bayesRatings

Packers at Bears

NFL · Saturday, Dec 20 · 7:20 PM CT · Soldier Field · Final GB 16 – CHI 22
← NFL / Dec 20, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
GB0673016
CHI00313622
Team box
GB·CHI
384
total yards
400
192
passing yards
250
192
rushing yards
150
24
first downs
20
6-12
third downs
2-11
1
turnovers
0
38:57
time of possession
26:13
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jordan LoveGB8/137700
Caleb WilliamsCHI19/3425020
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Emanuel WilsonGB14820
D'Andre SwiftCHI13580
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Romeo DoubsGB5841
DJ MooreCHI5971

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +10
GB +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: CHI 6 · GB 10lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GB 54%, CHI 46% · Updated Dec 20, 2025

Expected margin
GB by 1.3
Expected score
GB 23.8 – 22.5 CHI
Expected total
46.2
PackersThe matchupBears
−117Our fair odds+117
23.8Expected points22.5
+0.68Power rating+0.24
24.9Points / game26.1
20.1Allowed / game24.1
342Total yards / game369
5.7Yards / play5.6
225Passing yards / game217
9−4−1Season record10−4
7−3Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GB chance · CHI chance
Our model fair53.9%46.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GBGreen Bay Packers−11754%————
CHIChicago Bears+11746%————
SpreadGB by 1.3
GBGreen Bay Packers−1.3our margin————
CHIChicago Bears+1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 46.2
Over46.2our total————
Under46.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Green Bay Packers by 1.3 expected
Green Bay Packers by 37 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 36 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 35 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 34 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 33 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 32 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 31 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 30 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 29 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 28 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 27 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 26 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 25 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 24 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 23 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 22 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 21 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 20 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 19 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 18 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 17 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 16 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 15 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 14 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 13 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 12 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 11 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 10 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 9 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 8 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 7 points: 5%Green Bay Packers by 6 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 5 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 4 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 3 points: 9%Green Bay Packers by 2 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Chicago Bears by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bears by 2 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 3 points: 7%Chicago Bears by 4 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 5 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 6 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 7 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 8 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 9 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 10 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 11 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 12 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 13 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 14 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 15 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 17 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 19 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 22 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 23 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 24 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 25 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 28 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 37 points: <1%
← GB wins byCHI wins by →
Green Bay Packers wins by 3 or more50%
Green Bay Packers wins by 7 or more31%
Green Bay Packers wins by 10 or more24%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

46.2 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 39.567%
Total over 46.547%
Total over 53.529%
Total from 40 to 5338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
GBJordan Love · last 3 games: 62% completions, 248 yds/game, 8 TD, 3 INTstarted
CHICaleb Williams · last 3 games: 54% completions, 194 yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GB·CHI
Dec 14, 2025 at DEN
last game
Dec 14, 2025 vs CLE
5 days
days of rest
5 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
GB·CHI
+0.68
rating (0 = average)
+0.24
24.9
points / game
26.1
20.1
points allowed / game
24.1
9−4−1
season record
10−4
5−2
home record
5−1
4−2−1
away record
5−3
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
8−2
342
total yards / game
369
5.7
yards / play
5.6
225
passing yards / game
217
117
rushing yards / game
152
20.0
first downs / game
21.1
0.7
turnovers / game
0.7

Rating Trend

GB · CHI · 45 days
Green Bay PackersChicago Bears
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · CHI 1−8
Dec 7, 2025at GBGB 28 − 21
Jan 5, 2025at GBCHI 24 − 22
Nov 17, 2024at CHIGB 20 − 19
Jan 7, 2024at GBGB 17 − 9
Sep 10, 2023at CHIGB 38 − 20
Dec 4, 2022at CHIGB 28 − 19
Sep 18, 2022at GBGB 27 − 10
Dec 12, 2021at GBGB 45 − 30
Oct 17, 2021at CHIGB 24 − 14

GB · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Dec 14, 2025at DEN26 − 34L
Dec 7, 2025vs CHI28 − 21W
Nov 27, 2025at DET31 − 24W
Nov 23, 2025vs MIN23 − 6W
Nov 16, 2025at NYG27 − 20W
Nov 10, 2025vs PHI7 − 10L
Nov 2, 2025vs CAR13 − 16L
Oct 26, 2025at PIT35 − 25W
Oct 19, 2025at ARI27 − 23W
Oct 12, 2025vs CIN27 − 18W

CHI · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Dec 14, 2025vs CLE31 − 3W
Dec 7, 2025at GB21 − 28L
Nov 28, 2025at PHI24 − 15W
Nov 23, 2025vs PIT31 − 28W
Nov 16, 2025at MIN19 − 17W
Nov 9, 2025vs NYG24 − 20W
Nov 2, 2025at CIN47 − 42W
Oct 26, 2025at BAL16 − 30L
Oct 19, 2025vs NO26 − 14W
Oct 13, 2025at WSH25 − 24W