bayesRatings

Rams at Panthers

NFL · Sunday, Nov 30 · 12:00 PM CT · Bank of America Stadium · Final LAR 28 – CAR 31
← NFL / Nov 30, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAR7140728
CAR1437731
Team box
LAR·CAR
379
total yards
358
227
passing yards
194
152
rushing yards
164
22
first downs
17
2-5
third downs
7-15
3
turnovers
0
24:44
time of possession
35:16
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Matthew StaffordLAR18/2824322
Bryce YoungCAR15/2020630
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Blake CorumLAR7811
Chuba HubbardCAR17830
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Xavier SmithLAR3820
Jalen CokerCAR4741

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CAR +7
LAR +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CAR 7 · LAR 7lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAR 77%, CAR 23% · Updated Nov 30, 2025

Expected margin
LAR by 10.7
Expected score
LAR 26.3 – 15.6 CAR
Expected total
41.9
RamsThe matchupPanthers
−330Our fair odds+330
26.3Expected points15.6
+1.03Power rating−0.57
27.8Points / game18.0
16.3Allowed / game22.4
358Total yards / game307
5.8Yards / play4.9
248Passing yards / game185
9−2Season record6−6
8−2Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAR chance · CAR chance
Our model fair76.8%23.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LARLos Angeles Rams−33077%————
CARCarolina Panthers+33023%————
SpreadLAR by 10.7
LARLos Angeles Rams−10.7our margin————
CARCarolina Panthers+10.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 41.9
Over41.9our total————
Under41.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Rams by 10.7 expected
Los Angeles Rams by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 37 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 36 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 35 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 34 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 33 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 32 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 31 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 30 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 28 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 25 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 24 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 23 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 22 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 21 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 20 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 19 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 18 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 17 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 14 points: 5%Los Angeles Rams by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 7 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 3 points: 6%Los Angeles Rams by 2 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Carolina Panthers by 1 point: 1%Carolina Panthers by 2 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 3 points: 4%Carolina Panthers by 4 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 5 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 6 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 7 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 8 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 9 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 10 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 11 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 12 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 13 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 14 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 15 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 16 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 17 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 18 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 19 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 20 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 21 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 22 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 23 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 24 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 25 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 26 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 27 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 28 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 29 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 30 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 31 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 32 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 33 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 34 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 35 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 36 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 37 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 38 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 39 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 40 points: <1%
← LAR wins byCAR wins by →
Los Angeles Rams wins by 3 or more73%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 7 or more60%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 10 or more53%
Within 3 points either way17%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

41.9 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 34.570%
Total over 41.549%
Total over 48.530%
Total from 35 to 4840%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
LARMatthew Stafford · last 3 games: 65% completions, 228 yds/game, 9 TD, 0 INTstarted
CARBryce Young · last 3 games: 67% completions, 247 yds/game, 4 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAR·CAR
Nov 23, 2025 vs TB
last game
Nov 24, 2025 at SF
6 days
days of rest
5 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
LAR·CAR
+1.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.57
27.8
points / game
18.0
16.3
points allowed / game
22.4
9−2
season record
6−6
5−1
home record
3−2
4−1
away record
3−4
W6
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
6−4
358
total yards / game
307
5.8
yards / play
4.9
248
passing yards / game
185
110
rushing yards / game
122
22.5
first downs / game
19.3
0.7
turnovers / game
1.4

Rating Trend

LAR · CAR · 36 days
Los Angeles RamsCarolina Panthers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · CAR 0−1
Oct 16, 2022at LARLAR 24 − 10

LAR · Last 10

8−2 · streak W6
Nov 23, 2025vs TB34 − 7W
Nov 16, 2025vs SEA21 − 19W
Nov 9, 2025at SF42 − 26W
Nov 2, 2025vs NO34 − 10W
Oct 19, 2025at JAX35 − 7W
Oct 12, 2025at BAL17 − 3W
Oct 2, 2025vs SF23 − 26L
Sep 28, 2025vs IND27 − 20W
Sep 21, 2025at PHI26 − 33L
Sep 14, 2025at TEN33 − 19W

CAR · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Nov 24, 2025at SF9 − 20L
Nov 16, 2025at ATL30 − 27W
Nov 9, 2025vs NO7 − 17L
Nov 2, 2025at GB16 − 13W
Oct 26, 2025vs BUF9 − 40L
Oct 19, 2025at NYJ13 − 6W
Oct 12, 2025vs DAL30 − 27W
Oct 5, 2025vs MIA27 − 24W
Sep 28, 2025at NE13 − 42L
Sep 21, 2025vs ATL30 − 0W