bayesRatings

Lions at Vikings

NFL · Thursday, Dec 25 · 3:30 PM CT · U.S. Bank Stadium · Final DET 10 – MIN 23
← NFL / Dec 25, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DET070310
MIN7061023
Team box
DET·MIN
231
total yards
161
163
passing yards
3
68
rushing yards
158
16
first downs
11
5-14
third downs
3-13
6
turnovers
0
32:30
time of possession
27:30
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jared GoffDET18/2919712
Max BrosmerMIN9/165100
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jahmyr GibbsDET17410
Jordan AddisonMIN1651
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET8680
Justin JeffersonMIN4300

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +13
DET +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 13 · DET 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 56%, MIN 44% · Updated Dec 25, 2025

Expected margin
DET by 4.7
Expected score
DET 27.1 – 22.3 MIN
Expected total
49.4
LionsThe matchupVikings
−125Our fair odds+125
27.1Expected points22.3
+0.62Power rating+0.15
30.1Points / game20.3
24.9Allowed / game21.3
379Total yards / game277
6.1Yards / play4.9
255Passing yards / game174
8−7Season record7−8
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · MIN chance
Our model fair55.5%44.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Lions−12556%————
MINMinnesota Vikings+12544%————
SpreadDET by 4.7
DETDetroit Lions−4.7our margin————
MINMinnesota Vikings+4.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 49.4
Over49.4our total————
Under49.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Lions by 4.7 expected
Detroit Lions by 40 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 39 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 38 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 37 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 36 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 35 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 34 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 33 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 32 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 31 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 30 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 29 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 28 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 27 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 26 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 25 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 24 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 23 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 22 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 21 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 20 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 19 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 18 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 17 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 16 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 15 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 14 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 13 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 12 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 11 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 10 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 9 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 8 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 7 points: 5%Detroit Lions by 6 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 5 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 4 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 3 points: 9%Detroit Lions by 2 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 2 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 3 points: 6%Minnesota Vikings by 4 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 5 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 8 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 9 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 10 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 11 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 12 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 13 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 14 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 15 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 16 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 17 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 19 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 22 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 23 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 25 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 26 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 28 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 40 points: <1%
← DET wins byMIN wins by →
Detroit Lions wins by 3 or more60%
Detroit Lions wins by 7 or more41%
Detroit Lions wins by 10 or more33%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

49.4 expected
15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 2%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 42.566%
Total over 49.547%
Total over 56.531%
Total from 43 to 5636%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
DETJared Goff · last 3 games: 65% completions, 337 yds/game, 7 TD, 0 INTstarted
MINMax Brosmer · last 3 games: 67% completions, 64 yds/game, 0 TD, 4 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·MIN
Dec 21, 2025 vs PIT
last game
Dec 21, 2025 at NYG
3 days
days of rest
3 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
DET·MIN
+0.62
rating (0 = average)
+0.15
30.1
points / game
20.3
24.9
points allowed / game
21.3
8−7
season record
7−8
5−3
home record
2−4
3−4
away record
5−4
L2
streak
W3
4−6
last 10
4−6
379
total yards / game
277
6.1
yards / play
4.9
255
passing yards / game
174
123
rushing yards / game
103
20.3
first downs / game
17.3
0.5
turnovers / game
1.9

Rating Trend

DET · MIN · 48 days
Detroit LionsMinnesota Vikings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · MIN 3−6
Nov 2, 2025at DETMIN 27 − 24
Jan 5, 2025at DETDET 31 − 9
Oct 20, 2024at MINDET 31 − 29
Jan 7, 2024at DETDET 30 − 20
Dec 24, 2023at MINDET 30 − 24
Dec 11, 2022at DETDET 34 − 23
Sep 25, 2022at MINMIN 28 − 24
Dec 5, 2021at DETDET 29 − 27
Oct 10, 2021at MINMIN 19 − 17

DET · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Dec 21, 2025vs PIT24 − 29L
Dec 14, 2025at LAR34 − 41L
Dec 4, 2025vs DAL44 − 30W
Nov 27, 2025vs GB24 − 31L
Nov 23, 2025vs NYG34 − 27W
Nov 16, 2025at PHI9 − 16L
Nov 9, 2025at WSH44 − 22W
Nov 2, 2025vs MIN24 − 27L
Oct 20, 2025vs TB24 − 9W
Oct 12, 2025at KC17 − 30L

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Dec 21, 2025at NYG16 − 13W
Dec 14, 2025at DAL34 − 26W
Dec 7, 2025vs WSH31 − 0W
Nov 30, 2025at SEA0 − 26L
Nov 23, 2025at GB6 − 23L
Nov 16, 2025vs CHI17 − 19L
Nov 9, 2025vs BAL19 − 27L
Nov 2, 2025at DET27 − 24W
Oct 23, 2025at LAC10 − 37L
Oct 19, 2025vs PHI22 − 28L