bayesRatings

Packers at Broncos

NFL · Sunday, Dec 14 · 3:25 PM CT · Empower Field at Mile High · Final GB 26 – DEN 34
← NFL / Dec 14, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GB3137326
DEN01413734
Team box
GB·DEN
362
total yards
391
247
passing yards
302
115
rushing yards
89
19
first downs
21
6-13
third downs
4-11
2
turnovers
1
29:28
time of possession
30:32
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jordan LoveGB24/4027612
Bo NixDEN23/3430240
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Josh JacobsGB12731
RJ HarveyDEN19651
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jayden ReedGB5550
Courtland SuttonDEN71131

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +9
GB +9
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 8 · GB 9lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GB 47%, DEN 53% · Updated Dec 14, 2025

Expected margin
DEN by 1.5
Expected score
DEN 20.6 – 19.1 GB
Expected total
39.8
PackersThe matchupBroncos
+113Our fair odds−113
19.1Expected points20.6
+0.72Power rating+0.59
24.8Points / game23.7
19.0Allowed / game18.1
340Total yards / game342
5.7Yards / play5.3
223Passing yards / game220
9−3−1Season record11−2
7−2−1Last 1010−0

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GB chance · DEN chance
Our model fair46.9%53.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GBGreen Bay Packers+11347%————
DENDenver Broncos−11353%————
SpreadDEN by 1.5
GBGreen Bay Packers+1.5our margin————
DENDenver Broncos−1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 39.8
Over39.8our total————
Under39.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Broncos by 1.5 expected
Green Bay Packers by 41 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 40 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 39 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 38 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 37 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 36 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 35 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 34 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 33 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 32 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 31 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 30 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 29 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 28 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 27 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 26 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 25 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 24 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 23 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 22 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 21 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 20 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 19 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 18 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 17 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 16 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 15 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 14 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 13 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 12 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 11 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 10 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 9 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 8 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 7 points: 4%Green Bay Packers by 6 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 5 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 4 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 3 points: 8%Green Bay Packers by 2 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Denver Broncos by 1 point: 2%Denver Broncos by 2 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 3 points: 7%Denver Broncos by 4 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 5 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 6 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 7 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 8 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 9 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 10 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 11 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 12 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 13 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 14 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 15 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 16 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 17 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 18 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 19 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 20 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 21 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 22 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 23 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 24 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 25 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 26 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 27 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 28 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 29 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 30 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 31 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 32 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 33 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 34 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 35 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 36 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 37 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 38 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 39 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 40 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 41 points: <1%
← GB wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Broncos wins by 3 or more47%
Denver Broncos wins by 7 or more31%
Denver Broncos wins by 10 or more23%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

39.8 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 1%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 32.570%
Total over 39.549%
Total over 46.529%
Total from 33 to 4641%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
GBJordan Love · last 3 games: 64% completions, 202 yds/game, 7 TD, 1 INTstarted
DENBo Nix · last 3 games: 70% completions, 276 yds/game, 1 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GB·DEN
Dec 7, 2025 vs CHI
last game
Dec 7, 2025 at LV
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
GB·DEN
+0.72
rating (0 = average)
+0.59
24.8
points / game
23.7
19.0
points allowed / game
18.1
9−3−1
season record
11−2
5−2
home record
6−0
4−1−1
away record
5−2
W4
streak
W10
7−2−1
last 10
10−0
340
total yards / game
342
5.7
yards / play
5.3
223
passing yards / game
220
117
rushing yards / game
122
20.1
first downs / game
19.8
0.6
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

GB · DEN · 42 days
Green Bay PackersDenver Broncos
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · DEN 1−0
Oct 22, 2023at DENDEN 19 − 17

GB · Last 10

7−2−1 · streak W4
Dec 7, 2025vs CHI28 − 21W
Nov 27, 2025at DET31 − 24W
Nov 23, 2025vs MIN23 − 6W
Nov 16, 2025at NYG27 − 20W
Nov 10, 2025vs PHI7 − 10L
Nov 2, 2025vs CAR13 − 16L
Oct 26, 2025at PIT35 − 25W
Oct 19, 2025at ARI27 − 23W
Oct 12, 2025vs CIN27 − 18W
Sep 28, 2025at DAL40 − 40T

DEN · Last 10

10−0 · streak W10
Dec 7, 2025at LV24 − 17W
Nov 30, 2025at WSH27 − 26W
Nov 16, 2025vs KC22 − 19W
Nov 6, 2025vs LV10 − 7W
Nov 2, 2025at HOU18 − 15W
Oct 26, 2025vs DAL44 − 24W
Oct 19, 2025vs NYG33 − 32W
Oct 12, 2025at NYJ13 − 11W
Oct 5, 2025at PHI21 − 17W
Sep 29, 2025vs CIN28 − 3W