bayesRatings

Lions at Rams

NFL · Sunday, Dec 14 · 3:25 PM CT · SoFi Stadium · Final DET 34 – LAR 41
← NFL / Dec 14, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DET71701034
LAR71017741
Team box
DET·LAR
396
total yards
519
326
passing yards
360
70
rushing yards
159
21
first downs
30
5-14
third downs
2-9
0
turnovers
1
26:25
time of possession
33:35
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jared GoffDET25/4133830
Matthew StaffordLAR24/3836821
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jahmyr GibbsDET13380
Kyren WilliamsLAR15782
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET131642
Puka NacuaLAR91810

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAR +14
DET +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAR 14 · DET 10lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 39%, LAR 61% · Updated Dec 14, 2025

Expected margin
LAR by 2.7
Expected score
LAR 27.6 – 24.9 DET
Expected total
52.5
LionsThe matchupRams
+157Our fair odds−157
24.9Expected points27.6
+0.81Power rating+1.03
30.3Points / game29.2
23.4Allowed / game17.5
379Total yards / game373
6.2Yards / play6.1
243Passing yards / game249
8−5Season record10−3
6−4Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · LAR chance
Our model fair38.8%61.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Lions+15739%————
LARLos Angeles Rams−15761%————
SpreadLAR by 2.7
DETDetroit Lions+2.7our margin————
LARLos Angeles Rams−2.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 52.5
Over52.5our total————
Under52.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Rams by 2.7 expected
Detroit Lions by 42 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 41 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 40 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 39 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 38 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 37 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 36 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 35 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 34 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 33 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 32 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 31 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 30 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 29 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 28 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 27 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 26 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 25 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 24 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 23 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 22 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 21 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 20 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 19 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 18 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 17 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 16 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 15 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 14 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 13 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 12 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 11 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 10 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 9 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 8 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 7 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 6 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 5 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 4 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 3 points: 8%Detroit Lions by 2 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 2 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 3 points: 7%Los Angeles Rams by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 6 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 7 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 17 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 19 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 31 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 42 points: <1%
← DET wins byLAR wins by →
Los Angeles Rams wins by 3 or more51%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 7 or more35%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 10 or more26%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

52.5 expected
17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 45.566%
Total over 52.547%
Total over 59.532%
Total from 46 to 5934%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
DETJared Goff · last 3 games: 72% completions, 281 yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INTstarted
LARMatthew Stafford · last 3 games: 69% completions, 266 yds/game, 8 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·LAR
Dec 4, 2025 vs DAL
last game
Dec 7, 2025 at ARI
9 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
DET·LAR
+0.81
rating (0 = average)
+1.03
30.3
points / game
29.2
23.4
points allowed / game
17.5
8−5
season record
10−3
5−2
home record
5−1
3−3
away record
5−2
W1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
8−2
379
total yards / game
373
6.2
yards / play
6.1
243
passing yards / game
249
136
rushing yards / game
124
20.0
first downs / game
23.0
0.6
turnovers / game
0.8

Rating Trend

DET · LAR · 42 days
Detroit LionsLos Angeles Rams
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · LAR 1−2
Sep 8, 2024at DETDET 26 − 20
Jan 14, 2024at DETDET 24 − 23post
Oct 24, 2021at LARLAR 28 − 19

DET · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Dec 4, 2025vs DAL44 − 30W
Nov 27, 2025vs GB24 − 31L
Nov 23, 2025vs NYG34 − 27W
Nov 16, 2025at PHI9 − 16L
Nov 9, 2025at WSH44 − 22W
Nov 2, 2025vs MIN24 − 27L
Oct 20, 2025vs TB24 − 9W
Oct 12, 2025at KC17 − 30L
Oct 5, 2025at CIN37 − 24W
Sep 28, 2025vs CLE34 − 10W

LAR · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Dec 7, 2025at ARI45 − 17W
Nov 30, 2025at CAR28 − 31L
Nov 23, 2025vs TB34 − 7W
Nov 16, 2025vs SEA21 − 19W
Nov 9, 2025at SF42 − 26W
Nov 2, 2025vs NO34 − 10W
Oct 19, 2025at JAX35 − 7W
Oct 12, 2025at BAL17 − 3W
Oct 2, 2025vs SF23 − 26L
Sep 28, 2025vs IND27 − 20W