bayesRatings

Broncos at Raiders

NFL · Sunday, Dec 7 · 3:05 PM CT · Allegiant Stadium · Final DEN 24 – LV 17
← NFL / Dec 7, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN777324
LV7001017
Team box
DEN·LV
356
total yards
229
204
passing yards
189
152
rushing yards
40
27
first downs
16
7-12
third downs
3-9
0
turnovers
0
39:03
time of possession
20:57
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Bo NixDEN31/3821200
Geno SmithLV13/2111610
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
RJ HarveyDEN17751
Ashton JeantyLV10300
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Courtland SuttonDEN6620
Jack BechLV6500

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LV +17
DEN +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LV 0 · DEN 17lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 81%, LV 19% · Updated Dec 7, 2025

Expected margin
DEN by 10.8
Expected score
DEN 24.8 – 14.0 LV
Expected total
38.7
BroncosThe matchupRaiders
−429Our fair odds+429
24.8Expected points14.0
+0.62Power rating−1.24
23.7Points / game14.9
18.2Allowed / game25.7
341Total yards / game260
5.4Yards / play4.5
222Passing yards / game184
10−2Season record2−10
9−1Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · LV chance
Our model fair81.1%18.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Broncos−42981%————
LVLas Vegas Raiders+42919%————
SpreadDEN by 10.8
DENDenver Broncos−10.8our margin————
LVLas Vegas Raiders+10.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 38.7
Over38.7our total————
Under38.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Broncos by 10.8 expected
Denver Broncos by 40 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 39 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 38 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 37 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 36 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 35 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 34 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 33 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 32 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 31 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 30 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 29 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 28 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 27 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 26 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 25 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 24 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 23 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 22 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 21 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 20 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 19 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 18 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 17 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 16 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 15 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 14 points: 5%Denver Broncos by 13 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 12 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 11 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 10 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 9 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 8 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 7 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 6 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 5 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 4 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 3 points: 6%Denver Broncos by 2 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 1 point: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 2 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 3 points: 4%Las Vegas Raiders by 4 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 5 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 6 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 7 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 8 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 9 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 10 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 11 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 12 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 13 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 14 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 15 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 16 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 17 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 18 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 19 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 20 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 21 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 22 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 23 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 24 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 25 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 26 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 27 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 28 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 29 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 30 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 31 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 32 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 33 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 34 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 35 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 36 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 37 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 38 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 39 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 40 points: <1%
← DEN wins byLV wins by →
Denver Broncos wins by 3 or more73%
Denver Broncos wins by 7 or more60%
Denver Broncos wins by 10 or more53%
Within 3 points either way17%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

38.7 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 31.570%
Total over 38.549%
Total over 45.529%
Total from 32 to 4541%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
DENBo Nix · last 3 games: 63% completions, 255 yds/game, 2 TD, 3 INTstarted
LVGeno Smith · last 3 games: 69% completions, 229 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·LV
Nov 30, 2025 at WSH
last game
Nov 30, 2025 at LAC
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
DEN·LV
+0.62
rating (0 = average)
−1.24
23.7
points / game
14.9
18.2
points allowed / game
25.7
10−2
season record
2−10
6−0
home record
1−5
4−2
away record
1−5
W9
streak
L6
9−1
last 10
1−9
341
total yards / game
260
5.4
yards / play
4.5
222
passing yards / game
184
119
rushing yards / game
75
19.2
first downs / game
16.2
1.1
turnovers / game
1.4

Rating Trend

DEN · LV · 39 days
Denver BroncosLas Vegas Raiders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · LV 6−3
Nov 6, 2025at DENDEN 10 − 7
Nov 24, 2024at LVDEN 29 − 19
Oct 6, 2024at DENDEN 34 − 18
Jan 7, 2024at LVLV 27 − 14
Sep 10, 2023at DENLV 17 − 16
Nov 20, 2022at DENLV 22 − 16
Oct 2, 2022at LVLV 32 − 23
Dec 26, 2021at LVLV 17 − 13
Oct 17, 2021at DENLV 34 − 24

DEN · Last 10

9−1 · streak W9
Nov 30, 2025at WSH27 − 26W
Nov 16, 2025vs KC22 − 19W
Nov 6, 2025vs LV10 − 7W
Nov 2, 2025at HOU18 − 15W
Oct 26, 2025vs DAL44 − 24W
Oct 19, 2025vs NYG33 − 32W
Oct 12, 2025at NYJ13 − 11W
Oct 5, 2025at PHI21 − 17W
Sep 29, 2025vs CIN28 − 3W
Sep 21, 2025at LAC20 − 23L

LV · Last 10

1−9 · streak L6
Nov 30, 2025at LAC14 − 31L
Nov 23, 2025vs CLE10 − 24L
Nov 17, 2025vs DAL16 − 33L
Nov 6, 2025at DEN7 − 10L
Nov 2, 2025vs JAX29 − 30L
Oct 19, 2025at KC0 − 31L
Oct 12, 2025vs TEN20 − 10W
Oct 5, 2025at IND6 − 40L
Sep 28, 2025vs CHI24 − 25L
Sep 21, 2025at WSH24 − 41L