bayesRatings

Packers at Vikings

NFL · Sunday, Jan 4 · 12:00 PM CT · U.S. Bank Stadium · Final GB 3 – MIN 16
← NFL / Jan 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GB00033
MIN3100316
Team box
GB·MIN
121
total yards
363
-7
passing yards
226
128
rushing yards
137
12
first downs
23
3-12
third downs
2-10
0
turnovers
1
26:30
time of possession
33:30
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Clayton TuneGB6/113400
J.J. McCarthyMIN14/2318200
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Chris BrooksGB13610
Jordan MasonMIN14940
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jakobie Keeney-JamesGB2150
Justin JeffersonMIN81010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +16
GB +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 16 · GB 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GB 49%, MIN 51% · Updated Jan 4

Expected margin
MIN by 0.4
Expected score
MIN 20.6 – 20.2 GB
Expected total
40.7
PackersThe matchupVikings
+104Our fair odds−104
20.2Expected points20.6
+0.42Power rating+0.24
24.2Points / game20.5
21.5Allowed / game20.6
346Total yards / game270
5.8Yards / play4.8
226Passing yards / game163
9−6−1Season record8−8
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GB chance · MIN chance
Our model fair49.1%50.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GBGreen Bay Packers+10449%————
MINMinnesota Vikings−10451%————
SpreadMIN by 0.4
GBGreen Bay Packers+0.4our margin————
MINMinnesota Vikings−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 40.7
Over40.7our total————
Under40.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Vikings by 0.4 expected
Green Bay Packers by 40 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 39 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 38 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 37 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 36 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 35 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 34 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 33 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 32 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 31 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 30 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 29 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 28 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 27 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 26 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 25 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 24 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 23 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 22 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 21 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 20 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 19 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 18 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 17 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 16 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 15 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 14 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 13 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 12 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 11 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 10 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 9 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 8 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 7 points: 5%Green Bay Packers by 6 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 5 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 4 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 3 points: 9%Green Bay Packers by 2 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 2 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 3 points: 7%Minnesota Vikings by 4 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 5 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 6 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 7 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 9 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 10 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 11 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 12 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 13 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 14 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 15 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 16 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 19 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 26 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 40 points: <1%
← GB wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Vikings wins by 3 or more44%
Minnesota Vikings wins by 7 or more28%
Minnesota Vikings wins by 10 or more21%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

40.7 expected
7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 1%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 33.569%
Total over 40.549%
Total over 47.529%
Total from 34 to 4740%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
GBClayton Tune · last 3 games: 54% completions, 25 yds/game, 0 TD, 3 INTstarted
MINJ.J. McCarthy · last 3 games: 66% completions, 174 yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GB·MIN
Dec 27, 2025 vs BAL
last game
Dec 25, 2025 vs DET
7 days
days of rest
9 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 16+ games
GB·MIN
+0.42
rating (0 = average)
+0.24
24.2
points / game
20.5
21.5
points allowed / game
20.6
9−6−1
season record
8−8
5−3
home record
3−4
4−3−1
away record
5−4
L3
streak
W4
5−5
last 10
5−5
346
total yards / game
270
5.8
yards / play
4.8
226
passing yards / game
163
119
rushing yards / game
106
20.1
first downs / game
16.9
0.8
turnovers / game
1.8

Rating Trend

GB · MIN · 53 days
Green Bay PackersMinnesota Vikings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · MIN 5−4
Nov 23, 2025at GBGB 23 − 6
Dec 29, 2024at MINMIN 27 − 25
Sep 29, 2024at GBMIN 31 − 29
Dec 31, 2023at MINGB 33 − 10
Oct 29, 2023at GBMIN 24 − 10
Jan 1, 2023at GBGB 41 − 17
Sep 11, 2022at MINMIN 23 − 7
Jan 2, 2022at GBGB 37 − 10
Nov 21, 2021at MINMIN 34 − 31

GB · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Dec 27, 2025vs BAL24 − 41L
Dec 20, 2025at CHI16 − 22L
Dec 14, 2025at DEN26 − 34L
Dec 7, 2025vs CHI28 − 21W
Nov 27, 2025at DET31 − 24W
Nov 23, 2025vs MIN23 − 6W
Nov 16, 2025at NYG27 − 20W
Nov 10, 2025vs PHI7 − 10L
Nov 2, 2025vs CAR13 − 16L
Oct 26, 2025at PIT35 − 25W

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W4
Dec 25, 2025vs DET23 − 10W
Dec 21, 2025at NYG16 − 13W
Dec 14, 2025at DAL34 − 26W
Dec 7, 2025vs WSH31 − 0W
Nov 30, 2025at SEA0 − 26L
Nov 23, 2025at GB6 − 23L
Nov 16, 2025vs CHI17 − 19L
Nov 9, 2025vs BAL19 − 27L
Nov 2, 2025at DET27 − 24W
Oct 23, 2025at LAC10 − 37L