Expected margin
KC by 1.6
Expected score
KC 23.9 – 22.2 IND
Expected total
46.1
ColtsThe matchupChiefs
+150Our fair odds−150
22.2Expected points23.9
+0.48Power rating+0.61
32.1Points / game25.4
20.6Allowed / game18.1
397Total yards / game364
6.5Yards / play5.7
252Passing yards / game249
8−2Season record5−5
8−2Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · KC chance
Our model fair40.1%59.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndianapolis Colts+15040%————
KCKansas City Chiefs−15060%————
SpreadKC by 1.6
INDIndianapolis Colts+1.6our margin————
KCKansas City Chiefs−1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 46.1
Over46.1our total————
Under46.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Kansas City Chiefs by 1.6 expected
Indianapolis Colts by 41 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 40 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 39 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 38 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 37 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 36 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 35 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 34 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 33 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 32 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 31 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 30 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 29 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 28 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 27 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 26 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 25 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 24 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 23 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 22 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 21 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 20 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 19 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 18 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 17 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 16 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 15 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 14 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 13 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 12 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 11 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 10 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 9 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 8 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 7 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 6 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 5 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 4 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 3 points: 8%Indianapolis Colts by 2 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 1 point: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 2 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 3 points: 7%Kansas City Chiefs by 4 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 5 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 6 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 7 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 8 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 9 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 10 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 11 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 12 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 13 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 14 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 15 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 16 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 17 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 18 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 19 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 20 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 21 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 22 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 23 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 24 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 25 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 26 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 27 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 28 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 29 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 30 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 31 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 32 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 33 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 34 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 35 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 36 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 37 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 38 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 39 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 40 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 41 points: <1%
← IND wins byKC wins by →
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 3 or more47%
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 7 or more31%
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 10 or more24%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

46.1 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 39.566%
Total over 46.546%
Total over 53.529%
Total from 40 to 5338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
INDDaniel Jones · last 3 games: 68% completions, 290 yds/game, 5 TD, 4 INTstarted
KCPatrick Mahomes · last 3 games: 61% completions, 275 yds/game, 4 TD, 4 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·KC
Nov 9, 2025 vs ATL
last game
Nov 16, 2025 at DEN
13 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 10+ games
IND·KC
+0.48
rating (0 = average)
+0.61
32.1
points / game
25.4
20.6
points allowed / game
18.1
8−2
season record
5−5
6−0
home record
4−1
2−2
away record
1−4
W1
streak
L2
8−2
last 10
5−5
397
total yards / game
364
6.5
yards / play
5.7
252
passing yards / game
249
145
rushing yards / game
115
23.7
first downs / game
22.4
1.2
turnovers / game
0.6

Rating Trend

IND · KC · 32 days
Indianapolis ColtsKansas City Chiefs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · KC 0−1
Sep 25, 2022at INDIND 20 − 17

IND · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Nov 9, 2025vs ATL31 − 25W
Nov 2, 2025at PIT20 − 27L
Oct 26, 2025vs TEN38 − 14W
Oct 19, 2025at LAC38 − 24W
Oct 12, 2025vs ARI31 − 27W
Oct 5, 2025vs LV40 − 6W
Sep 28, 2025at LAR20 − 27L
Sep 21, 2025at TEN41 − 20W
Sep 14, 2025vs DEN29 − 28W
Sep 7, 2025vs MIA33 − 8W

KC · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Nov 16, 2025at DEN19 − 22L
Nov 2, 2025at BUF21 − 28L
Oct 27, 2025vs WSH28 − 7W
Oct 19, 2025vs LV31 − 0W
Oct 12, 2025vs DET30 − 17W
Oct 6, 2025at JAX28 − 31L
Sep 28, 2025vs BAL37 − 20W
Sep 21, 2025at NYG22 − 9W
Sep 14, 2025vs PHI17 − 20L
Sep 5, 2025at LAC21 − 27L