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Chargers at Chiefs

NFL · Sunday, Dec 14 · 12:00 PM CT · Arrowhead Stadium · Final LAC 16 – KC 13
← NFL / Dec 14, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAC376016
KC760013
Team box
LAC·KC
295
total yards
239
201
passing yards
190
94
rushing yards
49
18
first downs
17
5-14
third downs
6-13
1
turnovers
2
34:42
time of possession
25:18
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Justin HerbertLAC19/2921011
Patrick MahomesKC16/2818901
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Omarion HamptonLAC15610
Isiah PachecoKC11210
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Oronde GadsdenLAC4610
Travis KelceKC7700

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +10
LAC +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: KC 10 · LAC 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAC 40%, KC 60% · Updated Dec 14, 2025

Expected margin
KC by 3.6
Expected score
KC 22.1 – 18.4 LAC
Expected total
40.5
ChargersThe matchupChiefs
+151Our fair odds−151
18.4Expected points22.1
+0.24Power rating+0.40
23.0Points / game24.2
20.8Allowed / game19.4
341Total yards / game367
5.3Yards / play5.6
216Passing yards / game248
9−4Season record6−7
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAC chance · KC chance
Our model fair39.9%60.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LACLos Angeles Chargers+15140%————
KCKansas City Chiefs−15160%————
SpreadKC by 3.6
LACLos Angeles Chargers+3.6our margin————
KCKansas City Chiefs−3.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 40.5
Over40.5our total————
Under40.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Kansas City Chiefs by 3.6 expected
Los Angeles Chargers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 25 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 22 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 15 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 13 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 7 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 3 points: 8%Los Angeles Chargers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 1 point: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 2 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 3 points: 7%Kansas City Chiefs by 4 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 5 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 6 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 7 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 8 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 9 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 10 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 11 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 12 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 13 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 14 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 15 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 16 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 17 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 18 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 19 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 20 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 21 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 22 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 23 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 24 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 25 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 26 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 27 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 28 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 29 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 30 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 31 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 32 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 33 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 34 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 35 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 36 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 37 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 38 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 39 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 40 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 41 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 42 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 43 points: <1%
← LAC wins byKC wins by →
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 3 or more53%
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 7 or more37%
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 10 or more29%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

40.5 expected
7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 1%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 33.569%
Total over 40.548%
Total over 47.529%
Total from 34 to 4740%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
LACJustin Herbert · last 3 games: 58% completions, 124 yds/game, 3 TD, 3 INTstarted
KCPatrick Mahomes · last 3 games: 58% completions, 258 yds/game, 4 TD, 4 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAC·KC
Dec 8, 2025 vs PHI
last game
Dec 7, 2025 vs HOU
5 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
LAC·KC
+0.24
rating (0 = average)
+0.40
23.0
points / game
24.2
20.8
points allowed / game
19.4
9−4
season record
6−7
6−2
home record
5−2
3−2
away record
1−5
W2
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
5−5
341
total yards / game
367
5.3
yards / play
5.6
216
passing yards / game
248
126
rushing yards / game
119
20.0
first downs / game
22.4
1.3
turnovers / game
0.8

Rating Trend

LAC · KC · 42 days
Los Angeles ChargersKansas City Chiefs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · KC 7−2
Sep 5, 2025at LACLAC 27 − 21
Dec 8, 2024at KCKC 19 − 17
Sep 29, 2024at LACKC 17 − 10
Jan 7, 2024at LACKC 13 − 12
Oct 22, 2023at KCKC 31 − 17
Nov 20, 2022at LACKC 30 − 27
Sep 15, 2022at KCKC 27 − 24
Dec 16, 2021at LACKC 34 − 28
Sep 26, 2021at KCLAC 30 − 24

LAC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Dec 8, 2025vs PHI22 − 19W
Nov 30, 2025vs LV31 − 14W
Nov 16, 2025at JAX6 − 35L
Nov 9, 2025vs PIT25 − 10W
Nov 2, 2025at TEN27 − 20W
Oct 23, 2025vs MIN37 − 10W
Oct 19, 2025vs IND24 − 38L
Oct 12, 2025at MIA29 − 27W
Oct 5, 2025vs WSH10 − 27L
Sep 28, 2025at NYG18 − 21L

KC · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Dec 7, 2025vs HOU10 − 20L
Nov 27, 2025at DAL28 − 31L
Nov 23, 2025vs IND23 − 20W
Nov 16, 2025at DEN19 − 22L
Nov 2, 2025at BUF21 − 28L
Oct 27, 2025vs WSH28 − 7W
Oct 19, 2025vs LV31 − 0W
Oct 12, 2025vs DET30 − 17W
Oct 6, 2025at JAX28 − 31L
Sep 28, 2025vs BAL37 − 20W