bayesRatings

Buccaneers at Rams

NFL · Sunday, Nov 23 · 7:20 PM CT · SoFi Stadium · Final TB 7 – LAR 34
← NFL / Nov 23, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TB07007
LAR14170334
Team box
TB·LAR
193
total yards
333
70
passing yards
263
123
rushing yards
70
14
first downs
20
7-17
third downs
4-10
2
turnovers
0
31:48
time of possession
28:12
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Baker MayfieldTB9/194112
Matthew StaffordLAR25/3527330
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Sean TuckerTB12420
Kyren WilliamsLAR12460
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Emeka EgbukaTB3320
Puka NacuaLAR7970

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAR +27
TB +27
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAR 27 · TB 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 31%, LAR 69% · Updated Nov 23, 2025

Expected margin
LAR by 6.2
Expected score
LAR 26.7 – 20.4 TB
Expected total
47.1
BuccaneersThe matchupRams
+224Our fair odds−224
20.4Expected points26.7
+0.30Power rating+0.87
25.2Points / game27.2
25.0Allowed / game17.2
332Total yards / game361
5.3Yards / play5.8
222Passing yards / game247
6−4Season record8−2
6−4Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · LAR chance
Our model fair30.8%69.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers+22431%————
LARLos Angeles Rams−22469%————
SpreadLAR by 6.2
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers+6.2our margin————
LARLos Angeles Rams−6.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 47.1
Over47.1our total————
Under47.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Rams by 6.2 expected
Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 46 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 45 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 44 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 43 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 42 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 41 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 40 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 39 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 38 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 37 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 36 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 35 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 34 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 33 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 32 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 31 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 30 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 29 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 28 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 27 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 26 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 25 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 24 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 23 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 22 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 21 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 20 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 19 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 18 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 17 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 16 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 15 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 14 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 13 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 12 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 11 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 10 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 9 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 7 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 6 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3 points: 7%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 2 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 3 points: 7%Los Angeles Rams by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 6 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 7 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 17 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 18 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 20 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 21 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 24 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 31 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 32 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 34 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 35 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 46 points: <1%
← TB wins byLAR wins by →
Los Angeles Rams wins by 3 or more60%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 7 or more45%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 10 or more36%
Within 3 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

47.1 expected
13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 1%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 40.566%
Total over 47.546%
Total over 54.529%
Total from 41 to 5437%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
TBBaker Mayfield · last 3 games: 62% completions, 199 yds/game, 4 TD, 1 INTstarted
LARMatthew Stafford · last 3 games: 66% completions, 230 yds/game, 10 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·LAR
Nov 16, 2025 at BUF
last game
Nov 16, 2025 vs SEA
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 10+ games
TB·LAR
+0.30
rating (0 = average)
+0.87
25.2
points / game
27.2
25.0
points allowed / game
17.2
6−4
season record
8−2
2−2
home record
4−1
4−2
away record
4−1
L2
streak
W5
6−4
last 10
8−2
332
total yards / game
361
5.3
yards / play
5.8
222
passing yards / game
247
110
rushing yards / game
114
19.6
first downs / game
22.7
0.7
turnovers / game
0.8

Rating Trend

TB · LAR · 32 days
Tampa Bay BuccaneersLos Angeles Rams
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · LAR 2−1
Nov 6, 2022at TBTB 16 − 13
Jan 23, 2022at TBLAR 30 − 27post
Sep 26, 2021at LARLAR 34 − 24

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Nov 16, 2025at BUF32 − 44L
Nov 9, 2025vs NE23 − 28L
Oct 26, 2025at NO23 − 3W
Oct 20, 2025at DET9 − 24L
Oct 12, 2025vs SF30 − 19W
Oct 5, 2025at SEA38 − 35W
Sep 28, 2025vs PHI25 − 31L
Sep 21, 2025vs NYJ29 − 27W
Sep 15, 2025at HOU20 − 19W
Sep 7, 2025at ATL23 − 20W

LAR · Last 10

8−2 · streak W5
Nov 16, 2025vs SEA21 − 19W
Nov 9, 2025at SF42 − 26W
Nov 2, 2025vs NO34 − 10W
Oct 19, 2025at JAX35 − 7W
Oct 12, 2025at BAL17 − 3W
Oct 2, 2025vs SF23 − 26L
Sep 28, 2025vs IND27 − 20W
Sep 21, 2025at PHI26 − 33L
Sep 14, 2025at TEN33 − 19W
Sep 7, 2025vs HOU14 − 9W