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Vikings at Cowboys

NFL · Sunday, Dec 14 · 7:20 PM CT · AT&T Stadium · Final MIN 34 – DAL 26
← NFL / Dec 14, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN71071034
DAL7106326
Team box
MIN·DAL
327
total yards
423
250
passing yards
285
77
rushing yards
138
21
first downs
25
2-9
third downs
2-12
1
turnovers
0
27:24
time of possession
32:36
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
J.J. McCarthyMIN15/2425021
Dak PrescottDAL23/3829400
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Aaron Jones Sr.MIN12340
Javonte WilliamsDAL15911
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
T.J. HockensonMIN4660
CeeDee LambDAL61110

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +11
MIN +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 7 · MIN 11lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 48%, DAL 52% · Updated Dec 14, 2025

Expected margin
DAL by 0.9
Expected score
DAL 27.2 – 26.4 MIN
Expected total
53.6
VikingsThe matchupCowboys
+106Our fair odds−106
26.4Expected points27.2
+0.05Power rating−0.15
19.6Points / game29.3
21.6Allowed / game29.7
276Total yards / game395
4.8Yards / play6.0
171Passing yards / game275
5−8Season record6−6−1
3−7Last 105−4−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · DAL chance
Our model fair48.4%51.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Vikings+10648%————
DALDallas Cowboys−10652%————
SpreadDAL by 0.9
MINMinnesota Vikings+0.9our margin————
DALDallas Cowboys−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 53.6
Over53.6our total————
Under53.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Dallas Cowboys by 0.9 expected
Minnesota Vikings by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 26 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 16 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 15 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 14 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 13 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 12 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 11 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 9 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 8 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 7 points: 5%Minnesota Vikings by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 3 points: 9%Minnesota Vikings by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 1 point: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 2 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 3 points: 7%Dallas Cowboys by 4 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 5 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 6 points: 4%Dallas Cowboys by 7 points: 4%Dallas Cowboys by 8 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 9 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 10 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 11 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 12 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 13 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 14 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 15 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 16 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 17 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 18 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 19 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 20 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 21 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 22 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 23 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 24 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 25 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 26 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 27 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 28 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 29 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 30 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 31 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 32 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 33 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 34 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 35 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 36 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 37 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 38 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 39 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 40 points: <1%
← MIN wins byDAL wins by →
Dallas Cowboys wins by 3 or more45%
Dallas Cowboys wins by 7 or more30%
Dallas Cowboys wins by 10 or more22%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

53.6 expected
18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 2%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 46.566%
Total over 53.548%
Total over 60.532%
Total from 47 to 6034%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
MINJ.J. McCarthy · last 3 games: 59% completions, 133 yds/game, 4 TD, 4 INTstarted
DALDak Prescott · last 3 games: 66% completions, 350 yds/game, 5 TD, 4 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·DAL
Dec 7, 2025 vs WSH
last game
Dec 4, 2025 at DET
6 days
days of rest
9 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
MIN·DAL
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.15
19.6
points / game
29.3
21.6
points allowed / game
29.7
5−8
season record
6−6−1
2−4
home record
4−1−1
3−4
away record
2−5
W1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
5−4−1
276
total yards / game
395
4.8
yards / play
6.0
171
passing yards / game
275
104
rushing yards / game
119
17.0
first downs / game
23.4
2.0
turnovers / game
1.4

Rating Trend

MIN · DAL · 42 days
Minnesota VikingsDallas Cowboys
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · DAL 2−0
Nov 20, 2022at MINDAL 40 − 3
Oct 31, 2021at MINDAL 20 − 16

MIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Dec 7, 2025vs WSH31 − 0W
Nov 30, 2025at SEA0 − 26L
Nov 23, 2025at GB6 − 23L
Nov 16, 2025vs CHI17 − 19L
Nov 9, 2025vs BAL19 − 27L
Nov 2, 2025at DET27 − 24W
Oct 23, 2025at LAC10 − 37L
Oct 19, 2025vs PHI22 − 28L
Oct 5, 2025at CLE21 − 17W
Sep 28, 2025at PIT21 − 24L

DAL · Last 10

5−4−1 · streak L1
Dec 4, 2025at DET30 − 44L
Nov 27, 2025vs KC31 − 28W
Nov 23, 2025vs PHI24 − 21W
Nov 17, 2025at LV33 − 16W
Nov 3, 2025vs ARI17 − 27L
Oct 26, 2025at DEN24 − 44L
Oct 19, 2025vs WSH44 − 22W
Oct 12, 2025at CAR27 − 30L
Oct 5, 2025at NYJ37 − 22W
Sep 28, 2025vs GB40 − 40T