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Texans at Chiefs

NFL · Sunday, Dec 7 · 7:20 PM CT · Arrowhead Stadium · Final HOU 20 – KC 10
← NFL / Dec 7, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU3701020
KC0010010
Team box
HOU·KC
268
total yards
274
186
passing yards
148
82
rushing yards
126
14
first downs
15
8-18
third downs
4-14
0
turnovers
3
31:58
time of possession
28:02
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
C.J. StroudHOU15/3120310
Patrick MahomesKC14/3316003
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Woody MarksHOU26680
Patrick MahomesKC7590
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Nico CollinsHOU41210
Xavier WorthyKC3550

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +10
HOU +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: KC 0 · HOU 10lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 42%, KC 58% · Updated Dec 7, 2025

Expected margin
KC by 3.7
Expected score
KC 21.5 – 17.8 HOU
Expected total
39.2
TexansThe matchupChiefs
+141Our fair odds−141
17.8Expected points21.5
+0.47Power rating+0.53
21.9Points / game25.4
16.5Allowed / game19.3
327Total yards / game375
5.1Yards / play5.7
219Passing yards / game256
7−5Season record6−6
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · KC chance
Our model fair41.5%58.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Texans+14142%————
KCKansas City Chiefs−14158%————
SpreadKC by 3.7
HOUHouston Texans+3.7our margin————
KCKansas City Chiefs−3.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 39.2
Over39.2our total————
Under39.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Kansas City Chiefs by 3.7 expected
Houston Texans by 43 points: <1%Houston Texans by 42 points: <1%Houston Texans by 41 points: <1%Houston Texans by 40 points: <1%Houston Texans by 39 points: <1%Houston Texans by 38 points: <1%Houston Texans by 37 points: <1%Houston Texans by 36 points: <1%Houston Texans by 35 points: <1%Houston Texans by 34 points: <1%Houston Texans by 33 points: <1%Houston Texans by 32 points: <1%Houston Texans by 31 points: <1%Houston Texans by 30 points: <1%Houston Texans by 29 points: <1%Houston Texans by 28 points: 1%Houston Texans by 27 points: <1%Houston Texans by 26 points: <1%Houston Texans by 25 points: <1%Houston Texans by 24 points: 1%Houston Texans by 23 points: 1%Houston Texans by 22 points: <1%Houston Texans by 21 points: 1%Houston Texans by 20 points: 1%Houston Texans by 19 points: 1%Houston Texans by 18 points: 1%Houston Texans by 17 points: 1%Houston Texans by 16 points: 1%Houston Texans by 15 points: <1%Houston Texans by 14 points: 2%Houston Texans by 13 points: <1%Houston Texans by 12 points: 1%Houston Texans by 11 points: 1%Houston Texans by 10 points: 2%Houston Texans by 9 points: 1%Houston Texans by 8 points: 2%Houston Texans by 7 points: 4%Houston Texans by 6 points: 3%Houston Texans by 5 points: 2%Houston Texans by 4 points: 3%Houston Texans by 3 points: 8%Houston Texans by 2 points: 2%Houston Texans by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 1 point: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 2 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 3 points: 7%Kansas City Chiefs by 4 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 5 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 6 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 7 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 8 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 9 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 10 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 11 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 12 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 13 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 14 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 15 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 16 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 17 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 18 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 19 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 20 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 21 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 22 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 23 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 24 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 25 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 26 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 27 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 28 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 29 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 30 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 31 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 32 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 33 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 34 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 35 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 36 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 37 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 38 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 39 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 40 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 41 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 42 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 43 points: <1%
← HOU wins byKC wins by →
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 3 or more53%
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 7 or more37%
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 10 or more29%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

39.2 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 32.569%
Total over 39.547%
Total over 46.528%
Total from 33 to 4641%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
HOUC.J. Stroud · last 3 games: 69% completions, 224 yds/game, 2 TD, 2 INTstarted
KCPatrick Mahomes · last 3 games: 65% completions, 296 yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·KC
Nov 30, 2025 at IND
last game
Nov 27, 2025 at DAL
6 days
days of rest
9 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
HOU·KC
+0.47
rating (0 = average)
+0.53
21.9
points / game
25.4
16.5
points allowed / game
19.3
7−5
season record
6−6
4−2
home record
5−1
3−3
away record
1−5
W4
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
6−4
327
total yards / game
375
5.1
yards / play
5.7
219
passing yards / game
256
108
rushing yards / game
118
19.3
first downs / game
23.0
0.8
turnovers / game
0.7

Rating Trend

HOU · KC · 39 days
Houston TexansKansas City Chiefs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · KC 3−0
Jan 18, 2025at KCKC 23 − 14post
Dec 21, 2024at KCKC 27 − 19
Dec 18, 2022at HOUKC 30 − 24

HOU · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Nov 30, 2025at IND20 − 16W
Nov 20, 2025vs BUF23 − 19W
Nov 16, 2025at TEN16 − 13W
Nov 9, 2025vs JAX36 − 29W
Nov 2, 2025vs DEN15 − 18L
Oct 26, 2025vs SF26 − 15W
Oct 20, 2025at SEA19 − 27L
Oct 5, 2025at BAL44 − 10W
Sep 28, 2025vs TEN26 − 0W
Sep 21, 2025at JAX10 − 17L

KC · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Nov 27, 2025at DAL28 − 31L
Nov 23, 2025vs IND23 − 20W
Nov 16, 2025at DEN19 − 22L
Nov 2, 2025at BUF21 − 28L
Oct 27, 2025vs WSH28 − 7W
Oct 19, 2025vs LV31 − 0W
Oct 12, 2025vs DET30 − 17W
Oct 6, 2025at JAX28 − 31L
Sep 28, 2025vs BAL37 − 20W
Sep 21, 2025at NYG22 − 9W