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Chargers at Cowboys

NFL · Sunday, Dec 21 · 12:00 PM CT · AT&T Stadium · Final LAC 34 – DAL 17
← NFL / Dec 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAC71431034
DAL7100017
Team box
LAC·DAL
452
total yards
340
300
passing yards
249
152
rushing yards
91
24
first downs
18
7-11
third downs
4-9
0
turnovers
1
34:27
time of possession
25:33
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Justin HerbertLAC23/2930020
Dak PrescottDAL21/3024420
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Omarion HamptonLAC16851
Javonte WilliamsDAL9340
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Quentin JohnstonLAC41041
George PickensDAL71301

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +17
LAC +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 7 · LAC 17lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAC 57%, DAL 43% · Updated Dec 21, 2025

Expected margin
LAC by 2.4
Expected score
LAC 27.9 – 25.6 DAL
Expected total
53.5
ChargersThe matchupCowboys
−133Our fair odds+133
27.9Expected points25.6
+0.32Power rating−0.25
22.5Points / game29.1
20.3Allowed / game30.0
338Total yards / game397
5.2Yards / play6.0
214Passing yards / game276
10−4Season record6−7−1
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAC chance · DAL chance
Our model fair57.0%43.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LACLos Angeles Chargers−13357%————
DALDallas Cowboys+13343%————
SpreadLAC by 2.4
LACLos Angeles Chargers−2.4our margin————
DALDallas Cowboys+2.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 53.5
Over53.5our total————
Under53.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Chargers by 2.4 expected
Los Angeles Chargers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 14 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 7 points: 5%Los Angeles Chargers by 6 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 3 points: 9%Los Angeles Chargers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 1 point: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 2 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 3 points: 7%Dallas Cowboys by 4 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 5 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 6 points: 4%Dallas Cowboys by 7 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 8 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 9 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 10 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 11 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 12 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 13 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 14 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 15 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 16 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 17 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 18 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 19 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 20 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 21 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 22 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 23 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 24 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 25 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 26 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 27 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 28 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 29 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 30 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 31 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 32 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 33 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 34 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 35 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 36 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 37 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 38 points: <1%
← LAC wins byDAL wins by →
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 3 or more53%
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 7 or more34%
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 10 or more26%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

53.5 expected
18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 2%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 46.565%
Total over 53.548%
Total over 60.532%
Total from 47 to 6034%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
LACJustin Herbert · last 3 games: 61% completions, 167 yds/game, 4 TD, 3 INTstarted
DALDak Prescott · last 3 games: 65% completions, 330 yds/game, 3 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAC·DAL
Dec 14, 2025 at KC
last game
Dec 14, 2025 vs MIN
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
LAC·DAL
+0.32
rating (0 = average)
−0.25
22.5
points / game
29.1
20.3
points allowed / game
30.0
10−4
season record
6−7−1
6−2
home record
4−2−1
4−2
away record
2−5
W3
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
5−5
338
total yards / game
397
5.2
yards / play
6.0
214
passing yards / game
276
123
rushing yards / game
121
19.9
first downs / game
23.5
1.3
turnovers / game
1.3

Rating Trend

LAC · DAL · 46 days
Los Angeles ChargersDallas Cowboys
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · DAL 2−0
Oct 16, 2023at LACDAL 20 − 17
Sep 19, 2021at LACDAL 20 − 17

LAC · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Dec 14, 2025at KC16 − 13W
Dec 8, 2025vs PHI22 − 19W
Nov 30, 2025vs LV31 − 14W
Nov 16, 2025at JAX6 − 35L
Nov 9, 2025vs PIT25 − 10W
Nov 2, 2025at TEN27 − 20W
Oct 23, 2025vs MIN37 − 10W
Oct 19, 2025vs IND24 − 38L
Oct 12, 2025at MIA29 − 27W
Oct 5, 2025vs WSH10 − 27L

DAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Dec 14, 2025vs MIN26 − 34L
Dec 4, 2025at DET30 − 44L
Nov 27, 2025vs KC31 − 28W
Nov 23, 2025vs PHI24 − 21W
Nov 17, 2025at LV33 − 16W
Nov 3, 2025vs ARI17 − 27L
Oct 26, 2025at DEN24 − 44L
Oct 19, 2025vs WSH44 − 22W
Oct 12, 2025at CAR27 − 30L
Oct 5, 2025at NYJ37 − 22W