bayesRatings

Vikings at Giants

NFL · Sunday, Dec 21 · 12:00 PM CT · MetLife Stadium · Final MIN 16 – NYG 13
← NFL / Dec 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN3100316
NYG0100313
Team box
MIN·NYG
240
total yards
141
126
passing yards
13
114
rushing yards
128
17
first downs
12
7-12
third downs
2-10
2
turnovers
1
31:01
time of possession
28:59
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
J.J. McCarthyMIN9/1410801
Jaxson DartNYG7/133301
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Aaron Jones Sr.MIN21850
Tyrone Tracy Jr.NYG16710
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Justin JeffersonMIN6850
Wan'Dale RobinsonNYG3190

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYG +10
MIN +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NYG 0 · MIN 10lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 68%, NYG 32% · Updated Dec 21, 2025

Expected margin
MIN by 5.0
Expected score
MIN 24.9 – 19.9 NYG
Expected total
44.7
VikingsThe matchupGiants
−217Our fair odds+217
24.9Expected points19.9
+0.13Power rating−0.97
20.6Points / game21.4
21.9Allowed / game28.3
279Total yards / game343
4.9Yards / play5.3
177Passing yards / game218
6−8Season record2−12
4−6Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · NYG chance
Our model fair68.5%31.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Vikings−21768%————
NYGNew York Giants+21732%————
SpreadMIN by 5.0
MINMinnesota Vikings−5our margin————
NYGNew York Giants+5our margin————
Totalwe expect 44.7
Over44.7our total————
Under44.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Vikings by 5.0 expected
Minnesota Vikings by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 34 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 28 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 26 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 24 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 23 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 21 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 17 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 15 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 14 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 13 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 12 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 11 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 9 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 8 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 7 points: 5%Minnesota Vikings by 6 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 3 points: 9%Minnesota Vikings by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New York Giants by 1 point: 2%New York Giants by 2 points: 3%New York Giants by 3 points: 6%New York Giants by 4 points: 2%New York Giants by 5 points: 1%New York Giants by 6 points: 3%New York Giants by 7 points: 3%New York Giants by 8 points: 2%New York Giants by 9 points: 1%New York Giants by 10 points: 1%New York Giants by 11 points: <1%New York Giants by 12 points: 1%New York Giants by 13 points: 1%New York Giants by 14 points: 1%New York Giants by 15 points: 1%New York Giants by 16 points: <1%New York Giants by 17 points: 1%New York Giants by 18 points: 1%New York Giants by 19 points: <1%New York Giants by 20 points: 1%New York Giants by 21 points: 1%New York Giants by 22 points: <1%New York Giants by 23 points: <1%New York Giants by 24 points: 1%New York Giants by 25 points: <1%New York Giants by 26 points: <1%New York Giants by 27 points: <1%New York Giants by 28 points: <1%New York Giants by 29 points: <1%New York Giants by 30 points: <1%New York Giants by 31 points: <1%New York Giants by 32 points: <1%New York Giants by 33 points: <1%New York Giants by 34 points: <1%New York Giants by 35 points: <1%New York Giants by 36 points: <1%New York Giants by 37 points: <1%New York Giants by 38 points: <1%New York Giants by 39 points: <1%New York Giants by 40 points: <1%
← MIN wins byNYG wins by →
Minnesota Vikings wins by 3 or more60%
Minnesota Vikings wins by 7 or more42%
Minnesota Vikings wins by 10 or more33%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

44.7 expected
11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 37.568%
Total over 44.548%
Total over 51.529%
Total from 38 to 5139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
MINJ.J. McCarthy · last 3 games: 65% completions, 167 yds/game, 5 TD, 3 INTstarted
NYGJaxson Dart · last 3 games: 63% completions, 209 yds/game, 3 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·NYG
Dec 14, 2025 at DAL
last game
Dec 14, 2025 vs WSH
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
MIN·NYG
+0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.97
20.6
points / game
21.4
21.9
points allowed / game
28.3
6−8
season record
2−12
2−4
home record
2−4
4−4
away record
0−8
W2
streak
L8
4−6
last 10
1−9
279
total yards / game
343
4.9
yards / play
5.3
177
passing yards / game
218
102
rushing yards / game
125
17.3
first downs / game
20.6
1.9
turnovers / game
1.1

Rating Trend

MIN · NYG · 46 days
Minnesota VikingsNew York Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · NYG 1−2
Sep 8, 2024at NYGMIN 28 − 6
Jan 15, 2023at MINNYG 31 − 24post
Dec 24, 2022at MINMIN 27 − 24

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Dec 14, 2025at DAL34 − 26W
Dec 7, 2025vs WSH31 − 0W
Nov 30, 2025at SEA0 − 26L
Nov 23, 2025at GB6 − 23L
Nov 16, 2025vs CHI17 − 19L
Nov 9, 2025vs BAL19 − 27L
Nov 2, 2025at DET27 − 24W
Oct 23, 2025at LAC10 − 37L
Oct 19, 2025vs PHI22 − 28L
Oct 5, 2025at CLE21 − 17W

NYG · Last 10

1−9 · streak L8
Dec 14, 2025vs WSH21 − 29L
Dec 1, 2025at NE15 − 33L
Nov 23, 2025at DET27 − 34L
Nov 16, 2025vs GB20 − 27L
Nov 9, 2025at CHI20 − 24L
Nov 2, 2025vs SF24 − 34L
Oct 26, 2025at PHI20 − 38L
Oct 19, 2025at DEN32 − 33L
Oct 9, 2025vs PHI34 − 17W
Oct 5, 2025at NO14 − 26L