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Texans at Colts

NFL · Sunday, Nov 30 · 12:00 PM CT · Lucas Oil Stadium · Final HOU 20 – IND 16
← NFL / Nov 30, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU373720
IND067316
Team box
HOU·IND
364
total yards
281
256
passing yards
195
108
rushing yards
86
24
first downs
17
6-13
third downs
3-10
1
turnovers
0
34:58
time of possession
25:02
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
C.J. StroudHOU22/3527601
Daniel JonesIND14/2720120
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Woody MarksHOU19640
Jonathan TaylorIND21850
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Nico CollinsHOU5980
Alec PierceIND4781

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +7
HOU +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 3 · HOU 7lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 41%, IND 59% · Updated Nov 30, 2025

Expected margin
IND by 3.9
Expected score
IND 25.2 – 21.3 HOU
Expected total
46.5
TexansThe matchupColts
+144Our fair odds−144
21.3Expected points25.2
+0.38Power rating+0.45
22.1Points / game31.0
16.5Allowed / game20.8
323Total yards / game384
5.1Yards / play6.3
216Passing yards / game245
6−5Season record8−3
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · IND chance
Our model fair40.9%59.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Texans+14441%————
INDIndianapolis Colts−14459%————
SpreadIND by 3.9
HOUHouston Texans+3.9our margin————
INDIndianapolis Colts−3.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 46.5
Over46.5our total————
Under46.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indianapolis Colts by 3.9 expected
Houston Texans by 43 points: <1%Houston Texans by 42 points: <1%Houston Texans by 41 points: <1%Houston Texans by 40 points: <1%Houston Texans by 39 points: <1%Houston Texans by 38 points: <1%Houston Texans by 37 points: <1%Houston Texans by 36 points: <1%Houston Texans by 35 points: <1%Houston Texans by 34 points: <1%Houston Texans by 33 points: <1%Houston Texans by 32 points: <1%Houston Texans by 31 points: <1%Houston Texans by 30 points: <1%Houston Texans by 29 points: <1%Houston Texans by 28 points: <1%Houston Texans by 27 points: <1%Houston Texans by 26 points: <1%Houston Texans by 25 points: <1%Houston Texans by 24 points: 1%Houston Texans by 23 points: 1%Houston Texans by 22 points: <1%Houston Texans by 21 points: 1%Houston Texans by 20 points: 1%Houston Texans by 19 points: 1%Houston Texans by 18 points: 1%Houston Texans by 17 points: 1%Houston Texans by 16 points: 1%Houston Texans by 15 points: <1%Houston Texans by 14 points: 2%Houston Texans by 13 points: <1%Houston Texans by 12 points: 1%Houston Texans by 11 points: 1%Houston Texans by 10 points: 2%Houston Texans by 9 points: 1%Houston Texans by 8 points: 2%Houston Texans by 7 points: 4%Houston Texans by 6 points: 3%Houston Texans by 5 points: 2%Houston Texans by 4 points: 3%Houston Texans by 3 points: 8%Houston Texans by 2 points: 2%Houston Texans by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 1 point: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 2 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 3 points: 7%Indianapolis Colts by 4 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 5 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 6 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 7 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 8 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 9 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 10 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 11 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 12 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 13 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 14 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 15 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 16 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 17 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 18 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 19 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 20 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 21 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 22 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 23 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 24 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 25 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 26 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 27 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 28 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 29 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 30 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 31 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 32 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 33 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 34 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 35 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 36 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 37 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 38 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 39 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 40 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 41 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 42 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 43 points: <1%
← HOU wins byIND wins by →
Indianapolis Colts wins by 3 or more54%
Indianapolis Colts wins by 7 or more38%
Indianapolis Colts wins by 10 or more30%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

46.5 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 39.567%
Total over 46.547%
Total over 53.530%
Total from 40 to 5338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
HOUC.J. Stroud · last 3 games: 60% completions, 209 yds/game, 3 TD, 2 INTstarted
INDDaniel Jones · last 3 games: 64% completions, 259 yds/game, 4 TD, 4 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·IND
Nov 20, 2025 vs BUF
last game
Nov 23, 2025 at KC
9 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
HOU·IND
+0.38
rating (0 = average)
+0.45
22.1
points / game
31.0
16.5
points allowed / game
20.8
6−5
season record
8−3
4−2
home record
6−0
2−3
away record
2−3
W3
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
7−3
323
total yards / game
384
5.1
yards / play
6.3
216
passing yards / game
245
108
rushing yards / game
139
18.9
first downs / game
22.5
0.8
turnovers / game
1.1

Rating Trend

HOU · IND · 36 days
Houston TexansIndianapolis Colts
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · IND 4−4
Oct 27, 2024at HOUHOU 23 − 20
Sep 8, 2024at INDHOU 29 − 27
Jan 6, 2024at INDHOU 23 − 19
Sep 17, 2023at HOUIND 31 − 20
Jan 8, 2023at INDHOU 32 − 31
Sep 11, 2022at HOUIND 20 − 20
Dec 5, 2021at HOUIND 31 − 0
Oct 17, 2021at INDIND 31 − 3

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Nov 20, 2025vs BUF23 − 19W
Nov 16, 2025at TEN16 − 13W
Nov 9, 2025vs JAX36 − 29W
Nov 2, 2025vs DEN15 − 18L
Oct 26, 2025vs SF26 − 15W
Oct 20, 2025at SEA19 − 27L
Oct 5, 2025at BAL44 − 10W
Sep 28, 2025vs TEN26 − 0W
Sep 21, 2025at JAX10 − 17L
Sep 15, 2025vs TB19 − 20L

IND · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Nov 23, 2025at KC20 − 23L
Nov 9, 2025vs ATL31 − 25W
Nov 2, 2025at PIT20 − 27L
Oct 26, 2025vs TEN38 − 14W
Oct 19, 2025at LAC38 − 24W
Oct 12, 2025vs ARI31 − 27W
Oct 5, 2025vs LV40 − 6W
Sep 28, 2025at LAR20 − 27L
Sep 21, 2025at TEN41 − 20W
Sep 14, 2025vs DEN29 − 28W