bayesRatings

Packers at Bears

NFL · Saturday, Jan 10 · 7:00 PM CT · Soldier Field · Final GB 27 – CHI 31
← NFL / Jan 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GB7140627
CHI3032531
Team box
GB·CHI
421
total yards
445
322
passing yards
352
99
rushing yards
93
21
first downs
24
6-15
third downs
10-19
0
turnovers
2
27:19
time of possession
32:41
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jordan LoveGB24/4632340
Caleb WilliamsCHI24/4836122
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Josh JacobsGB19550
D'Andre SwiftCHI13541
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Romeo DoubsGB81241
Colston LovelandCHI81370

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +18
GB +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHI 4 · GB 18lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GB 47%, CHI 53% · Updated Jan 10

Expected margin
CHI by 0.8
Expected score
CHI 23.7 – 22.9 GB
Expected total
46.6
PackersThe matchupBears
+114Our fair odds−114
22.9Expected points23.7
+0.32Power rating+0.21
23.0Points / game25.9
21.2Allowed / game24.4
333Total yards / game370
5.6Yards / play5.7
213Passing yards / game225
9−7−1Season record11−6
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GB chance · CHI chance
Our model fair46.8%53.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GBGreen Bay Packers+11447%————
CHIChicago Bears−11453%————
SpreadCHI by 0.8
GBGreen Bay Packers+0.8our margin————
CHIChicago Bears−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 46.6
Over46.6our total————
Under46.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Bears by 0.8 expected
Green Bay Packers by 40 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 39 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 38 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 37 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 36 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 35 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 34 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 33 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 32 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 31 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 30 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 29 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 28 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 27 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 26 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 25 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 24 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 23 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 22 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 21 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 20 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 19 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 18 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 17 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 16 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 15 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 14 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 13 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 12 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 11 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 10 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 9 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 8 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 7 points: 5%Green Bay Packers by 6 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 5 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 4 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 3 points: 9%Green Bay Packers by 2 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Chicago Bears by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bears by 2 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 3 points: 7%Chicago Bears by 4 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 5 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 6 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 7 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 8 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 9 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 10 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 11 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 12 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 13 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 14 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 15 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 17 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 19 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 23 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 24 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 25 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 28 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 31 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 40 points: <1%
← GB wins byCHI wins by →
Chicago Bears wins by 3 or more45%
Chicago Bears wins by 7 or more29%
Chicago Bears wins by 10 or more22%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

46.6 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 39.568%
Total over 46.548%
Total over 53.530%
Total from 40 to 5338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
GBJordan Love · last 3 games: 63% completions, 196 yds/game, 4 TD, 3 INTstarted
CHICaleb Williams · last 3 games: 59% completions, 264 yds/game, 6 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GB·CHI
Jan 4 at MIN
last game
Jan 4 vs DET
5 days
days of rest
5 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 17+ games
GB·CHI
+0.32
rating (0 = average)
+0.21
23.0
points / game
25.9
21.2
points allowed / game
24.4
9−7−1
season record
11−6
5−3
home record
6−2
4−4−1
away record
5−4
L4
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
7−3
333
total yards / game
370
5.6
yards / play
5.7
213
passing yards / game
225
120
rushing yards / game
144
19.6
first downs / game
21.1
0.8
turnovers / game
0.6

Rating Trend

GB · CHI · 54 days
Green Bay PackersChicago Bears
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHI 2−8
Dec 20, 2025at CHICHI 22 − 16
Dec 7, 2025at GBGB 28 − 21
Jan 5, 2025at GBCHI 24 − 22
Nov 17, 2024at CHIGB 20 − 19
Jan 7, 2024at GBGB 17 − 9
Sep 10, 2023at CHIGB 38 − 20
Dec 4, 2022at CHIGB 28 − 19
Sep 18, 2022at GBGB 27 − 10
Dec 12, 2021at GBGB 45 − 30
Oct 17, 2021at CHIGB 24 − 14

GB · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Jan 4at MIN3 − 16L
Dec 27, 2025vs BAL24 − 41L
Dec 20, 2025at CHI16 − 22L
Dec 14, 2025at DEN26 − 34L
Dec 7, 2025vs CHI28 − 21W
Nov 27, 2025at DET31 − 24W
Nov 23, 2025vs MIN23 − 6W
Nov 16, 2025at NYG27 − 20W
Nov 10, 2025vs PHI7 − 10L
Nov 2, 2025vs CAR13 − 16L

CHI · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Jan 4vs DET16 − 19L
Dec 28, 2025at SF38 − 42L
Dec 20, 2025vs GB22 − 16W
Dec 14, 2025vs CLE31 − 3W
Dec 7, 2025at GB21 − 28L
Nov 28, 2025at PHI24 − 15W
Nov 23, 2025vs PIT31 − 28W
Nov 16, 2025at MIN19 − 17W
Nov 9, 2025vs NYG24 − 20W
Nov 2, 2025at CIN47 − 42W